The Denver Broncos notified QB Russell Wilson that he will be released after the league year begins on March 13. The team made the news public in a statement released on their website, attributed to general manager George Paton and head coach Sean Payton:
"We spoke with Russell Wilson today to inform him of his release after the start of the league year. On behalf of the Broncos, we thank Russell for his contributions and dedication to our team and community while wishing him the best as he continues his career. As we move forward, we are focused on building the strongest team possible for the 2024 season and beyond. We are excited to improve this offseason and will have the flexibility to get better through the draft and free agency."
Wilson released a statement thanking the city of Denver, several teammates, the team's cafeteria workers, and Ray Jackson, vice president of player development. His statement did not mention Payton, Paton, or the team's ownership.
Wilson ended his statement by writing, "Tough times don't last, but tough people do. God's got me. I am excited for what's next."
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Salary Cap Implications
The Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $242.6 million deal after his arrival and, as ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold notes, will take an $85 million hit in dead money over the next two seasons because of the release. You might wonder how such a monstrous hit is possible in the salary cap era.
As Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio explained, the Broncos releasing Wilson when the new league year begins allows them to spread the cap consequences over 2024 and 2025 -- assuming they designate him as a post-June 1 cut (had Denver kept Wilson beyond March 17, his $37 million salary for 2025 would have become fully guaranteed).
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero pointed out that the Broncos will be out $39 million in cash, minus offsets (more on that below) in 2024. The cap hit this year will be $35.4 million. Those numbers will change in 2025. They'll be out no cash, but the cap hit will be $49.6 million. Wilson will be entirely off their books in 2026.
Pelissero added: "A $255.4 million salary cap makes that pill go down a little easier . . ."
Easier. Not easily. Footballguy Dave Kluge pointed out that the $85 million camp hit the Broncos are taking is more than 2022 Matt Ryan ($40.5 million) and 2023 Aaron Rodgers ($40.3 million) combined.
As for the offsets, nobody at Broncos headquarters will be getting too excited about that.
The $39 million he's due this year will be reduced by however much Wilson earns from a new team in 2024. Go ahead and assume that salary will be for the veteran minimum, no matter where he lands. Since Wilson has 10-plus years of experience, his minimum salary is $1.21 million.
With an appealing price tag, there will be suitors. Some believe the Raiders (who will give Wilson two shots a year at Payton and the Broncos) will be first in line, but the Steelers have been mentioned as well.
Fantasy Football Impact
The immediate fantasy impact is minimal. The move was expected. Payton all but said as much during last week's Scouting Combine press conference. "I saw this humorous meme the other day where there's a Broncos fan with a shirt on with like eight quarterbacks' names crossed through them, and he's drinking the quarterback Kool-Aid," the coach explained. "Our job is to make sure this next one doesn't have a line through it."
"This next one" didn't leave a lot of wiggle room or much to the imagination.
So, who is this next one?
Jarrett Stidham is currently next man up, and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport believes the fifth-year signal caller will get a shot to compete.
Who he'll compete with remains to be seen. According to Denver Post staffer Ryan McFadden, the list of candidates includes incoming rookies Bo Nix of Oregon, Washington's Michael Penix Jr., and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. Veteran free agents who might be of interest include Gardner Minshew, Jameis Winston, and Ryan Tannehill.
Another possibility? Trading for Chicago's Justin Fields, who will likely be available on the cheap, with other potential suitors (most notably the Falcons) seeming to lose interest. One problem? The Broncos gave up four draft picks to acquire Wilson, which didn't work out well. As McFadden suggests, it won't require a Wilson-type trade package to acquire Fields, but should Denver keep parting ways with draft picks?
It's a fair question.
We'll be watching for more on this, but our own Cecil Lammey told Sigmund Bloom and listeners of The Audible last week that McCarthy, whose stock is on the rise, isn't going to make it past the Broncos, who have the 12th pick overall in April's draft.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
The uncertainty under center in Denver will continue to dampen enthusiasm for receiving assets like Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, who are available as WR49 and WR61, respectively, in Underdog best ball drafts. They sit slightly higher in the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings (Sutton is WR42 while Jeudy is WR46). Greg Dulcich is currently available as TE30 with an Average Draft Position (ADP) outside Round 20.
One player worth watching, especially if Denver goes with a rookie QB, is Javonte Williams. While his 2023 return from a three-ligament knee injury ended up disappointing fantasy managers, there's reason to believe the fourth-year man, a full year-plus removed from that injury, can outperform his current RB30 ADP on Underdog (and RB22 ADP on BestBall 10s). While Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine will still be on board, banking on Williams to get more than last year's 217 carries (McLaughlin got 80; Perine 53) seems quite reasonable in Rounds 7 to 8.
Stock Watch
Risers
Fallers
Overview
The Broncos informed QB Russell Wilson he'll be released, ending a disappointing two-year relationship. How Denver they fill the void? There are free-agent options, but April's draft will offer opportunities. That said, ESPN.com notes with the No. 12 pick, Denver sits in the middle of a stretch of teams -- between the Vikings (No. 11) and Raiders (No. 13) -- that also might be in the market for a rookie QB, things could get dicey. As for Wilson, Pittsburgh and Las Vegas could emerge as suitors. We'll all be watching it closely in the coming weeks.
