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Quarterback value stretches deeper than usual this year, with potential every-week QB1s going outside of the top 100 picks and even a few viable players going outside the top 150. You can go into your draft with clarity that you're *not* going to take a quarterback in the first eight rounds. The more difficult question is how to use the schedule to put together two quarterback picks that complement each other and give you a better chance of hanging with the teams that took quarterbacks early if you time hot streaks and matchup plays to maximize scoring potential. How do the quarterbacks going outside of the top 100 picks in Footballguys consensus ADP fit in a quarterback by committee (QBBC) approach?
First, we have to sort out the quality of matchups. Yes, strength of schedule projections are always wrong. Just like fantasy ADP is always wrong. However, we can still use them to provide a starting point for analysis. We can use a combination of backward-looking acknowledgement of last year's standouts and creampuffs and forward-looking projections of quality of defense with offseason changes to sort out defenses into three categories: TARGET, AVOID, and UNCLEAR.
Many of us could write many articles on the proper criteria to do such a sort, and I could spill many words on the screen right now to explain how I made these lists. But for the sake of brevity, I'll just present them. I'm sure you might change the categorization for a few teams, and there is definitely room for disagreement. But those minor disagreements don't really change the actionable advice of this article.
TARGET (11): Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Las Vegas, Dallas, Washington, Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, Arizona
Notice that every NFC South team except Tampa Bay is on this list. Hello, Bucs passing game! FYI, they play teams on this list from Week 13-17… and teams on the avoid list from Weeks 2-5. However, this article focuses on your strategy when you only select quarterbacks after Baker Mayfield is off the board. Let's make a mental reminder that Mayfield will be a good buy low in October when Chris Godwin is about to return in case our QBBC picks bust in September.
AVOID (10): Seattle, Houston, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Denver, Chicago, New York Jets, Cleveland, Pittsburgh
The defenses here are listed in roughly the order of how good we should expect them to be. The last few aren't quite as scary as the first few.
UNSURE (11): Detroit, New England, Indianapolis, Buffalo, Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay, New York Giants, Green Bay, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco
These defenses are either solid, but not elite, or strong in some areas and weak in others. They don't present obviously good or bad matchups, although that could change during the season. A few of these teams will turn into AVOID or TARGET defenses for at least a stretch during the season, just like a few of the TARGET/AVOID teams will make us UNSURE about that status, and perhaps even jump or slide to the other end of the spectrum.
Now that we've got that sorted out, we can evaluate the quarterbacks that could possibly fit into a QBBC approach in a draft.
Cliff's Notes
Some QBBCs to consider (in order of preference):
- Justin Herbert and Drake Maye
- Drake Maye and Bryce Young
- Justin Herbert and Bryce Young
- Caleb Williams and Drake Maye
- Jordan Love and Drake Maye
- Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence
- Jordan Love and Drake Maye
- Justin Herbert and Michael Penix Jr.
If you want the cheapest QBBC possible:
Leadoff Hitters
These quarterbacks are viable options to give you solid starts in the first part of the 2025 season.
Michael Penix Jr., ATL (Footballguys ADP: QB21, 150 overall)
Penix could be very intriguing for fantasy if he adds value as a runner. He opens with the Bucs at home, which was a 36-30 overtime shootout with a Kirk Cousins 509-yard, four-touchdown performance last year. Week 2 is a potentially rough matchup at the AVOID Vikings, but Weeks 3 and 4 are juicy with Carolina and Washington on the schedule. Penix threw for 312 yards and two scores and ran in another against the Panthers in Week 18 last year. After that, Penix has a Week 5 bye, and the seas get a little choppy but navigable (BUF @SF, MIA @NE, @IND) before he meets the Panthers again in Week 11, followed by a trip to New Orleans in Week 12. Weeks 13 and 14 are AVOID matchups with the Jets and Seahawks, but a fantasy playoff trio of @TB, @ARI, and LAR is manageable. It's possible that Penix could start hot and do some heavy lifting for your QBBC, but the team is down to a third-string right tackle, so they might be conservative on offense to protect their injury-prone quarterback.
Recommendation: He has lost some luster after the team saw their right tackle (his blindside) and swing tackle go down, but if you want Penix, pair him up with Justin Herbert. Penix's strong Week 1 and 3 matchups cover Herbert's early landmines of the Chiefs and Broncos, and both get hot in October, creating trade possibilities.
Bryce Young, CAR (Footballguys ADP: QB23, 158 overall)
You might not have much interest in Young, but that will change after you see his early schedule. The Panthers face TARGET pass defenses in five of the first six weeks. Things should be a lot smoother in year two of the Dave Canales offense. They do have a Week 14 bye and face the fearsome Seahawks in the fantasy championship, but it's possible that Young starts hot and remains your QB1 through most of the season.
Recommendation: Worth a pick as your QB2, no matter who your QB1 is, but especially if your QB1 might start slow.
Caleb Williams, CHI (Footballguys ADP: QB14, 108 overall)
You won't want to play Williams in Week 1 against the Vikings as the Bears give the Ben Johnson offense the first spin around the block against a tough defense, but after that, they draw Detroit and then four straight TARGET defenses, broken up by a bye to help self-assess and work out the kinks. The Bears have a gauntlet of @MIN, PIT, @PHI, @GB, CLE, and GB in Weeks 11-16. Perhaps this offense will be humming by then, and matchups won't matter. But it's best to take a quarterback you are good with starting Week 1 and maybe most of the second half of the year to pair with him.
Recommendation: Pair him with Drake Maye (vs Las Vegas Week 1) or Trevor Lawrence (vs Carolina Week 1).
Jordan Love, GB (Footballguys ADP: QB18, 120 overall)
Before we get into Love's schedule, know that he had thumb surgery on his non-throwing hand during camp, Jayden Reed (foot) may or may not be ready for Week 1, and multiple players on the offensive line are banged up. So you might not want to start Love Week 1 against the Lions defense that mostly held him in check last year. After that, three of the next four matchups are TARGET defense, and the team has a Week 5 bye during that stretch to get healthy. Love does close with the Bears, at Denver, the Bears again, and Baltimore, all cold-weather games against solid to great defenses, so you aren't going to use him in the fantasy playoffs.
Recommendation: Like Williams, Love pairs well with Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence, but he's cheaper than Williams.
Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Footballguys ADP: QB20, 141 overall)
The Jaguars may have some growing pains as they learn Liam Coen's offense with a line that is still gelling, but the good news is that you couldn't ask for a better opening combo than Carolina and Cincinnati to help an offense gain confidence. The Texans, 49ers, Chiefs, and Seahawks (along with a bye) make up the next five weeks of his schedule. Only Houston is a foreboding matchup from Weeks 9-14, so Lawrence should be rolling by the time he draws the challenging Jets and Broncos matchups in Weeks 15 and 16.
Recommendation: Lawrence pairs well with Love for a cheap QBBC with upside, but he's not a preferred QBBC option.
Daniel Jones, IND (Footballguys ADP: QB32)
Expect Jones ADP to jump into the 15th round range, this ADP is based on the assumption through most of camp that the Colts would pick Anthony Richardson Sr. if the competition was close. Jones opens against the makeshift Dolphins secondary. If he can survive Week 1 against the Broncos, the Titans, Rams, Raiders, and Cardinals could allow Jones to heat up. He adds value as a runner and has a lot of talented passcatchers to throw to. Jones might surprise us at first.
Recommendation: You can use Jones to cover Week 1 for Williams or Love, but you can't expect him to be a quarterback you'll still want to be considering in the second half of the season. Consider him a QBBC leadoff hitter in the event that you wait as long as possible before taking a quarterback.
Closers
These quarterbacks are viable options to give you solid starts in the last part of the 2025 season.
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