The fantasy football season is over, which means we need a playoff contest to use everything we've learned this season to prove our acumen. Luckily, the NFFC has us covered with their "Postseason Hold 'em" and "Mini Playoff Hold 'em" contest. Like all playoff contests, it requires a combination of picking the best fantasy scorers and predicting the winners of playoff games to take home the $125,000 (on a $200 entry, with a maximum of 1650 entries!) first prize or $50,000 (on a $50 entry, with a maximum of 2500 entries!) first prize. The rules are somewhat straightforward, save for a twist that will reward the most forward-thinking entries. You need your lineup to score the most points to win! Simple enough.
Rules and Scoring (Read this before going on!)
Let's try to build a perfect Week 1 lineup for this four-week contest.
The Task
The beauty of this contest is the simplicity. From the contest Rules:
Each week, the number of points an NFL player earns for you will be multiplied by the number of consecutive weeks he has been on your roster, rewarding fantasy players who correctly predict top players on this year's teams that compete in the Championship game. Players selected in round 1 who have first-round byes automatically earn two times their total points during Week 2 of the playoffs.
There's your twist. The most important thing to get right in your lineup is to have the highest-scoring player on the Super Bowl teams in your opening lineup. If you don't have a 4X scoring multiplier on a high-performing player in the Super Bowl, then you are sunk.
STEP 1: Eliminate the Suck - Unmasking Two Pretenders
Footballguys co-founder David Dodds "Eliminate the Suck" mantra is the first step in building our lineup. Addition by subtraction. Let's identify the two teams least likely to make the Super Bowl and make those the two teams that aren't included in our lineup.
STRIKE 1: Carolina
The Panthers opened as 10-point underdogs against the Rams despite beating them 31-28 in Carolina on November 30. No other game opened with a line over 3.5. If you believe lightning can strike twice in the same place, feel free to swap out Carolina for the team you have the lowest confidence in.
STRIKE 2: Chicago
It might seem a bit unorthodox to pick against a home favorite in the Wild Card round, especially one that would likely host a divisional game against a team they beat on the road earlier in the season. The Bears needed to recover an onside kick to beat the Packers in Week 16, and that was with Jordan Love getting knocked out of the game in the first half. Their offensive performance against the Lions in Week 18 was also flat, and the Packers have an edge in playoff experience.
STEP 2: Fill in the "Free Squares" - Select Standout Performers
Another simple and probative way to take more guesswork out of this task is to have a "draft" of each team's players. How much of a dropoff is there from the top player to the #2 option? Where there is no question who a team's top fantasy asset is, and that player is someone we would take early in fantasy drafts, we have "free squares" - players who should be in every lineup:
RB1: Christian McCaffrey (SF)
WR1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
WR2: Puka Nacua (LAR)
WR3: Nico Collins (HOU)
Smith-Njigba is a layup with the Seahawks' split backfield running game sputtering at times, and Sam Darnold is unreliable for fantasy. McCaffrey is a layup with tight end folded into wide receiver, knocking George Kittle out of the elite. Even if the 49ers somehow make a run, it is unlikely to be on the back of Brock Purdy after he was humbled by Seattle in the season finale. Collins is a layup after the Texans rested him for Week 18 as a signature player, and especially after the Steelers gave up two long touchdowns to Zay Flowers and needed Tyler Loop to miss a 44-yard field goal to win the division.
Selecting Nacua does cause more pause. Matthew Stafford could be the highest scorer in the entire playoffs with six-point passing touchdowns, and he could even be the key to a winning lineup if he throws a bushel of touchdowns in the Super Bowl and Nacua is not a big part of the effort. It's not difficult to move on quickly from Stafford when you see how much closer the other fantasy quarterbacks are to him than the rest of the playoff wide receivers are to Nacua. Nacua averaged 23.4 points per game in PPR leagues. Other than Smith-Njigba (who was at 21.7), the next highest average among playoff wide receivers is actually Nacua's teammate, Davante Adams. at 15.9. Nacua it is.
STEP 3: Select Your Quarterbacks/Project the Playoff Bracket
In a contest with six-point passing touchdowns, you're going to need to have at least one of the Super Bowl quarterbacks in to have a chance to win. It's possible that the Texans face one of the NFC West power trio, and you have neither starting quarterback. However, in that case, you would still likely need one or both losing quarterbacks in the conference championship games to have a 3X multiplier. So, selecting your quarterbacks is playoff fantasy football at its finest. You can't get distracted by the shiny object of a high weekly quarterback ceiling if you don't have confidence that their team will advance to at least the conference championship.
So before we select our quarterbacks, we need to have some clarity on how far we think the teams we haven't used yet can make it.
AFC Remaining Teams Projection
Denver: In the best-case scenario for their first playoff game, the Broncos will face a Steelers team that won a defensive struggle with the Texans. They could face a Chargers team they lost a 23-20 nail-biter to in their only matchup with Justin Herbert, if the Chargers can go to Foxboro and knock off the Patriots. The most likely scenarios are a matchup with a Texans team they beat 18-15 in Houston on one of their many furious fourth-quarter comebacks with C.J. Stroud knocked out of the game with a concussion, or Josh Allen coming off a win against the hottest team in the AFC on the road. At best, those are coin-flip games. Then to face a team that had already won two playoff games, even at home, with Bo Nix having no playoff experience to date...
Verdict: One or two and done.
New England: This is a live team because of head coach Mike Vrabel's experience coaching an overachieving Titans team to the AFC Championship game and being a tough out for Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow in two other playoff appearances. Drake Maye has no postseason experience, while the Chargers defense is no slouch, so one-and-done isn't completely out of the question. But Maye also split two matchups with Josh Allen, and it's not hard to picture the Patriots beating the Jaguars or Texans in Foxboro or the Broncos in Denver. It's rare for a quarterback to advance all the way to the Super Bowl in his first trip to the postseason, but it is possible.
Verdict: The Patriots can hang with anyone in the AFC, but it's hard to pick a quarterback in his first postseason to go to the Super Bowl. It's very much within the range of possibilities, though, because of Mike Vrabel.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars haven't lost since blowing a 19-point fourth-quarter lead to Davis Mills in Week 10. They only played one playoff team in that stretch, but it was a resounding 34-20 win at Denver. It's a tough draw to get the best quarterback in the AFC bracket (Josh Allen) as a Wild Card matchup in Liam Coen's first playoff game, but Trevor Lawrence has led a playoff comeback win over the Chargers in the 2022 postseason, a Jameis Winston-esque four-touchdown, four-interception performance, and Lawrence's Jaguars were in the game until the fourth quarter at Arrowhead the following week. If they can vanquish Allen in the Wild Card round, the Jaguars should become the favorite to go to the Super Bowl, if they are not already.
Verdict: If they can beat Josh Allen, they're a good bet to go to the Super Bowl.
Pittsburgh: The Steelers can beat the Texans if the game turns into a defensive stalemate, and they did beat Drake Maye in New England this season (thanks to five Patriots turnovers, including two at the goal line), but this team is not going on a Super Bowl run.
Verdict: Next.
Buffalo: This is the year, right? No Burrow, no Mahomes, no problem. Well, there may be a problem. The Bills are a flawed team lacking a downfield passing game, and defenses like Houston and Philadelphia frustrated Josh Allen in losses. Their defense can be suspect and could force Allen to pull a rabbit out of a hat to win. He usually does it, but that is no Plan A going into the playoffs. On top of all that, they are facing a team that is peaking in Jacksonville to open the playoffs, and Allen is nursing a foot injury. I want to Billeive, but this hasn't looked like a team that can put together three straight wins against playoff-level opponents without a lot of bounces going their way.
Verdict: The percentage of rosters with Allen will be higher than his chances of making the Super Bowl.
LA Chargers: Jim Harbaugh has Justin Herbert playing looser, and the Chargers' pass offense gives him talented players to connect with on inspired throws. The defense has been better since a midseason trade for Odafe Oweh bolstered the pass rush. They are battle-tested with wins over Denver, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia, and they took Patrick Mahomes II's best punch before ending the Chiefs' season. They also hung around against a tough Texans team in Week 17 after surrendering two early long touchdown passes. Like Harbaugh, this team is cagey. Herbert is talented, but we haven't seen him summon it during the postseason (yet), and the Chargers' offensive line has been a problem since Joe Alt went down for the second time. It's not outlandish to see them beating Drake Maye in his first playoff game, and if they can do that, they know they can play with the Broncos in the divisional round. We can't count them out completely, but they are a relative long shot.
Verdict: A Super Bowl run isn't impossible, but it is unlikely.
NFC Remaining Teams Projection
Philadelphia: The offense has been underwhelming, but the Eagles still have a very strong defense, a lot of playoff experience, and game-changers on offense. Their strengths match up well with the 49ers' defensive weaknesses, and Brock Purdy was tentative against an aggressive Seattle offense in the season finale. The Eagles lost to the Bears in a humiliating run defense performance in the first matchup, but that is probably the best-case scenario for the divisional round. If the Eagles advance and the Packers beat the Bears, then the Rams will be coming to Philadelphia for the second straight postseason unless they are upset (again) by the Panthers. The Eagles did beat the Rams earlier in the season with a Jalen Hurts-led comeback capped with a Jordan Davis blocked field goal and return for a touchdown. Last year's playoff matchup also came down to the final play.
Verdict: They aren't the favorite, but they are certainly among the top three most likely Super Bowl teams in the NFC.
Green Bay: You know, if the Packers still had Micah Parsons, they would probably be the #2 seed and considered a legit contender. They don't, but it's not a stretch to envision them winning in Chicago, and if they can get to Sam Darnold, they can hang in a defensive struggle at Seattle in the divisional round. We have also already seen them play the Eagles almost straight up in a 10-7 rock fight. This team has some postseason experience and a rested Josh Jacobs; you never know.
Verdict: A long shot, but not to be completely overlooked.
