Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Matchup Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 4.
The first thing that stands out about the above data visualization is how much of an outlier Buffalo is. As of Wednesday morning, the Bills are 16.5-point favorites with a massive 32.5-point implied team total. The team total is 5.5 points higher than any other team on the slate, the biggest gap I can remember in recent seasons. In fact, Buffalo's team total is so high that it makes it more difficult to see the rest of the teams. I'm going to kick Buffalo's "off the chart" team total off the chart, to make the data visualization easier to see for the rest of the teams.
Note: The Pittsburgh-Minnesota game in Ireland is included in some all-day slates but is not on the main slate.
Upper Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but projected to score above the slate's average, making them strong candidates for potential shootouts. After three weeks with few obvious shootout spots, Week 4 finally delivers. Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Las Vegas all fit the bill as underdogs with healthy team totals. Each matchup offers intriguing GPP options, and any of these games could turn into slate-breaking environments.
Upper Right: These teams are favored and projected to score above average, making them strong plays for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts here often favor running backs. Detroit stands out as a massive favorite over Cleveland with the second-highest team total on the slate (behind Buffalo). While most teams have failed to run on the Browns, the Lions' rushing attack is built differently, and Cleveland's defense has shown cracks on the road in recent seasons. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are viable tournament options after both scored multiple touchdowns in Week 3.
Bottom Right: Teams in this quadrant are favored but projected to score below average. Running backs can still benefit from positive game scripts, but passing games carry risk with low totals.
Bottom Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs and projected to score below average. Exposure should be limited to players you have a strong conviction about. The Giants are the clearest example this week. Vegas totals suggest they are a team to fade, yet public interest could be high given the quarterback change and the emergence of Cam Skattebo.
DraftKings
Let's take a look at the top options on DraftKings according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").
Quarterback
Jaxson Dart: The Giants in Week 4 do not stand out as the type of team we typically want to target. They are 6.0-point underdogs with an implied team total of 18.75, the fourth-lowest on the slate. The Chargers have also allowed the tenth-fewest DraftKings PPG to opposing quarterbacks (15.2). Still, Dart's $4,500 price tag and dual-threat skill set make him an understandable popular option in both cash games and tournaments. He rushed for 52 yards and a touchdown in 75 preseason snaps and has an early sportsbook line of 33.5 rushing yards.
Drake Maye: How appealing Maye is this week depends on how much weight you put on small-sample defensive stats this early in the season. Through three weeks, no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (11.2) than the Panthers. However, this Carolina defense is largely the same group that gave up the second-most DraftKings PPG to quarterbacks in 2024 (21.7). If you lean more on last season's full data, Maye looks like a strong play. He is averaging 261.7 passing yards, 29.0 rushing yards, and 2.0 total touchdowns per game this year.