Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much they're favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
The visualization is a bit messy again this week due to overlapping lines and identical totals, but it’s still useful for grouping teams and understanding how the slate shapes up.
High-scoring heavy favorites (29.5-point totals)
Buffalo and Detroit are both 9.5-point favorites with identical 29.5-point team totals against the Dolphins and Commanders, respectively. As we’ll see in the matchup sections below, both games project as essentially neutral spots. Buffalo averages 29.4 points per game this season and Detroit 29.9, so these totals suggest we should expect each offense to perform roughly at its season baseline.
Teams clustered around 26 points
Five teams fall into a tight range between 25.5 and 26.5 points: the Rams (26.5), Seahawks (26.0), Ravens (26.0), Bears (25.5), and Buccaneers (25.5). Each is in a game expected to be competitive, with only Seattle favored by more than 3.5 points. Health is a key storyline here — both D’Andre Swift and Bucky Irving project as top early-week values but remain questionable. Their status could significantly impact roster construction and the overall shape of the slate.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 10 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
My first reaction when building lineups this week was that it is extremely difficult to find spots that feel great outside of the very high-priced players, who are tough to fit given the lack of obvious value on the slate. From a big-picture view, the general lack of green on the matchup table illustrates what will make the Week 10 main slate so challenging. There are a few offensively limited teams showing solid boosts, but none of the teams averaging 19 or more points per game this season have a Week 10 boost over 7%. In short, there are not many strong bets to outperform season averages, and even the offenses with slightly elevated totals often face difficult defensive matchups. The scarcity of strong spots makes the few standout ones jump off the page even more.
Cleveland
The Browns’ 27% scoring boost is impossible to ignore. The Jets just traded away their two best defensive players, which puts an asterisk on their season-long defensive numbers. They have allowed just 1.1 PPG above expectation to opposing running backs, but that was with Quinnen Williams anchoring the front. Quinshon Judkins profiles as a strong option given the respectable 20.0-point team total and the plus positional matchup.
Carolina
I made Rico Dowdle the cover player for a reason. He feels like the cleanest projection on the slate. The Panthers receive a healthy 19% scoring boost, and the Saints allow the 12th-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing running backs. Carolina is favored by 5.5 points, so if the game goes according to script, we should see a heavy dose of Dowdle.
Tampa Bay
The numbers point to this being a solid spot for the passing game. Tampa Bay’s 4% weekly boost ranks fifth-highest on the slate. The Patriots give up the sixth-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing quarterbacks and the fourth-most to wide receivers. Emeka Egbuka is no longer cheap, but he is still more affordable than the top-tier options, and that salary gap matters this week. His matchup stands out as one of the best on the slate.
New York Giants
There is no overall team boost here, as the Giants are projected right around their season average, but the passing matchups are excellent. Jaxson Dart, Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Theo Johnson all stood out when building early-week lineups. After being shredded by Joe Flacco last week, the Bears now allow the third-most fantasy points above expectation to both opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers.
Buffalo
This is a strong spot for both Josh Allen and James Cook. Both carry high salaries, but so does everyone else this week. If you are paying up, you could do a lot worse. Cook in particular looks like a sharp tournament option. His workload has steadily increased, and Miami’s run defense has been inconsistent, alternating between stout performances and games where they have been run over.