Dynasty Roundtable: Buy, Sell, Cut, Hold

Quarterbacks moving. The last couple of weeks have seen some significant shifts at quarterback. Time to poll the staff!

Question Of The Week

Caleb Williams, Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix, and Cam Ward are shifting values as young quarterbacks. 

Play "Buy, Sell, Cut, Hold" with this group!

Josh Fahlsing: Jeff is embracing his inner villain here on the eve of Halloween as he makes us cut bait on at least two quarterbacks who are either rookies or in their second year. None of these guys has even started growing hair on the chins of their pro careers. Some diabolical stuff, Bell, but I’ll play along.

Buy

Caleb Williams, Chicago

Corey Spala: Williams has played well this season despite having to learn a complicated system. Williams has shown flashes of his talent over the last two seasons, but it should be understood that time is needed when learning this new, complex system. It should be assumed he is essentially a rookie after last season's coaching disaster. There have been frustrations and growing pains, which is why Williams may be a better buy right now. I believe in Williams' long-term outlook, with his unique, exceptional talent, coming to fruition through development alongside Ben Johnson and Chicago moving forward.

Jeff Blaylock: Williams is a much better quarterback than much of the fantasy community thinks he is, which makes him a prime candidate to acquire in dynasty leagues. As Matt Waldman's thorough takedown of the anti-Williams frenzy explained, he's not remotely bad. 

In fact, he's among the league leaders in the situations where you need your quarterback to deliver: third- and fourth-and-long. Where does he rank among quarterbacks with at least 30 pass attempts in obvious passing situations: third and fourth downs with between 5 and 15 yards to go? 

• 4th in completion percentage (68.9 percent)
• 2nd in completion percentage over expected (+8.6 percent)
• 4th in passing yards (405), 
• 3rd in yards per attempt (9.00)
• 2nd in passer rating (110.0)
• 2nd-lowest off-target percentage (13.3 percent)
• 4th in first-down conversion rate per dropback (38.5 percent)

In those situations, he has a 0 percent turnover-worthy throw rate, according to Fantasy Point Data.

Far from believing his quarterback is bad, Ben Johnson is actually getting more out of him. Williams has shown significant improvement in these areas over his rookie season, when the former coaching staff criminally neglected his development and then criticized him for not developing fast enough. Yet, last year's failures continue to taint the perception of Williams as a quarterback, even though most of those failures weren't on Williams. 

The coaching is definitely better now. The offensive scheme is better. The playcalling is better. The offensive line is holding up better as well. He's been pressured on 39 percent of the time in these situations this season, versus 46 percent last season, and his sack rate has dropped to 20 percent of those situations from 38 percent a year ago. The bottom line is that Williams is better than many think, and he's demonstrating improvement under Johnson. Eventually, the fantasy community will figure this out, and any window to acquire him will close. So, acquire him now.

Hutchinson Brown: This Bears team has really started to click this year. Rome Odunze is establishing himself, Luther Burden III is beginning to flash, D'Andre Swift has had a couple of nice weeks since the bye in week five, and the first overall pick himself, Caleb Williams, is displaying a great step in the right direction in year two. He has progressed over the year in playing in Ben Johnson's scheme, making quick, efficient decisions. He is currently first in the NFL in time to throw at 3.16 seconds. There have been fewer crazy throws off balance that lead to picks and more of taking what the defense gives him, along with a few spectacular throws out of the system that very few could make. He has also discovered significant fantasy football value, offering us weekly QB1 upside. This is looking good for Chicago.

Jaxson Dart, NY Giants

Fahlsing: I think out of these four, Dart is the player who still has the best combination of pedigree, situation, and unrealized value. That makes him my buy. People already know he was my favorite quarterback coming out this year, but I still recognize that he carries plenty of risk. He’s a first-round pick, but a later one. He’s with Brian Daboll, who has a reputation for developing quarterbacks, but who ownership might already be prepping to toss out of a side door. He has an absolute stud at wide receiver to grow with, who had surgery this week to repair a torn ACL.  Still, even in a limited sample size, Dart has shown enough that it is obvious he’s going to get a chance to be the man going forward. If he hits, he’s a star quarterback on a rookie contract in an organization that plays in a market where they’ll have no choice but to spend the money to build a team around him. They have a good start with Dart, Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracey, and Wan’Wan'Dale Robinson. As Dart develops, his running mates get healthy going into his second year, and the organization continues to add pieces around him. I see him as the player in this list most likely to gain the most value in the short- to medium-term. The only problem? It might already be too late to get him at any discount.

Bo Nix, Denver

Mike Kashuba: Regardless of how you feel about the player, his performance, and how much of this is him versus the system, he’s scoring fantasy points at a fantastic rate and will be Denver’s starter for years to come. Despite being the QB5 on the season, he’s QB9 on keeptradecut and still isn’t rising fast enough. Houston is a brutal matchup, and the buy window on Nix might crack a little further open this week for reactionary dynasty managers.

Sell