Two fantasy playoff weeks. Two massive performances on Thursday night football, putting managers behind before their week starts. Week 15 was the Kyle Pitts Sr. explosion. Week 16 brought Puka Nacua delivering 2025’s single-game high in receiving yards, with 225. No more pump-up stories this week. If your team is still playing, you have good players; chip away as best you can.
Time to talk about what makes a good fantasy pick.
Over the last couple of seasons, I’ve written an article titled “The Perfect Draft.” The concept reflects on how league champions are built. Playoffs are what matter.
Fantasy social media was buzzing this past week about TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson was the RB3 in Week 15, delivering 29.1 fantasy points. Henderson was actively bad through the first nine weeks of the season, ranking as RB39. Henderson has been good over the last six weeks, ranking as the RB5.
Henderson’s average draft position (ADP) was RB18 and 45 overall. Was Henderson a good pick toward the end of the fourth round?
The answer is obviously yes.
Let’s start with the reason someone would say no. Primarily, the first nine weeks. RB39 is bad.
But what does it cost you?
Opportunity cost is the focus, and parsing through ADP, it was not much. The backs selected around Henderson: Ken Walker III (RB16), Alvin Kamara (RB17), Chuba Hubbard (RB19), James Conner (RB20), D'Andre Swift (RB21), RJ Harvey (RB22), Isiah Pacheco (RB23), David Montgomery (RB24), Tony Pollard (RB25), Aaron Jones Sr. (RB26), Kaleb Johnson (RB27). It’s called the deadzone for a reason, folks. Other than Swift, not a single one of those players was even in the same conversation as Henderson.
Wide receivers were a better pick, marginally. You still needed to navigate around Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, Mike Evans, Marvin Harrison Jr., Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, Xavier Worthy, Calvin Ridley, and Jerry Jeudy in a similar range.
You get the picture. The reality of fantasy drafts is that many of the players we view as sure things during the summer go sideways. One of my favorite parts of the perfect draft is the clarity of a hindsight viewpoint. In the abstract, we think about the bad with Henderson. We assume there was a better pick in that area of the draft. In reality, once we get out of the first three rounds, the bad vastly outweighs the good. Henderson is RB18 on the season (remember that ADP?) with 161.5 points. RB19, Jaylen Warren, is at 150.2. RB 23, Kenneth Gainwell, is at 140.8. A 20-point gap between RB18 and RB23. Wide receiver faces a similar gap, a nearly 20-point drop off from WR17 Tetairoa McMillan to WR23 Deebo Samuel Sr. Do the math. Around 20 running backs and 20 wide receivers, a handful of top quarterbacks and tight ends, and the player pool of impact players ends up relatively small. The vast majority of those guys are off the board before we arrive in Round 4 of our draft.
As you get through the fourth round, the odds of making an outright bad pick dramatically grow against you.
Drafting the overall RB3 from a playoff week who gives half a season of high-end production is without a doubt a good selection.
Fifteen games stand on the schedule; let’s get a fix.
Number Watch
Record Chases and Statistical Thresholds
Trey McBride, Arizona - 11 Receptions, 115 Receiving Yards
With 105 receptions, McBride is trending toward breaking Zach Ertz's single-season tight end receptions record of 116, needing 11 catches. DeAndre Hopkins holds the Cardinals franchise record of 115.
McBride has a shot at breaking Travis Kelce’s tight end yardage record. At 1,070 yards, he needs 346 over the final three games, an average of 115 per game. McBride has topped 115 three times in his last six games, averaging 99.2 over that period.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore - 191 Rushing Yards, 4 Rushing Touchdowns
Henry needs 191 rushing yards to catch Tony Dorsett for 10th on the career list. He sits four rushing touchdowns behind fourth-place Adrian Peterson. His next touchdown will break a tie with Gus Edwards for fourth on the Ravens' career list with 27.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City - 7 Receptions, 98 Receiving Yards
Kelce had his most receptions in a month last week, with seven. That allowed him to move past Reggie Wayne into 10th place on the career list. He can jump up to a tie with Terrell Owens for eighth with another seven-catch game, passing Anquan Bolden, who stands five away.
He is 23rd in career yards with 12,948. He needs 98 yards to pass Jason Witten and move into second on the career tight end yards list. Tony Gonzalez is first with 15,127.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit - 4 Receptions, 9 Receiving Yards
St. Brown needs four catches for his fourth straight 100 catch season. Antonio Brown holds the record with six consecutive 100-catch seasons. Brown shares the overall record with Brandon Marshall at six seasons of 100 catches.
Brown needs nine receiving yards to hit the 6,000-yard mark in his career. If he hits the mark on Sunday, he will join Ja'Marr Chase as the only players to top 6,000 yards in 81 career games or fewer.
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers - 46 Receiving Yards
Allen needs 46 yards to hit 12,000 for his career. He would be the 33rd player in NFL history to cross that threshold.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis - 2 Rushing Touchdowns
Taylor needs two rushing touchdowns to tie his own Colts record of 18. He already broke the career mark for the franchise this season.
Philip Rivers, Indianapolis - 528 Passing Yards
Rivers sat with 277 passing yards ahead of Matthew Stafford and in eighth place before Week 15 started. Stafford has since played an extra game and moved ahead of Rivers by 428 yards. It is unlikely Rivers will catch back up to Stafford, considering Stafford’s current production.
Rivers is working on catching Ben Roethlisberger, whom Stafford will move past next. Eventually, if Rivers can add 528 yards, he will end in seventh on the career list.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta - 6 Touchdown Passes
Cousins has 294 career touchdown passes and is tied with Carson Palmer at 15th on the career list. Six more touchdown passes would set him at an even 300 and tie him with John Elway for 14th.
George Kittle, San Francisco - 9 Receptions
Kittle is third on the 49ers franchise record book with 583 receptions. Terrell Owens is second with 592. Jerry Rice holds the record at 1,281.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati - 10 Receptions
Brown’s 58 catches are closing in on Joe Mixon’s Bengals team record of 68 for a running back. Brown has topped six catches in four of his last six games, averaging 5.5 per game during that run.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee - 153 Rushing Yards
Pollard is looking to join Derrick Henry and Najee Harris for the longest active 1,000-yard rushing season streak at four years. Henry has extended his mark for 2025, while Harris came into the year with four, and his streak ends. Pollard is the fantasy RB2 over the last two weeks with 265 rushing yards.
Pollard would earn a $250,000 incentive with 1,100 rushing yards and needs two rushing touchdowns to hit a $ 200,000 incentive.
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis - 5 Receptions, 8 Receiving Yards
Warren has 63 catches, trailing Josh Downs' franchise rookie record by five. He moved down into the ninth-most receptions by a rookie tight end in Week 15, as Harold Fannin Jr. passed him with 66. He needs 23 to reach Sam LaPorta for the second most. Brock Bowers is well ahead with 112.
Warren’s 718 yards are the tenth most by a rookie tight end; John Mackey’s eighth place is 8 yards away. Mackey’s 726 is the Colts' rookie tight end record.
Cameron Ward, Tennessee - 180 Passing Yards
Ward’s 2,638 passing yards are the second most by a Titans rookie. Marcus Mariota holds the team rookie record with 2,818.
Dak Prescott, Dallas - 9 Passing Touchdowns, 282 Passing Yards
Prescott is nine touchdown passes from tying Tony Romo for the Cowboys franchise record. He passed Romo in Cowboys passing yards earlier in the year.
Prescott is in 35th on the all-time passing yardage list. He is 99 yards from passing Jim Kelly and 282 from Alex Smith.
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland - 191 Rushing Yards, 4 Rushing Touchdowns
Judkins is fifth in rushing yards by a Browns rookie at 805. The Top 4 in team history: Nick Chubb (996), Trent Richardson (950), Jim Brown (942), and William Green (887).
Judkins has seven rushing touchdowns, tied with Travis Prentice and Ron Johnson for the fifth most in team history. The Top 4: Trent Richardson (11), Jim Brown (9), Nick Chubb (8), Isaiah Crowell (8).
De'Von Achane, Miami - 186 Rushing Yards
Achane’s 1,186 are the fifth most by a Dolphin in a season. He can move as high as second place, with Ricky Williams’ 1,372 from 2003 in that spot, 186 yards away. Williams holds the top spot at 1,853.
James Cook, Buffalo - 88 Rushing Yards
Cook’s 1,415 rushing yards are the sixth most in Bills history. Third place is within reach, with O.J. Simpson’s 1,503 from 1976 in that spot. Cook would need a monster finish to catch Simpson’s top two Bills seasons: 2,003 yards in 1973 and 1,817 in 1975.
Josh Allen, Buffalo - 290 Passing Yards, 4 Rushing Touchdowns
Allen can become the 56th player in NFL history with 30,000 passing yards, needing 290. He would pass Jon Kitna, Joe Ferguson, and Randall Cunningham in the process.
Allen has tied the second-highest rushing touchdown mark of his career with 12. The team's record for rushing touchdowns is 16, held by Cook and Simpson. Allen’s career high is 15 from 2003. Allen’s 15 rushing touchdowns are an NFL record for a quarterback; he shares the mark with Jalen Hurts.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati - 26 Receptions / 11 Receptions, 126 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns
Chase has a chance to break his own franchise record, needing 26 catches to equal his 127 from 2024.
He sits just outside of the Top 5 in Bengals history for receptions and receiving yards. He needs 11 catches to tie T.J. Houshmandzadeh for fifth and 126 yards for fifth place ,Cris Collinsworth. Two touchdowns would tie him with Isaac Curtis for fourth in Bengals touchdowns.
The following players are less than 110 yards from crossing the 1,000-yard rushing threshold:
- Rico Dowdle, Carolina (22 yards away)
- Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville (51)
- Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia (60)
- D'Andre Swift, Chicago (65)
- Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco (78)
- Breece Hall, NY Jets (100)
- Josh Jacobs, Green Bay (110)
The following players are less than 118 yards from crossing the 1,000-yard receiving threshold:
- CeeDee Lamb, Dallas (24 yards away)
- Zay Flowers, Baltimore (41)
- Jameson Williams, Detroit (64)
- Chris Olave, New Orleans (104)
- DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia (111)
- Courtland Sutton, Denver (114)
- Wan'Dale Robinson, NY Giants (118)
Contract Incentives
Running Backs
Javonte Williams, Dallas - 9 Scrimmage Yards
Williams is close to the final incentive in his contract for passing 1,250 scrimmage yards. At 1,241 scrimmage yards, he needs nine more yards to unlock $250,000.
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City - 71 Scrimmage Yards
Hunt has 679 scrimmage yards. He has multiple bonuses in his contract and will earn $25,000 at 750 yards. The following are non-cumulative, meaning he only gets the highest earned: 905 scrimmage yards for $125,000 / 1,000 for $375,000 / 1,250 for $625,000.
Rico Dowdle, Carolina - 113 Scrimmage Yards, 1 Touchdown
Dowdle has already unlocked $ 1.75 million in multiple incentives. He has two more thresholds at 1,350 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. He needs 113 scrimmage yards to earn $1 million, and one touchdown will earn $ 250,000.
Jordan Mason, Minnesota - 141 Rushing Yards
Mason has 659 rushing yards; at 800, he would earn $ 200,000, with another $350,000 at 900.
Nick Chubb, Houston - 128 Rushing Yards
Chubb earned $250,000 at 600 rushing yards; he will enter Week 16 with 472.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - 287 Scrimmage Yards
Barkley has a $250,000 bonus at 1,500 scrimmage yards. He is currently at 1,213, 287 away.
Additionally, he needs 60 rushing yards to unlock a second incentive for the postseason. A 1,000 rushing yard season with an NFC Championship is $250,000, while a Super Bowl would be $500,000.
Wide Receivers
Mack Hollins, New England - 1 Reception
Hollins has 39 receptions. He has a $300,000 contract bonus for 40 receptions, then another $400,000 for 50.
Stefon Diggs, New England - 3 Receptions
Diggs needs three catches to earn a $500,000 bonus.
Deebo Samuel Sr., Washington - 5 Receptions, 96 Receiving Yards, 2 Rushing Touchdowns, 2 Touchdowns
Samuel has 65 receptions, 604 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns, and one rushing touchdown.
There are multiple non-cumulative incentive thresholds in his contract. He earned the $250,000 incentive with 60 receptions, and an additional $200,000 kicks in at both 70 and 80. His yardage is structured the same way, with $250,000 at 700, and another $200,000 at 800 and 900. A $250,000 bonus kicks in at eight total touchdowns and increases by $125,000 for each touchdown up to 12.
He is operating under the same contract he signed in San Francisco when there was pushback about his rushing usage. He earns $ 250,000 for three rushing touchdowns or 380 rushing yards. He has just 49 rushing yards, but with one rushing touchdown already, he could earn the money via that method.
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers - 3 Receptions, 12 Receptions, 70 Receiving Yards, 195 Receiving Yards, 2 Touchdowns
Allen signed an incentive-laden deal that includes four steps of $250,000 each, followed by a final step of $750,000 at reception and yardage thresholds.
With 68 receptions, he is nearly through that portion, earning $250,000 at 71 and $750,000 at 80. He has 680 yards and has unlocked the first two steps; the next two are 750 and 875, with 1,000 the final barrier. His touchdowns are structured slightly differently, with $250,000 at each of six and eight. He has four.
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco - 16 Receptions, 105 Receiving Yards
Jennings can earn $ 666,667 bonus for 60 receptions, 600 yards. He sits at 44 catches with 495 yards.
Marquise Brown, Kansas City - 6 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown
Brown has non-cumulative contract incentives (he can only unlock one level): $500,000 at five touchdowns, plus $250,000 for six and seven touchdowns. His yardage is structured slightly differently: $500,000 at 500 yards, then an additional $125,000 at 625 and 750, before jumping another $750,000 at 1,000.
He enters Week 16 with 494 yards and five touchdowns.
Sterling Shepard, Tampa Bay - 1 Reception, 29 Receiving Yards
Shepard has incentives of $125,000 at 40 receptions and 400 yards. He has 39 catches and 371 yards. He has a second threshold of 50 receptions and 500 yards, with an additional $125,000 each.
Van Jefferson, Tennessee - 6 Receptions
Jefferson has 24 catches on the season. His contract is structured with non-cumulative bonuses. He unlocks the first $100,000 at 30 receptions.
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox, Buffalo - 2 Receptions, 47 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown
Knox has 28 receptions and earns $100,000 at each of 30 / 40 / 50 catches. He is at 353 yards, earning $100,000 at 400 and 750. With three touchdowns, he needs one more to hit $100,000, then earns another $150,000 at both six and eight.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans - 8 Receptions, 56 Receiving Yards
Johnson’s contract has two-step incentives, a $125,000 step at 60 receptions and 700 yards, then a $250,000 step at 70 receptions and 800 yards. He has 62 catches and 644 yards, putting both levels in play for 2025.
Hunter Henry, New England - 4 Receptions
Henry unlocks a $ 250,000 bonus at 50 receptions. He sits at 46. He receives an additional $250,000 for each five-catch threshold between 55, 60, and 65.
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold, Seattle - 297 passing yards, 4 Passing Touchdowns, 100 Passer Rating, 67.5% Completion
Darnold has multiple incentives in his contract, earning $500,000 each for 4,000 passing yards, 28 Passing Touchdowns, 67.5% completion, and a 100 passer rating. He is currently at 3,703 yards, 24 touchdowns, 67.2% completion, and 100.6 passer rating.
Darnold can set the Seahawks' single-season passing mark, needing 617 yards over the remaining two games.
