The close of the NFL regular season becomes silly season. Receivers pop up out of nowhere, and often, we do not realize who is stringing together surprise fantasy playoff weeks until we have the benefit of hindsight. Time to take a look at all 32 offenses to see where trends head and identify key statistical milestones.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | Snaps | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 38 | Trey McBride | 13 | 12-134-2 | 34.21% | 61 | 92% |
| Michael Wilson | 11 | 5-54-1 | 28.95% | 56 | 85% | ||
| Michael Carter | 4 | 4-38-0 | 10.53% | 53 | 80% | ||
| Baltimore | 12 | Zay Flowers | 5 | 3-68-1 | 41.67% | 32 | 78% |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 2-18-0 | 25.00% | 17 | 41% | ||
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 2-32-1 | 16.67% | 11 | 27% | ||
| Cincinnati | 36 | Ja'Marr Chase | 16 | 10-132-0 | 44.44% | 74 | 97% |
| Chase Brown | 7 | 7-37-0 | 19.44% | 47 | 62% | ||
| Tanner Hudson | 5 | 3-16-0 | 13.89% | 19 | 25% | ||
| Detroit | 37 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 18 | 13-164-2 | 48.65% | 61 | 95% |
| Jameson Williams | 9 | 7-134-1 | 24.32% | 58 | 91% | ||
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 4-20-0 | 18.92% | 52 | 81% | ||
| Kansas City | 30 | Rashee Rice | 11 | 7-51-0 | 36.67% | 52 | 85% |
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 7-70-0 | 30.00% | 60 | 98% | ||
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 2-35-0 | 13.33% | 41 | 67% | ||
| Tampa Bay | 32 | Mike Evans | 12 | 6-132-0 | 37.50% | 38 | 55% |
| Emeka Egbuka | 7 | 4-64-0 | 21.88% | 44 | 64% | ||
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 4-20-1 | 15.63% | 66 | 96% |
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There is a non-zero chance the only things the Cardinals care about are fantasy football and cashing props on McBride and Wilson. McBride had the best game of his career, tying his career high in receptions, scoring twice for the second time in his career, and setting a new high in yardage. It feels as if there is little doubt he will break Zach Ertz's 116 tight end receptions mark, as he needs 11 catches. At his current rate, he looks to smash the mark like Mark McGwire, cruising past 61 home runs and ending on 70. He needs 346 yards to break Travis Kelce's tight end single-season mark of 1,416. McBride has 219.6 points in 0.5 PPR. Travis Kelce is TE2 with 145.3. Kyle Pitts Sr. is TE3. To illustrate how bunched up tight end is, Pitts was TE20 coming out of Week 12. If he posted his Week 15 performance three more times while McBride simply hit his season average, Pitts would not catch him by the end of the season. Wilson is the WR1 overall through the last five weeks. He had a down week, but still finished WR19. This was against the NFL's top pass defense. The Cardinals play the Falcons in Week 15. The Falcons are not the number one pass defense. They have the Bengals following that. They are the worst defense against tight ends in the NFL. Look out.
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Flowers is 41 yards away from consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. His 2,876 yards through his first three seasons are the most in Ravens history, topping Torrey Smith's 2,824. The lack of tight end usage was shocking, as everyone in fantasy expected a massive tight end game against a Bengals defense that has struggled badly against the position. The Ravens have a tough matchup against the Patriots, though the talent offensively on both sides suggests a potential shootout.
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Chase caught 100 passes for the third straight season. That ties CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown for the longest active streak. St. Brown needs six more receptions to extend his streak to four seasons. Lamb needs 37. Not impossible, but his missed time due to injury puts him behind the pace. Brown has 58 catches; he needs 10 more to tie Joe Mixon's team running back record of 68. Tee Higgins is expected back for Week 16. With the Bengals officially eliminated from the playoffs, there is little reason to push what is becoming a scary concussion issue. The Bengals face the Dolphins, creating a potential revenge matchup for Mike Gesicki. The Dolphins allowed the Steelers a big game, though they had been trending in the right direction defensively.
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As previously mentioned, St. Brown is on the verge of his fourth straight 100 catch season. Antonio Brown holds the record with six straight 100-catch seasons. Brown and Brandon Marshall are tied with the most seasons above that threshold, with six each. The Lions have really tightened their target tree with Sam LaPorta out, focusing on Gibbs, St. Brown, and Williams. Williams needs 64 more yards to hit 1,000 on the season. It would be the first time since the mid-1990s, when teams built around Herman Moore, Brett Perriman, and Johnnie Morton, that the Lions had two receivers over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. Week 16's matchup is against a Steelers defense that is monitoring T.J. Watt's availability following his hospitalization.
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Rice entered concussion protocol, pushing his availability for Week 16 into doubt. The Chiefs are out of the playoffs and will turn to Gardner Minshew with Patrick Mahomes II's season over. Kelce moved past Reggie Wayne and into the Top 10 in career receptions. He needs five more catches to tie ninth-place Anquan Boldin and seven more for eighth-place Terrell Owens. Minshew can support the fantasy options, especially against a porous Tennessee defense, though losing Rice would be a significant blow.
- Evans returned and was promptly moved back into a feature role. Jalen McMillan also made his season debut, looking good. The Carolina matchup will go a long way toward deciding the NFC South, and we finally get a chance to see Mayfield with his full complement of weapons.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
