It happens every year. You draft a player with lofty expectations for the season to come. Pick a guy with the hope of the type of gonzo numbers that propel fantasy teams to championships. There is optimism. Enthusiasm. Sanguineness, even.
But then, that player either gets hurt or fails to come anywhere near meeting fantasy expectations. Rather than a productive fantasy asset, managers are left with a gaping hole in their lineup.
There are few worse feelings for fantasy managers.
It's like realizing Toby has returned to Dunder-Mifflin.
Then, the following year, something happens. Something certain and terrible and as ferocious as a Dwight Schrute karate shot to the groin.
Those disappointing players are relegated to the scrap heap by many drafters. Fantasy managers have the memory of an elephant and hold grudges like the Hatfields and the McCoys. Burn them, and it won't be forgotten—ever.
Now, in some instances, that reluctance to take another swing at a player who disappointed the prior season is wise. In 2019, Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints led the league in receptions and receiving yards and was the No. 1 fantasy receiver by over 100 PPR points. The following year, Thomas missed over half the season, followed by sitting out all of 2021.
He was never fantasy-relevant again.
However, for every fantasy faceplant who remains mired in the muck of mediocrity, there's one who shakes off a subpar season to return to form. And since players coming off down years are usually available at a fairly significant discount, identifying the right rebound candidates can mean getting great value on a draft pick.
Get value on enough selections, and at season's end, you'll be dancing like it's Jim and Pam's wedding.
Just try not to kick anyone in the face.
Fantasy Football Rebound Quarterbacks
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas
Two years ago, Prescott threw for 4,516 yards (third in the NFL), tossed a league-leading 36 touchdown passes, and finished third at the position in fantasy points. That got the soon-to-be 32-year-old drafted as a top-10 quarterback on average in 2024, but there would be no repeat season—Prescott made it just eight games in before an avulsion of his hamstring ended his season.
That injury-marred campaign has caused Prescott's ADP to fall outside of the top 100 picks this season. But from all indications, Prescott is 100 percent. He has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 30 touchdowns three times. The Cowboys added a viable No. 2 WR this offseason in George Pickens. And given their questionable run game, the Cowboys could be among the NFL's most pass-heavy teams in 2025.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
The 2024 season was a waking nightmare for the Jaguars—just about everything that could go wrong for the team did. That included Jacksonville's young star quarterback—after signing a five-year, $275 million extension last June, Lawrence had the worst season of his career, with a career-low 204.5 passing yards per game and just 11 passing scores in 10 games, due to a shoulder injury and a concussion.
It's not a massive stretch to call this a "make-or-break" season for Lawrence, although given his contract, the Jaguars are effectively stuck with him. But Jacksonville has put the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft in position to succeed this year, adding an explosive passing-game weapon in rookie receiver Travis Hunter and bringing in a coach in Liam Coen who just coaxed top-five fantasy numbers out of Baker Mayfield a year ago in Tampa.
Fantasy Football Rebound Running Backs
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
Breaking news—there isn't a bigger risk-reward pick in fantasy football than McCaffrey.
When he's at his best, McCaffrey isn't just capable of being a high-end fantasy RB1—he's capable of annihilating every other option at the position. Two years ago, he was fantasy's RB1 by over 100 PPR points on the way to being named Offensive Player of the Year. Back in 2019, he became just the third back in NFL history to record 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards.
When McCafrrey misses time, he usually misses a lot—last year was the third time that the 29-year-old has missed more than 10 games in a season. But after his 2020 and 2021 campaigns were cut short, McCaffrey rebounded in 2022 with almost 1,900 total yards, 13 total scores, and the most PPR points of any running back in the NFC.
Awful or awesome. There is no in-between.
RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City
The 2024 season was supposed to be Pacheco's coming-out party—after topping 1,100 total yards with nine scores on the way to top-15 fantasy numbers among running backs in 2023, Pacheco was set to be Kansas City's featured back. A star turn was coming. But instead of an ascension, fantasy managers got disaster—Pacheco broke his leg two games into the season, and that was that.
Now, Pacheco is being drafted outside the top-25 fantasy running backs—and it's fair to question why. Yes, Elijah Mitchell had 1,100 total yards with the San Francisco 49ers in 2021, but he has less than 600 rushing yards in the three seasons since combined. Kareem Hunt looked closer to 39 last year than 29. If Pacheco's healthy, he should dominate backfield touches for one of the NFL's best offenses.
RB Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville
Etienne is something of an anomaly on this list—he did miss two games in 2024, but his disastrous numbers were less about injury and more about just having an awful season. Etienne failed to hit 600 yards on the ground last year and is officially persona non grata with fantasy managers. He's going to be traded. He's going to be released outright. His mother doesn't love him no more.
That last one is just mean.
But Jacksonville head coach Liam Coen has already put the kibosh on the trade speculation, and while Tank Bigsby was a more effective runner last year, he's a complete non-factor in the passing game. Bhayshul Tuten is a talented rookie who can't hang onto the ball—11 fumbles in college and ball-control issues in college. After his fifth-year option was declined, Etienne is playing for his future in the NFL. And he has two more 1,000-yard rushing seasons than any back in Jacksonville.
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