Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Change: Shift in Team Ranking Overall From the Previous Week (Beginning after Week 2)
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Last: Previous Team Ranking (2022 final ranking in this edition)
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Browns
The past five seasons have been poor HLO performances for Cleveland overall. Joe Flacco at quarterback and Dylan Sampson being peppered with targets fueled a No.1 finish to start the season. They also produced the most goal-line carries for the week. This feels fluky and definitely needs more information in the coming weeks for confirmation. The depth chart wrinkle is that Quinshon Judkins begins practice this week and will supplement the lineup soon. Jerome Ford is likely the biggest loser of the trio for playing time, with Dylan Sampson flashing with 20 combined carries and targets in his NFL debut.
49ers
Christian McCaffrey was not only healthy for Week 1, but also a workhorse and benefactor of the No.3 HLO score. With Brock Purdy and George Kittle dinged up (Kittle will miss a few weeks, TBD on Purdy as of mid-week reporting), McCaffrey will be even more of a centerpiece as long as he holds up. One annual reminder is if McCaffrey misses time, the HLO will likely sag for the 49ers. Teams with Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, or Christian McCaffrey types have morphed significantly when they are out of the lineup and fall in HLO. Brian Robinson Jr. is a clarified RB2, but expecting him to be featured in the passing game to even 80% of the McCaffrey level is dangerous.
Falcons
Bijan Robinson posted his second career 100-yard receiving game in Week 1 with Atlanta posting the No. 4 HLO ranking. Robinson being unlocked as a receiver camouflaged a poor rushing day for both Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. An elite HLO score will significantly boost Robinson's probability to finish as the RB1 overall this season. Also, Tyler Allgeier is one of the elite league-winning backup running backs to stash all season long.