RELATED: See other positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs
In the realm of fantasy football, many managers hold the belief that if a player is truly talented, their skill will become apparent early in their career. While this idea is logical, an analysis of some numbers was conducted to test this belief and better understand the extent to which early success matters for fantasy football assets. This discussion began with the quarterback position in the first article of the series and continued with running backs in the second piece. This third piece will focus specifically on the wide receiver position.
The Process
First, a baseline was needed. To find that, the average fantasy points per game scored by the 12th-best wide receivers among players who participated in at least six games over the past 12 seasons was calculated. In a PPR scoring system, this average was approximately 16.1 points per game. This served as the baseline for an WR1 season. Using a similar strategy, it was also calculated that 13.4 points per game was an appropriate WR2 benchmark.
After excluding one-hit wonders, we were left with 38 receivers who finished above the 16.1 points per game mark since 2013. This list includes some absolute legends, such as Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith, as well as solid players like Allen Robinson II and Adam Thielen.
All in all, this collection is a list of successful fantasy football wide receivers.
The careers of these players were then examined, reviewing their performance over each season while tracking the fantasy points scored per game. By analyzing this data, the aim was to understand the significance of early production for successful fantasy football wide receivers.
The question explored here: How early do successful fantasy wide receivers provide production in their careers?
The Discovery
After looking at the numbers, every wide receiver fits into one of three major categories.
- Immediate Stars: Players who hit at least one WR1 season within their first two seasons.
- Early Producers: Players who at least had one WR2 season in their first two seasons without having an WR1 season.
- Late Bloomers: Players who did not hit either a WR1 or a WR2 season within their first two seasons.
Similar to the rest of the research, only seasons where the player played in six or more games were considered to avoid outlier numbers.
The data from the entire 38-wide receiver sample:
Just over 44% of them were Immediate Stars, hitting the 16.1-point-per-game mark at least once in their first two seasons.
Approximately 29% of the players were Early Producers, having at least one WR2 season but no seasons that reached the WR1 baseline.
Overall, this indicates that nearly 73% of the sampled players provided some level of significant fantasy relevance within their first two seasons.
This leaves a percentage of about 27%, representing our Late Bloomers, with about half of these players not doing much with their first three seasons.
If your wide receiver has not flashed much within their first two or even first three seasons, it would likely be unwise to bet on this player achieving WR1 success.
Here is a table of the data.
| Wide Receiver | Stats Within First 3 Seasons of 6+ Starts | Career Stats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 Seasons | WR2 Seasons | Seasons of 6+ Starts | WR1 Seasons | WR2 Seasons | |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 3 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 2 |
| Antonio Brown | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 3 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 3 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 3 |
| Steve Smith | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 5 |
| Wes Welker | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 2 |
| Stefon Diggs | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| AJ Green | 2 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Jordy Nelson | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Michael Thomas | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| T.Y Hilton | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 2 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Ceedee Lamb | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Desean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 2 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 2 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 4 |
| Allen Robinson II | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 3 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Asking if a wide receiver hit the Immediate Star category or not is essentially a yes or no question. After working through the entire sample, seeing a result so close to 50% indicates that neither answer has a significant edge over the other, meaning there is no discernible trend here. The data suggests that if your wide receiver has not hit the threshold of being a WR1 after two seasons, it does not matter much at all.
Examining the Early Producer section, we can draw a more concrete conclusion: nearly three-quarters of the receivers fell into this category or the Immediate Stars category. If you have been following along with the series and recall previous pieces, you will notice that these numbers are not nearly as concrete as those we saw in the quarterback or running back study.
What we can conclude is that while we should hope to see some production early, there is significantly more room for patience to be had in fantasy football wide receiver development compared to quarterbacks and running backs. We have been blessed with some young stars at wide receiver lately, such as Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Ladd McConkey, and Brian Thomas Jr. This trend could be headed in that direction, but for now, we must stay strong in the fact that great wide receivers can take time to develop and do not need to have so much success so early.
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