How Much Does Early Success Matter for Quarterbacks?

In the realm of fantasy football, many managers hold the belief that if a player is truly talented, their skill will become apparent early in their career. While this idea is logical, an analysis of some numbers was conducted to test this belief and better understand the extent to which early success matters for fantasy football assets. This discussion will focus specifically on the quarterback position, with future articles planned for each of the four primary positions in fantasy football.

The Process

First, a baseline was needed. To find that, the average fantasy points per game scored by the 12th-best quarterback among players who participated in at least six games over the past 12 seasons was calculated. In a six-point passing touchdown scoring system, this average was approximately 18.0 points per game. This served as the baseline for a QB1 season. Using a similar strategy, it was also calculated that 15.1 points per game was an appropriate QB2 benchmark.

After excluding one-hit wonders, we were left with 30 quarterbacks who finished above the 18.0 points per game mark since 2013. This list includes some absolute legends, such as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, as well as solid quarterbacks like Tyrod Taylor and Kirk Cousins. Overall, this collection of players can be considered a list of successful fantasy football quarterbacks.

These are quality fantasy quarterbacks.

We then examined the careers of these quarterbacks, reviewing their performance over each season while tracking the fantasy points scored per game. By analyzing this data, the aim was to understand the significance of early production for successful fantasy football quarterbacks.

The question explored was: How early do successful fantasy quarterbacks provide that production in their careers?

The Discovery

After looking at the numbers, every quarterback fits into one of three major categories.

• Immediate Stars: Players who hit at least one QB1 season within their first two seasons.
• Early Producers: Players who at least had one QB2 season in their first two seasons without having a QB1 season.
• Late Bloomers: Players who did not hit either a QB1 or a QB2 season within their first two seasons.

Similar to the rest of the research, only seasons where the player played in six or more games were considered to avoid outlier numbers. 

The data from the entire 30-quarterback sample:

• 60% of them were Immediate Stars, hitting the 18.1-point-per-game mark at least once in their first two seasons.
• 23.33% of the players were Early Producers, with at least one QB2 season but no seasons reaching the QB1 baseline.

Overall, this indicates that 83.33% of the quarterbacks in the sample provided some level of fantasy relevance within their first two seasons.

This leaves a minute percentage of 16.67%, representing our Late Bloomers. Furthermore, only two out of thirty quarterbacks were unable to achieve a QB2 season or better in their first three seasons, which is a remarkably low 6.67% of the sample.

If you have a quarterback who is three seasons in and is still struggling, you should likely give up hope that QB1 success is coming for that player.

Here is a table of the data. 

This data strongly suggests that successful quarterbacks tend to offer something to hold on to during their initial seasons in the league. In certain scenarios, patience is key with player development in fantasy football. However, as shown in the study, the most successful players tend to be those who demonstrate early production. Caution is advised when placing too much value on a quarterback who has not shown much progression within their first two seasons, as they may not be a hit. Quarterbacks who provide true success at the position do not often start that slowly.

The 2024 Rookies

Since no one-hit wonders were allowed in the sample, rookies were not able to be a part of this study. However, we had a couple of rookies enter different categories last season.

• Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix both were able to beat 18.1 points per game as rookies and met the Immediate Stars status.
• Caleb Williams is currently in the Early Producers group, but his 2025 season could put him in the Immediate Stars status if he has the breakout fantasy managers are hoping for
•  Drake Maye is currently in the Late Bloomers group due to his lackluster season last year. Still, he could easily jump into either of the higher two categories this year with his offensive upgrades and elite rushing upside.

Keep an eye on these rookies, as their next season could reveal a lot about their potential as future fantasy football assets. 

Speaking of rookies, a fair question might arise as to whether a strong first season indicates more success than a breakout in a later year. The simple answer is yes. In a sample of 30 quarterbacks, 18 of them had completed careers. Among these players, those who achieved an average of 18.0 or more points per game in their first season—while playing six or more games—averaged 6.7 seasons of meeting the QB1 standard. In contrast, those who did not have as successful a first year averaged only 5.9 seasons of QB1 production.

While it is not a major difference, first-year breakouts are slightly more successful in their careers when considering the number of seasons in which they qualify as a QB1. Fantasy football assets who put together strong rookie seasons are ones to keep an eye on for a huge future career of production.

Quarterbacks Testing these Trends

Let's examine some quarterback examples who are testing this trend and how the numbers found can impact the view on their fantasy football futures.