IDP The Guru and The Godfather: Week 5

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry.

Both are scratching their heads right along with the rest of you a month into the 2025 season.

The highest-scoring IDP linebacker wasn't the first player at his position drafted on his own team. The linebacker who was drafted first in most IDP leagues is on a tackling sabbatical. Devin Bush of the Browns has more fantasy points than multiple so-called "elite" linebackers.

Don't get them started on the other positions.

There's nowhere to go but forward, though, so that's where The Guru and the Godfather are headed—as soon as they complain a little.

Cutting Bait

Four weeks in, it's no longer wholly unreasonable to freak out about IDPs who haven't met expectations in 2025. Which one of those high-end letdowns are you officially ready to throw in the towel on?

Conversely, which IDP who came roaring out of the gate is about to come crashing back to earth?

Guru: Josh Hines-Allen of the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't have a great 2024, but based on his explosion the year before and the changes within the scheme, many people expected a big bounce back this year. At the quarter point of the fantasy season, it's just not happening. In fact, he is going the other way. The guy who racked up 17 sacks in 2023 and had 8 in 2024 is currently on pace for four, and ranks outside the top 45 in most formats. I'm out.

We went into the season wondering if the coaching and scheme change would make Pete Werner the fantasy stud many of us thought he would be coming out of Ohio State. Through the first three games, it sure looked like that would be the case. I can overlook the three solo tackle performance from week four, and I am not ready to give up on him by any stretch. What concerns me, though, is the trend of reduced playing time. Werner opened the season with 91% participation in week one. That number has gone down each week, reaching 69% in week four. He currently ranks inside the top 15 in most formats. He's not going to maintain that on less than 70% of the snaps.   

Godfather: Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III was fourth in fantasy points among safeties last year in The Godfather's Default IDP Scoring on the heels of 102 total tackles and four interceptions. I even rocked his jersey at the King's Classic draft at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Apparently, that jinxed him—four weeks into the season, he has 10 solos, absolutely nothing in the big-play column, and he's 95th in fantasy points among defensive backs. He's not a must-hold over Atlanta's bye week.

Entering Week 5, Washington Commanders edge-rusher Dorance Armstrong ranks inside IDP DL1 territory, thanks largely to sacks in three straight games to open the season. It's a great start for the eighth-year veteran, and he's on pace to smash his career-highs across the board. But that's the problem—Armstrong has never had 40 total tackles, nine sacks, or played 65 percent of the snaps over a season in his career. He's a great waiver add as depth or maybe even a second starter. But this isn't going to hold up.

Live In the Now

OK, enough frowny-face time. It's on to Week 5.

Which lower-end defensive lineman is best positioned for a smash week in Week 5? Which big-name up front is most in danger of pulling a disappearing act?

Guru: "Lower end" can be a relative term. For this situation, I'm going to take it to mean sleeper. I mean, no one needs us to tell them to start T.J. Watt, right? Andrew Van Ginkel remains on the shelf with a sore neck. This could turn into a long-term issue, so considering Dallas Turner for week five could be more than just a one-game move. Last year's 17th overall pick made his first start this year in week two and was 3-2-1 versus the Falcons. His second start was last week against Pittsburgh. The stat sheet numbers were modest at 1-3. What caught my eye was the snap count. Turner played 91% in week two and every defensive snap in week four. Cleveland has been a middle-of-the-pack matchup for the edge position thus far, but they are starting a rookie QB this week, so who knows? One thing we can count on is that Turner will have plenty of opportunities.

Last week, I called out Carl Granderson of the Saints and his matchup with the Bills as a situation to avoid. Granderson beat the odds and had a good game. I'm going back to the well to say, beware of Harold Landry III. Buffalo gave up no sacks in twelve of their last 35 games. In twelve others, they allowed one. Opponents got to Josh Allen twice in seven of those 35 games, three times in three of them, and no team has sacked Allen more than three times in a game since week one of 2023. If Landry had some help, like Granderson did with Cameron Jordan, I would feel better about his chances. Unfortunately, he is the only real threat the Patriots have. I expect Buffalo to take him out of the equation.    

Godfather: I believe that's the second week in a row the Guru has singled out my IDP Dud of the Week. Great minds and all.

In this week's defensive linemen rankings at Footballguys, Tavius Robinson of the Baltimore Ravens checks in at DL31. With Kyle Van Noy on the shelf, the third-year pro has emerged as Baltimore's most consistent pass-rusher, logging a pair of sacks in the team's first two games. The Ravens are a disaster defensively, but Houston's offensive line isn't that far behind them—Robinson will be a bright spot this week in a home loss that is going to leave a Super Bowl favorite reeling at 1-4.

George Karlaftis of the Kansas City Chiefs may not be a "big name" yet, but propelled by 18 stops and three sacks over the season's first month, he ranks among the top-12 defensive linemen. IDP managers need to steel themselves against a down week, though—say what you will about Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Goldilocks Lawrence, but he doesn't get sacked a lot—just 21 times in Jacksonville's last 21 games.

Pour One Out for Roquan