This series of articles premiered exclusively at Footballguys last year. This year, we are bringing it back following the updates from the 2024 season.
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I have spent time studying injury timelines and fantasy performance outcomes specifically for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends from 2017 to 2024. Altogether, there are over 2,000 injuries in my database. However, to avoid any confusion, it is important to lay some ground rules.
I am not saying that this is exactly what will happen. I do not have a crystal ball, nor should this report be used as one. Like most things in life, context is important. Every injury is unique.
Enjoy.
Footballguys Injury Content Sections
- Chance to Play: Practice Participation (September 1)
- Positional Volatility: Examining Games Played (August 19)
- Fantasy Performance and Re-Injury Rate by Position (August 14)
- The RB Mileage Myth: What the Numbers Say About Workload and Injuries (August 10)
- Digging Into WRs Returning From ACL Reconstruction (July 5)
Chance to Play: Practice Participation
A question often asked during the NFL season is:
"Player X did not practice this week? How likely are they to play?"
The table below examines the percentage chance of a player suiting up on Sunday based on their final practice participation, which is the most predictive. For those not familiar with practice reports, there are three categories.
- Full Participant (FP)
- Limited Participant (LP)
- Did Not Practice (DNP)
After looking at every NFL team's weekly practice report from 2017 through 2023, here are the results of how likely players are to play after the final practice report.