Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for. All else being equal, I'll try to focus on prime-time games and the most entertaining spots on the schedule. However, I won't force plays just to have action on every night game.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Payouts
Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:
- Two picks: 3x your entry
- Three picks: 6x your entry
- Four picks: 10x your entry
- Five picks: 20x your entry
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week (5-3), +$60
- Season (12-11), -$88
Hit on Justin Jefferson and Chase Brown receiving overs on the supercharged play of the week to finally get on the board for 2025.
Was all over the Quinshon Judkins (42.5) rushing yardage over, as he ran for 93 yards, but Josh Jacobs was held out of the end zone for the first time since November of last season. Okay with the process on that one, as he had multiple carries near the goal line.
Went for a big 10X in the Titans-Colts game and split the four selections with Jonathan Taylor and Elic Ayomanor hitting their overs, but Tyler Warren and Calvin Ridley both coming up short.
Week 4 Pick Em Selections
Pick 1
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Jackson tends to run more in big games, and with the Ravens at risk of falling to 1-3 against the defending AFC Champion Chiefs, this is a spot where we should expect more designed runs from arguably the greatest rushing quarterback of all time.
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He also runs more against zone-heavy schemes, and history backs this up against Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense. In six career meetings, Jackson has topped 50 rushing yards five times (83%).
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In those six starts against Kansas City, Jackson has averaged 79.8 rushing yards per game.
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Mahomes has also historically run more in big games, and with the Chiefs also at risk of falling to 1-3 in Week 4, this projects as another spot where he uses his legs more often.
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He leads all quarterbacks this season with 15 scrambles, while no other passer has more than 12.
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Over his last six games (playoffs included), he has averaged 6.7 carries per game, and he has averaged over five yards per carry in seven straight seasons.
Patrick Mahomes II rushing yards by season:
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 22, 2025
2018: 272
2019: 218
2020: 308
2021: 381
2022: 358
2023: 389
2024: 307
...
2025 pace: 708