Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for. All else being equal, I'll try to focus on prime-time games and the most entertaining spots on the schedule. However, I won't force plays just to have action on every night game.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Payouts
Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:
- Two picks: 3x your entry
- Three picks: 6x your entry
- Four picks: 10x your entry
- Five picks: 20x your entry
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week (4-3), -$40
- Season (16-18), -$168
Week 5 was frustrating. Hit 75% of an 11X opportunity in the Lions-Bengals game. We got our David Montgomery anytime touchdown. Chase Brown and Ja'Marr Chase both easily topped their receiving yardage overs. Unfortunately, Jameson Williams was a no-show.
The Woody Marks and Rashod Bateman props never came close. I was expecting a more competitive game between Houston and Baltimore.
Need to get back on the right track in Week 6.
Week 6 Picks
Pick 1
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Smith-Njigba has topped this total in all five games this season.
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He is averaging 106.8 yards per game and an impressive 12.4 yards per target with Sam Darnold at quarterback.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has blossomed into a true three-level threat at WR.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 8, 2025
Winning in quick game, on deep balls, on outbreakers, on inbreakers, from the outside, from the slot. It doesn't matter, JSN is effective and explosive. pic.twitter.com/8KblUQCz8A
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Going back to the midway point of last season, he is averaging 91.1 yards per game over his past 15 and has topped 79 receiving yards in 10 of his last 14 games, with 70 or more in 12 of those 14.
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The Jaguars are allowing 158.6 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers, tenth-most in the NFL.
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Over the first two weeks, Hunter averaged 7.0 targets per game but was inefficient with those chances. In his last three games, his efficiency has skyrocketed as he's averaging 12.7 yards per target, but his target volume has dropped to 3.3 per game. The encouraging part is that even with limited opportunities, this more efficient version of Hunter can still clear this number. His performance against Kansas City and Liam Coen's postgame comments both suggest he's earned a larger role moving forward.
"What's the [number of plays] on this, I can't tell you. ... [Travis Hunter's] somebody we got to continue to get the ball to."
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 7, 2025
—@Jaguars HC Liam Coen on if Travis Hunter will get more snaps 👀
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/MP7ymKLhLv
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 7, 2025
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In the big win over the Chiefs on Monday night, Hunter played a season-high 67% of the offensive snaps and set a career high with 64 receiving yards.
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Hunter's quick-hitting ability stands out when he gets the ball in space, as seen on this play against Kansas City, where he made two defenders miss.
No reason Jags can't scheme 7-10 touches a game for Travis Hunter pic.twitter.com/folQqYJSmY
— Jeremiah Mullinax (@Coach_Mullinax) October 7, 2025
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His second area of strength is going up to make plays deep down the field, something he did regularly in college and should see more of at the NFL level as his role expands.
Travis Hunter's superpower has always been his catching radius.
— Alex NFL (@ajjnfl) October 7, 2025
To me, that's more valuable on the offensive side of ball. Hopefully this means more touches for him soon.pic.twitter.com/aaqiv0dtGy
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The Seahawks have been tough against the run but have allowed production through the air. Last week, Baker Mayfield threw for 379 yards, and rookie slot receiver Emeka Egbuka went off for 163 yards.