6 Salary Cap Draft Values That Make No Sense

Salary cap draft values are a multifaceted proposition. You're going to see the same player go for a different final price in just about every league you're in. But that range has its limits. Derrick Henry may have a price of $30, so it's not unusual to see him go for $26 or $34. Seeing him go for over $40, however, or under $20, would be an outlier.

Because of this, you can anticipate the general range where most players will fall. The job before the salary cap draft, though, is to identify the players who are too cheap and will outperform their cost. It's not enough to find players who might go for a few dollars less than they should. The goal is to find players who are significantly mispriced, creating a market inefficiency that can provide an even greater advantage in your salary cap draft room.

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Typical serpentine drafts rarely provide this opportunity, as they unfold in a largely linear fashion until the later rounds. A salary cap draft, however, does not follow a linear path, creating a magnification effect that reflects the fantasy community's current opinion on how players should be priced.

For example, there seems to be outsized love for Luther Burden III after his strong finish to last season and the departure of D.J. Moore. Even so, in serpentine drafts he still has a fairly tight range of where he'll be drafted. But in a salary cap draft, that anticipated (and actual) price can sometimes explode purely because of the opinions of the managers in the room, often fueled by the hype surrounding a player throughout the fantasy community. This can cut both ways, of course, leading to players with puzzlingly low prices despite their projected production.

Here are six players that have a salary cap draft value that is abnormally high or low heading into training camp.

Jaylen Waddle - Salary Cap Draft Value: $23

There seems to be some trepidation about Waddle's situation this fall. He is still coming off the board as a low-end WR2 in serpentine formats, but Footballguys has him valued at $23 (14th-most among wide receivers). Those two things don't match up. That means the general public is unsure about Waddle, and this is exactly the type of edge you're looking for in a salary cap draft.

The public tends to have a short memory in fantasy football, and Waddle's recent struggles have turned people off. He hasn't finished as a Top 24 wide receiver since 2023, when he was WR24 in point-per-reception (PPR) points per game (PPG). Those struggles, though, aren't really Waddle's fault. His quarterback play has steadily deteriorated over the last few years, and his target share has declined along with it. Mike McDaniel's offense in Miami was designed around getting Tyreek Hill the ball—as it should be. That limited Waddle to 104 targets or fewer in each of the last 3 seasons.

In 2022, he earned 117 targets, which he turned into 1,356 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, good for a WR11 finish in PPR PPG among wide receivers who played at least 8 games. In 2021, his rookie campaign, he turned 142 targets into 104 receptions and a WR13 finish.

Waddle's quarterback play should improve dramatically with the switch to Bo Nix, the Broncos have a strong offensive mind calling plays, and Waddle should easily see 110-120 targets in Denver's offense. That makes him more of a borderline WR1 than the borderline WR2 price he's currently commanding. If he finishes the year as a high-end WR2 for fantasy purposes, then a $35-plus price tag would be appropriate. It's unlikely he'll command that kind of price in a salary cap draft room.

Trevor Lawrence - Salary Cap Draft Value: $5
Bo Nix - Salary Cap Draft Value: $5

The early trend is that quarterback is too deep to justify spending significant money at the position. In one-quarterback leagues, prices have fallen because of the abundance of players with legitimate Top 12 upside further down the rankings.

These two quarterbacks are linked because they're similarly valued at the moment, and both lead offenses on the rise. The reason they're highlighted over the other options is the lack of excitement surrounding either player despite their proven fantasy relevance.

Lawrence finished last year on a tear, performing as a Top 3 quarterback after Jacksonville's Week 8 bye. Most notably, he averaged 16 rushing yards per game prior to the bye, but then had only 1 game below 16 rushing yards the rest of the season. The Jaguars faced a beatable schedule over that stretch, but it's notable that Lawrence threw for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns, while adding a rushing touchdown and 20 yards on the ground against a strong Denver defense in Week 15. Giving Lawrence another offseason in Liam Coen's offense, along with more time to build chemistry with Jakobi Meyers, points to another season of strong fantasy production.

Nix, for his part, has been a fantasy darling through his first two NFL seasons, finishing as a Top 10 quarterback in both years. Denver added an electric alpha wide receiver this offseason, yet people still view him as nothing more than a mediocre QB2.

Both quarterbacks are trending in the right direction, and neither has any business being this cheap in a salary cap draft. Want an even better idea? Go get both of them for less than $8 and enjoy a dynamic duo that won't cost many of your precious salary cap dollars.

Amon-Ra St. Brown - Salary Cap Draft Value: $40