When he's at his best, Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers is the most dominant fantasy running back of his generation. There have been two running backs since 2010 who have recorded 400 PPR points in a season. The first was McCaffrey in 2019 with the Carolina Panthers. The second was McCaffrey last year with the 49ers.
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McCaffrey wasn't just the focal point of the 49ers offense last year—he effectively was the offense. McCaffrey touched the ball an NFL-high 413 times in 2025. He rushed for over 1,200 yards. Caught 102 passes. Scored 17 total touchdowns. And (go figure) was the No. 1 running back overall.
But McCaffrey was more than just No. 1—he was No. 1 by a significant margin, out-pacing Atlanta's Bijan Robinson by over 40 fantasy points. That's nothing compared to what he did back in 2019. That year, McCaffrey destroyed every other running back in the league by over nine PPR points per game.
A rampaging McCaffrey is Godzilla. He's an unstoppable force of nature. There's nothing for opponents to do but flee for their miserable lives.
Fantasy managers appear to be on board with the possibility of another Tokyo-stomping in 2026—the 30-year-old's early ADP at Footballguys is the third running back off the board and the sixth pick overall.
The only thing getting stomped by managers who make that colossal mistake is their own season. There are numerous factors working against McCaffrey this year, whether it's age, workload, or trying to back up a 2,000-yard season.
Christian McCaffrey is the biggest bust waiting to happen in fantasy football. And just like Godzilla, you can see it coming from miles away.
The Curse of 370
We aren't going to get too into the weeds here—The Curse of 370 was already explained in greater detail recently here at Footballguys. Long story short, the Curse of 370 was a term coined by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders back in 2004 for the drastic drop-off in production that usually occurs for a running back the season after a 370-carry campaign.
As the NFL has evolved, running backs rarely hit that number anymore—McCaffrey barely cracked 300 last season. But the curse wasn't going away that easily—it started going after backs with over 370 touches in a season.
Depressing visual aid time!
| Year | Player | Touches | PPR Pts. | PPRPNY | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | David Johnson (AZ) | 373 | 411.8 | 15.1 | -96.33% |
| 2017 | Le'Veon Bell (PIT) | 406 | 345.6 | 215 | -37.99% |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) | 381 | 331.1 | 315.7 | -4.65% |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey (CAR) | 403 | 469.2 | 90.3 | -80.75% |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry (TEN) | 397 | 335.1 | 187.1 | -44.17% |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 372 | 377.1 | 152.4 | -59.59% |
| 2021 | Najee Harris (PIT) | 381 | 300.7 | 227.3 | -24.41% |
| 2022 | Derrick Henry (TEN) | 382 | 304.6 | 238.1 | -21.83% |
| 2022 | Josh Jacobs (LV) | 393 | 330.3 | 183.1 | -44.57% |
| 2024 | Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 378 | 351.3 | 232.3 | -33.87% |
| 2025 | Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 413 | 416.6 | ??? | ??? |
Including McCaffrey, there have been 11 instances since 2016 where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season. Of the other 10 instances, just one (Ezekiel Elliott in 2019) came close enough to the prior year's production to reasonably justify his ADP. Every other back experienced a decrease of at least 20 percent in PPR points. Four of those backs sat out at least six games the season following their 370-touch year--five if you count the contract dispute that wiped out Le'Veon Bell's 2018. That's over half who missed a big part of the year--and ruined seasons.
Even if you use Bell's 2019 stats instead of the lost 2018, the average decline in PPR production for running backs coming off a 370-touch season is just under 48 percent. That's the difference between being last year's overall RB1 in PPR points last year and finishing outside the top-20.
You'll also notice that only Bell and McCaffrey (twice) topped 400 touches in a season. The two combined to play all of three games the following year, and McCaffrey had the second-highest decline in fantasy production among backs who saw the field the year after that 370-carry campaign.
In fact, not only did McCaffrey play in just three games in 2020, but he missed 10 more in 2021.