Now that all 32 NFL teams have hit the field for training camp, we'll soon have new developments to assess and add to our current intel on the players we're targeting. But, as those who have been following along all offseason know, we've spent the three months since April's NFL Draft sorting through all the intel we've received.
And we've drawn some conclusions.
We know the biggest draft advantages come from identifying players whose role or general circumstances have already improved but whose Average Draft Position (ADP) still reflects last year's perception rather than this year's reality.
We're Making Lists
That's why many of us go into drafts with players we consider "our guys," those with appealing blends of talent, opportunity, upside, and price.
This week, we're looking at "my guys."
"My guys" won't necessarily be "your guys."
Yes, there will be developments in August that could change our points of view. But I'm confident enough in my list to throw them out there -- along with the information, circumstances, and history that caught my attention.
I encourage you to use the same processes I do to create your own list of "my guys."
You'll find it's a worthwhile endeavor. Having a list of players you know appeal to you can create breathing room in tough drafts.
We got the ball rolling Monday with Running Backs Who Have My Attention. Tuesday, we hit Wide Receivers with Routes to Success. Today, we'll take a look at the "onesie" positions -- quarterbacks and tight ends.
Discounted Upside
If you've been following along all offseason, this one comes as no surprise.
It took three head coaches, but Trevor Lawrence finally clicked under Liam Coen last year, posting career highs across the board: 4,007 yards, 29 touchdown passes, 82 carries, 359 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns, and 38 total touchdowns -- third-most in the NFL.
But the finish was the real story.
Jacksonville won eight straight to close the season, averaging an NFL-best 33.6 points per game, with Lawrence posting 24 total touchdowns and just five interceptions over that stretch. He was QB1 overall from Weeks 10 through 17, capping the year as QB4 with 342.2 fantasy points.
The concern is the rushing touchdowns.
Only eight QBs since 2000 have hit nine rushing scores in a season, and Footballguys Jason Wood argues "NFL historical trends scream regression here," suggesting you cut that output in half as a baseline.
Even with regression, Lawrence has finished top-10 in passing and rushing attempts all four seasons, and year two in Coen's system should build on last year's foundation.
At his QB10 ADP and a seventh-round price, you don't need a repeat QB4 finish to profit. That said, I have Lawrence at QB4 in my rankings -- betting on the trajectory without hesitation.
He Doesn't Run Much, But . . .
Matthew Stafford won his first MVP last season, leading the NFL with 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns while completing 65 percent of his passes. Despite an early QB25 ADP, he delivered nine top-10 fantasy weeks -- tied for third-most at the position -- and finished QB2 overall, his first top-10 finish since 2019.
He did it while getting shorted: Stafford lost 42.15 expected points to drops, fifth-most in the NFL, behind only Dak Prescott, Lawrence, Jared Goff, and Cam Ward. Eliminate even half those drops, and his numbers look even more dominant. The one real limiter is rushing equity -- 65 or fewer yards for five straight seasons and just one rushing score since 2017.
Yet his ADP hasn't caught up. Stafford is QB13 at an eighth-round price, well off his QB2 finish.
I rank him as QB10. With Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, a strong line, and Sean McVay calling plays, everything's in place for another high-end season.
If you're waiting at quarterback, don't chase unproven upside -- chase discounted elite production. Stafford is exactly that.
