In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: if any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. It can be a painful experience, even on good weeks. Week 6 was good. It came at a great time. Was I able to carry that success over to Week 7?
Let's see what happened.
- I was in on Vikings QB Kyler Murray, who was projected for a QB11 finish with 17.7 points. I thought Murray, coming off his best game of the year, would carry that over in a favorable matchup against the Colts. I predicted a top-10 finish. Murray didn't even come close. He was QB18 with 13.9 points. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Saints QB Tyler Shough, who was projected for a QB12, 17.4-point outing against the Steelers in Paris. I felt the matchup was more daunting than our projection team did. I predicted Shough would finish outside QB1 territory. And that's exactly what happened. Shough was QB19 on the day with 13.8 points. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon II, who was projected for an RB19, 12.7-point day against the Jets. I felt that was in the right range, but wanted to be a little more aggressive by predicting he would exceed that projection. Gordon ended up as RB16 with 17.3 points. Another hit.✅
- I was out on Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, whose Footballguys projection called for an RB8 finish with 17.2 points. I didn't think the Colts offense could support that output unless Taylor broke off multiple touchdown runs. I predicted he would fall outside the top 10 at his position. Although Taylor played well -- and scored a touchdown -- he finished the day as RB13 (with 19 points). The score was high, but the finish wasn't. This was a hit.✅
- I was in on Steelers WR DK Metcalf, who was projected for a WR19 finish with 14.5 points against the Saints. It was a great matchup, and Aaron Rodgers had been on a roll. I predicted Metcalf would surpass that WR19 finish. Paris -- and the Saints defense -- weren't kind. Metcalf finished as WR38 with 7.6 points. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Lions WR Jameson Williams, whose WR27 projection (with 12.7 points) seemed reasonable enough. But I expected Green Bay's defense would keep him from hitting that number. Williams had other ideas. He finished as WR4 with 26.1 points. I picked a bust, and Williams boomed. A massive miss. ❌
- I was in on Packers TE Tucker Kraft, who was projected for a TE7 finish with 12.2 points against the Lions, the best matchup available at the position on National Tight Ends Day. I said Kraft had top-five upside. I wasn't wrong about that, but sometimes the field -- and unexpected outcomes -- skew things. In this case, Mason Taylor's two-touchdown day for the Jets and Davis Allen's two-touchdown outing for the Rams left them as TE2 and TE4. Those outliers pushed Tucker down to TE7 with a robust 14.8 points. Still, a miss. ❌
- I was out on Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, who faced a super-tough matchup against the Seahawks in Seattle. I felt his TE9 projection with 11 points was too rich. Turns out, it was. Kelce finished as TE20 (with 8.4 points) on a night the Chiefs could only muster three points. This was a hit.✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, 49ers WR Christian Kirk? He was projected to finish as WR50 with 7.9 points in his first game back following a stint on IR. With Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. ruled out, I expected the veteran slot receiver to finish inside WR3 territory. Kirk played 20 snaps, but failed to earn a single target en route to a WR109 finish. That's a miss. ❌
Well, 4-5 is not ideal. I have nobody to blame but myself for thinking Murray was heading in a positive direction, for trusting the very untrustworthy Metcalf, for underestimating the boom potential of Williams, Taylor, and Allen, and for believing Kirk would be a major factor.
Here's where we stand after Week 7:
Week 7: 4-5
Season: 26-37
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to finish at .500 or better on my predictions. After an up-and-down seven-week run, I'm feeling lucky to be at .412 and with the goal still easily within reach.
And with that, let's dive into Week 8.
Week 8 Picks at a Glance
In: Jacoby Brissett, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Pitts Sr.
Out: Caleb Williams, Tony Pollard, Denzel Boston, Sam LaPorta
Outlier to Watch: Makai Lemon
Quarterback
In: Jacoby Brissett, Arizona @ Dallas
As Athlon Sports' Sahil Goswami noted, Cowboys fans remember Brissett's last trip to Arlington. He went 21 of 31 for 261 yards and two touchdown passes, ran for another score, and led Arizona to a 27-17 win on Monday Night Football in November 2025. Dak Prescott was sacked five times that night.
This year, Brissett has been taking the beating. He's been sacked 15 times in seven games. The Cowboys have 10 sacks, tied for fourth-fewest in the NFL.
Beyond that, the Cowboys have struggled against the position. They're sixth in fantasy points allowed and third in EPA per game to the position. Four opposing quarterbacks have scored 20-plus fantasy points. Only three have fallen short of that mark: backups Jalon Daniels and Tanner McKee, and Jayden Daniels in Week 2.
Better still, with a 54.5-point total, this game might be the best fantasy environment on this week's schedule. With an implied total of just over 30 points, Dallas should score enough to force the Cardinals to play catchup -- meaning they'll be throwing. Arizona's implied total of about 24 points is encouraging as well.
Brissett had a 25.3-point, QB8 finish against the Lions in another game with a high total and favorable matchup three weeks ago.
Bottom line: Brissett's Footballguys projection -- he's QB10 with 18.1 points -- is plenty reasonable. I'm going to be a little more aggressive and say he beats that QB10 finish.
Out: Caleb Williams, Chicago @ Seattle
Williams has thrown for 300-plus yards in back-to-back games in his return from a hamstring injury. He threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns in last week's 30-24 victory over the New England Patriots.
Now, in what will be his second consecutive primetime game, Williams must take on the NFL's toughest defense.
Seattle's defense, a big reason for the team's success last season when the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, leads the NFL this year in allowing 233.9 yards per game. The group also ranks atop the league in allowing just 144.4 yards passing per game, and opponents are averaging just 17.9 points, fourth-best in the league.
For our purposes, Seattle's defense has allowed just one quarterback to score more than 9.8 fantasy points at home, and that includes holding Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes II to fewer than 10 points. Mahomes scored only 6.0 points, his second-fewest in 132 career starts.
Overall, Seattle has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest points per dropback to opposing QBs. Only Marcus Mariota in Week 3 scored at least 20 points.
I realize nobody is benching Williams based on challenging matchups. Nor should they. But setting realistic expectations can help set the rest of your lineup.
Bottom line: Williams' Footballguys projection calls for a QB9 finish with 18.9 points. I say he fails to hit that QB9 finish.