Now that all 32 NFL teams have hit the field for training camp, we'll soon have new developments to assess and add to our current intel on the players we're targeting. But, as those who have been following along all offseason know, we've spent the three months since April's NFL Draft sorting through all the intel we've received.
And we've drawn some conclusions.
We know the biggest draft advantages come from identifying players whose role or general circumstances have already improved but whose Average Draft Position (ADP) still reflects last year's perception rather than this year's reality.
We're Making Our Lists
That's why many of us go into drafts with players we consider "our guys," those with appealing blends of talent, opportunity, upside, and price.
This week, we'll look at "my guys."
"My guys" won't necessarily be "your guys."
Yes, there will be developments in August that could change our points of view. But I'm confident enough in my list to throw them out there -- along with the information, circumstances, and history that caught my attention.
I encourage you to use the same processes I do to create your own list of "my guys."
You'll find it's a worthwhile endeavor. Having a list of players you know appeal to you can create breathing room in tough drafts.
We'll get the ball rolling with running backs.
Monitor Hall
The Jets just told us what they think of Breece Hall by signing him to a three-year, $43.5 million extension with $29 million guaranteed, the fourth-highest average among running backs.
Even with head coach Aaron Glenn talking about a backfield rotation (again), I'm following the money -- and the talent -- here.
Hall's 2023 season -- 1,585 scrimmage yards, 76 catches, RB2 finish -- showed us his ceiling.
2024 was a step back. He finished as RB16, but blame the Jets' offense, which ranked 29th in yards, not Hall.
He carried a top-10 rushing attack almost alone.
This year brings real change: Geno Smith upgrades the QB spot, and new coordinator Frank Reich is known for unlocking backs as receivers. Expect Hall's targets to climb.
Since entering the league, Hall ranks top-10 among RBs in scrimmage yards, yards per touch, receptions, and receiving yards -- despite the noise around him.
His RB14 ADP put him in RB2 territory.
Still, the possibility that Hall, whose Footballguys projection calls for an RB12 finish, hits the high end of his range of outcomes is something I'm willing to bet on in Round 3.
Steady Can Win the Race
Dallas signed Javonte Williams to a three-year, $24 million extension in February -- before he even hit free agency -- locking in the guy who quietly delivered career highs across the board: personal bests in carries and rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns matching his prior four seasons combined, and a first career 1,000-yard season good for a top-10 finish among all backs.
The coaches back it up. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer calls him "an absolute pounder . . . going to score 12 touchdowns every year for us."
The volume supports it too: 19 opportunities per game, double-digit touches in all 16 contests, 62 red-zone touches (fifth among RBs), and 51 targets (11th).
Sure, there's talk that this is the year that Jaydon Blue will make contributions behind Williams.
But, barring the unforeseen, Williams should remain the clear lead back.
With a locked-in role, solid line, and coaches who trust Williams, I'm bullish for another RB1 season after last year's RB12 finish. An RB17 ADP and late-third-round price make him a solid value with enough upside that I'm comfortable drafting him as my first running back if I go with other positions in the first two rounds.
An Irresistible Force
The Giants passed on Travis Etienne Jr. and Ken Walker III in free agency. They skipped the position entirely in the draft -- instead investing in run blocking (Francis Mauigoa, Patrick Ricard, Andrew Thomas) to better serve new coach John Harbaugh's ground-and-pound vision.
It's the perfect setup for Cam Skattebo, who's already offered proof of concept.
Before a Week 8 ankle injury, Skattebo averaged 16.0 carries, 4.7 targets, and 96.3 yards with six TDs over six full games -- good for RB10 despite not starting until Week 4. In his three fully healthy starts, he was RB8.
He's fully cleared for camp, and our projections call for 211 carries, 893 yards, and 42 catches.
While he was on the field last season, Skattebo drew a 15 percent target share and 80 percent of goal-line carries. This year, new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is importing Kansas City's screen-heavy scheme.
My own ranking -- I have Skattebo as RB12 -- is aggressive. But we saw last year, his upside exceeds my number.
Skattebo's RB19 ADP doesn't reflect that. He's undervalued.
Meet the New Boss
The Texans traded for David Montgomery to fill the void left by Joe Mixon's lost 2025 season. As Texans insider Aaron Wilson put it: "He can do it all."
The track record backs that up. Montgomery never finished outside RB2 territory in four years with Chicago, including an RB5 campaign in 2020. In Detroit, even splitting work with Jahmyr Gibbs, he delivered two more top-20 seasons.
Houston needs exactly this. Without Mixon, Nick Chubb flopped, and the run game ranked 22nd in the league, getting stonewalled in the playoff loss to New England. Wilson says the Texans are building a "smashmouth" offense around Montgomery as the bell cow -- the same approach that made Mixon RB10 on a per-game basis in 2024.
Montgomery's ADP sits at RB20 with a late-fourth-round price. Give him the volume, and he outperforms that easily -- with RB1 weeks in the mix.