We've focused on blind spots and smart drafting this week, rolling through running backs, wide receivers, and quarterbacks and tight ends. Now it's time to shift the focus to new developments that are driving Average Draft Positions (ADP) and creating value.
DON'T MISS OUT: Order the 2026 Footballguys Draft Guide before they are all gone.
The fantasy edge in August isn't reacting to every new development. Instead, it's determining which information actually changes price, role, or probability enough to demand action.
The Vikings Make a Call at Quarterback
The expected became official on Tuesday when the Vikings named Kyler Murray their starting quarterback. As ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert noted, it was the expected conclusion to the team's quarterback competition despite a rocky series of practices leading to the decision.
Murray has been the heavy favorite to win the job from the moment he signed a one-year, $1.3 million contract on March 12 after his release by the Arizona Cardinals, who will pay him $35.5 million.
The decision pushes J.J. McCarthy, the No. 10 pick of the 2024 draft, to the No. 2 quarterback role after 10 career starts and raises questions about his future.
Head coach Kevin O'Connell said that although it was an open competition between Murray and McCarthy, O'Connell had always planned to decide on this time frame to give the team clarity before the preseason began.
O'Connell said Murray had "shown enough" of his command of the offense to merit the nod.
What Does It Mean?
Murray has moved into QB1 territory in my rankings based on this news. I have him as QB12.
Why?
Since 2014, 31 out of 34 quarterbacks -- more than 90 percent -- who reached 100 or more rushing attempts in a season finished as a top-12 fantasy QB on a points-per-game basis.
In the five seasons in which he's played more than eight games, Murray has averaged 91.8 carries a year. He's also averaged just over 456 rushing yards and 4.5 touchdowns on the ground per season.
Murray is one of five players in NFL history to throw for more than 20,000 yards and run for more than 3,000 yards.
Before last season, Murray had finished each of his first six NFL seasons as a top-12 fantasy QB on a points-per-game basis.
He's thrown for 121 touchdowns and 60 interceptions in seven seasons as a pro. Murray also has 32 rushing touchdowns.
Should we expect a repeat of his QB2 2020 campaign (Murray ran for 891 yards and 11 touchdowns on 133 carries that year)?
No. But it demonstrates how high his rushing ceiling could be.
What Else Does It Mean?
Jefferson finished the 2025 season as WR20, but his 11.9-point-per-game average -- which ranked 30th -- better reflects his struggles.
Despite having a down statistical year, Jefferson is still among the best wide receivers in the NFL. He delivered over 1,800 receiving yards in 2022 and had 1,400-plus yards in 2024.
Murray being named the starter opens the door to Jefferson's return to the top of the receiving ranks.
Matthew Coller, who covers the Vikings on Substack at Purple Insider, recently pointed out that when Murray has had even relatively comparable players, they have fared well.
When he threw the ball to DeAndre Hopkins, Murray posted a 109.5 rating. When he passed the ball to Trey McBride, he completed 74.9 percent and had a 94.7 rating. When Murray threw to Christian Kirk, he had a 98.4 rating.
Conversely, Murray struggled when targeting Michael Wilson (74.1), Marvin Harrison Jr. (87.4), and other lesser lights.
Again, Jefferson is not a lesser light.
Between 2020 and 2024, the QB rating for anyone throwing to Jefferson was 108.4, the eighth-best in the NFL among all receivers with at least 300 targets.
It comes down to one thing: Jefferson having a quarterback he can connect with.
McCarthy wasn't that guy, and the numbers without McCarthy bear that out.
Jefferson has played 16 games (or more) in five of his six NFL seasons. In the four before last year, he finished no worse than WR6.
He finished better than that in the other three seasons, and based on Jefferson's current WR5 ADP, investors are already banking on a return to form.
