Surprise stars. There's nothing better in fantasy football. It's like McDonald's bringing back the fried apple pies.
Now put one in a bowl and dump soft-serve all over it so I can die happy.
Landing a player who smashes expectations and goes on to have a big year is how fantasy championships are made. People obsess over Round 1, but it's Round 6 where leagues are won. Round 8. Round 10.
Of course, once a surprise star has his coming-out party, the cat is out of the bag. No more flying under the radar. What was once a penny stock is now a blue chip. And if fantasy managers want a share, it's going to cost far more than the season before.
And that begs the question—was that big year a one-off? An anomaly? Are they a tornado that tears through the fantasy landscape for minutes before vanishing into the night? Or a hurricane that slowly crawls across it for years, wreaking long-term havoc?
Yes, I forced that metaphor so I could use that video. I'm a terrible person. This is not news.
It's a conundrum fantasy drafters face each and every year, and 2026 is no different.
Are the surprise stars of 2025 true fantasy monsters?
Or was last year a mirage?
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
After a massively disappointing fourth season, Lawrence paid off on the big contract he signed two years ago in 2025—in Liam Coen's first year as head coach, Lawrence surpassed 4,000 passing yards, tossed a career-high 29 touchdown passes, added nine more scores on the ground and finished fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks.
Not bad for a guy whose average draft position a year ago was 20th among quarterbacks.
Verdict: Monster
Granted, those nine rushing scores aren't likely to be repeated. But Lawrence has a lot of things going for him, whether it's a sneaky-good cadre of wide receivers in Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington or a coach in Coen who appears to excel at getting the most out of his signal-caller.
With an ADP at Footballguys still outside the top-10 among quarterbacks, Lawrence is an excellent target for patient drafters.
QB Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
Stafford's 2024 season was nothing to write home about, and he was all but an afterthought in fantasy drafts, with an ADP of QB23. But Stafford won more than a few folks' leagues last year—he paced the NFL in both passing yards and touchdown passes, finished second to Josh Allen in fantasy points, and was named the NFL's most valuable player.
Verdict: Mirage
Mind you, this isn't to say that Stafford will be a bust in 2026—his QB12 ADP isn't unreasonable. But Stafford is almost certainly going to regress this season. His touchdown percentage of 7.7 last season was the highest of his 17-year career. He had just 44 touchdown passes in 2023 and 2024 combined, and last year was Stafford's first 4,000-yard campaign since the Rams won the Super Bowl in 2021.
RB Javonte Williams, Dallas
No one exactly did cartwheels about Williams' move to Dallas last season after four up-and-down years in Denver, but they were when the season ended—Williams eclipsed 1,200 rushing yards, averaged a career-best 4.8 yards per carry, scored 11 times on the ground and finished the season 11th in PPR points among running backs.
Verdict: Monster
Williams isn't cheap this year—the 26-year-old isn't making it out of the first round on average. But his RB17 ADP is closer to Williams' fantasy floor than his ceiling. The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL, and it is unchanged since last season. Williams is a good bet to at least see the 287 touches he did in 2025.
Pairing two top-10 wide receivers with Williams isn't a bad way to start a draft.