RELATED: See all of our 2026 Player Spotlights here
Road to Redemption
After a stellar rookie campaign, Bucky Irving’s average draft position (ADP) in 2025 skyrocketed into the top 20. High on his upside, fantasy managers aggressively clicked select, banking on the sophomore running back to serve as a foundational anchor for their rosters. For the first month of the season, that faith was fully rewarded. Irving spearheaded the Tampa Bay backfield from Weeks 1 to 4, commanding a robust 63% rushing share and delivering top-15 fantasy RB finishes in every single contest.
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Then, the wheels came off. Injuries struck, forcing Irving to clog fantasy benches before he was ultimately phased into a muddy committee alongside Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.
Fast forward to the current 2026 draft season, and Irving has transformed from a trendy breakout darling into a player managers are actively avoiding. His ADP has plummeted into the mid-50s over the last month. A toxic mix of offseason shoulder surgery, backfield role anxiety, and new competition for touches is driving this steep discount. However, the market is severely overreacting to a situation that is far more stable than it appears on the surface.
Running Back ADP Fallers (Last 30 Days)
| # | Player | Underdog ADP | Drafters ADP | DraftKings ADP | Consensus ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Jacobs | 38.9 (-12.3 ▼) |
45.4 (-17.3 ▼) |
44.3 (-14.5 ▼) |
42.9 (-14.7 ▼) |
| 2 | Bucky Irving | 53.2 (-10.2 ▼) |
59.5 (-15.9 ▼) |
55.6 (-11.2 ▼) |
56.1 (-12.4 ▼) |
| 3 | RJ Harvey | 85.0 (-2.5 ▼) |
85.7 (-4.2 ▼) |
77.8 (-1.0 ▼) |
82.8 (-2.6 ▼) |
| 4 | TreVeyon Henderson | 48.9 (-2.8 ▼) |
55.9 (-2.4 ▼) |
58.1 (-2.3 ▼) |
54.3 (-2.5 ▼) |
| 5 | Chuba Hubbard | 70.6 (-3.3 ▼) |
70.5 (-4.4 ▼) |
71.1 (+0.4 ▲) |
70.7 (-2.4 ▼) |
The Pre-Injury Blueprint
To understand Irving's ceiling, we have to look back at his rookie trajectory. He narrowly missed an elite RB1 finish, concluding his debut season as the overall RB13. While that final ranking is impressive, he didn't truly seize absolute control of the backfield until the second half of the year.
Following the Buccaneers' Week 11 bye, Irving exploded to rank as the overall RB6 in total fantasy points over the remainder of the season. During that scintillating seven-game stretch, he:
- Led Tampa Bay with 22 red-zone carries.
- Logged three weeks with 20+ PPR points.
- Commanded an elite 10% target share, ranking in the top 10 for all NFL running backs.
Irving paired this heavy volume with elite, league-leading efficiency metrics:
| Metric (via PlayerProfiler) | Value | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Touch | 6.0 |
Top 5 |
| Total Yards Created | 1,255 |
Top 4 |
| Evaded Tackles Per Game | 4.4 |
Top 5 |
Even during that dominant stretch from Weeks 12 to 18, his only underwhelming fantasy performances came while playing through a nagging back injury that limited him in practice. Tampa Bay saw enough of this high-end alpha profile to double down on him entering 2025. Prior to his mid-season injuries last year, Irving again ranked among the top five running backs in rushing attempts. When healthy, the Buccaneers have never hesitated to ride him as a true bell-cow.