Josh Allen hasn't had help in the form of a genuine No. 1 receiver since losing Stefon Diggs after the 2023 season. Despite not having an elite receiving option in either of the past two seasons, Allen won the MVP in 2024 and finished as the overall fantasy QB1 in 2025. Over those two seasons, he became the only player in NFL history to have at least 3,600 passing yards in consecutive seasons while no one on the team had more than 825 receiving yards. Can he be expected to produce another elite season?
With DJ Moore arriving via trade and Joe Brady retaining play-calling responsibilities as head coach, the answer is an emphatic yes. Fantasy managers should not hesitate to draft Allen as their QB1 in any format.
Josh Allen Excels in Joe Brady's Offensive Scheme
The Bills fired head coach Sean McDermott, the only NFL head coach Josh Allen has played for, in January following another disappointing playoff exit. The team promoted from within, elevating offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach. Brady joined the Bills as quarterbacks coach in February 2022 and became offensive coordinator in November 2023. The 2026 season will be the fifth that Brady and Allen have been together. Brady will retain play-calling duties as head coach.
Brady's offense inverted Allen's passing game compared to his predecessors, Ken Dorsey (2022-23) and Brian Daboll (2018-21). Prior to Brady taking over, Allen had one of the lowest yards after completion per reception (YAC/comp) but was near the top in air yards, both completed (CAY) and intended (IAY). With Brady calling the plays, those numbers flipped. Allen has been among the league leaders in yards after the catch per completion (YAC/comp) and in the middle of the pack in completed air yards per completion (CAY/comp) and intended air yards per pass attempt (IAY/att) since Brady became OC.
Allen's YAC and Air Yard Metrics in Each OC's System
| Coordinator | YAC/comp | Rank | CAY/comp | Rank | IAY/att | Rank | No. of QBs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daboll | 4.72 | 35th | 6.58 | 9th | 8.94 | 5th | 43 |
| Dorsey | 4.55 | 36th | 6.83 | 3rd | 8.91 | 3rd | 39 |
| Brady | 6.15 | 3rd | 5.66 | 25th | 8.07 | 21st | 48 |
With Dorsey as his OC, Allen ranked 36th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks with 4.55 yards after catch per completion. His 8.91 intended air yards per attempt and 6.83 completed air yards per completion both ranked third. Since Brady took over as OC in Week 11 of 2023, Allen has been 3rd in YAC/completion (6.1), 21st in IAY/attempt (8.1), and 25th in CAY/completion (5.7) among 48 qualifying quarterbacks.
Percent of Allen's Pass Attempts by Distance with Each OC
| Depth | Daboll | Dorsey | Brady |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 yards | 39.9% | 42.2% | 46.6% |
| 5-14 yards | 36.7% | 32.6% | 29.9% |
| >15 yards | 23.5% | 25.2% | 23.5% |
Brady's scheme does not get the ball out of Allen's hands any faster than before; his average time to throw has been around 2.7 seconds under all three coordinators. Allen is simply not throwing it as far, on average, shifting intermediate throws into shorter depths, including behind the line of scrimmage. However, his percentage of targets farther than 15 yards downfield has remained steady, so the deeper throw remains a regular part of Allen's arsenal.
Elite With or Without Elite Weapons
Josh Allen has finished no worse than the fantasy QB3 for six straight seasons. For the first four of those seasons, 2020-23, he passed for at least 4,000 yards each year, amassing 17,540 passing yards and 137 touchdowns, both second only to Patrick Mahomes II. Diggs was fourth among wide receivers with 5,372 yards and 37 touchdowns over the same period. Allen targeted Diggs 644 times, more than double the next most-targeted player, Gabe Davis (299). Diggs posted four fantasy WR1 seasons in PPR formats, accounting for 30 percent of the team's receiving yards and more than a quarter of the team's receiving touchdowns.
Diggs was nonetheless unhappy with his role, while off-field issues and declining on-field performance contributed to the Bills' decision to trade their WR1 to Houston before the 2024 NFL Draft.
Allen's Top Receivers, 2018-25
| Year | Receiver | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Team Yds | Team TDs | % Team Yds | % Team TDs | PPR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Zay Jones | 652 | 7 | 3068 | 13 | 21.3% | 53.8% | WR35 |
| 2019 | John Brown | 1060 | 6 | 3448 | 20 | 30.7% | 30.0% | WR20 |
| 2020 | Stefon Diggs | 1535 | 8 | 4743 | 38 | 32.4% | 21.1% | WR3 |
| 2021 | Stefon Diggs | 1225 | 10 | 4450 | 36 | 27.5% | 27.8% | WR7 |
| 2022 | Stefon Diggs | 1455 | 11 | 4324 | 35 | 33.6% | 31.4% | WR4 |
| 2023 | Stefon Diggs | 1183 | 8 | 4306 | 29 | 27.5% | 27.6% | WR9 |
| 2024 | Khalil Shakir | 821 | 4 | 3938 | 30 | 20.8% | 13.3% | WR37 |
| 2025 | Khalil Shakir | 719 | 4 | 3981 | 29 | 18.1% | 13.8% | WR36 |
Buffalo drafted Keon Coleman with the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft to fill Diggs's role as the X receiver. He has not lived up to expectations, managing 67 career receptions for 960 yards and 8 touchdowns in his two seasons. By the end of last season, he had become an afterthought in the offense. He was targeted just 14 times after Week 10 and was a healthy scratch for several late-season games.
Khalil Shakir has instead operated as Allen's top target since Diggs left, primarily running short routes from the slot. His 3.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in 2025 is the lowest among wide receivers with at least 250 receiving yards over the past four seasons, but he averaged 7.5 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/rec), third-best among all players with at least 40 receptions last season.
Shakir is a perfect fit for Brady's offensive scheme, but he was never intended to be the team's WR1. He won't have to be this year.