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Tyler Shough took over as the Saints' starting quarterback in Week 9 last season and produced as the fantasy QB9 over the rest of the season. The 26-year-old rookie won four of his final five starts, completing 114 of 163 passes for 1,316 yards and 5 touchdowns against 2 interceptions over that span. He added another 135 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. Fantasy managers are expecting him to build on that late-season success as a potential QB1 sleeper.
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However, those games were against teams that went a combined 30-55, three of which were among the worst pass defenses in the league. Against that subpar competition, Shough produced well enough to earn the starting job for 2026. Reasons for optimism include the addition of two new offensive weapons, the return of starting center Erik McCoy, and the prospect of playing one of the league's easiest schedules.
Shough Performances Compared to Season-long Pass Defense Ranks
| Opponent (Week) | EPA/Pass | Yds/Att | Comp % | QB Rating | YAC OE | Shough PPR | Weekly Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Rams (9) | 10th | 11th | 15th | 9th | 23rd | 9.2 | QB22 |
| Carolina (10) | 24th | 23rd | 23rd | 11th | 17th | 19.0 | QB11 |
| Atlanta (12) | 14th | 19th | 10th | 12th | 2nd | 9.9 | QB19 |
| Miami (13) | 25th | 28th | 32nd | 29th | 21st | 17.4 | QB13 |
| Tampa Bay (14) | 20th | 27th | 26th | 24th | 29th | 21.3 | QB6 |
| Carolina (15) | 24th | 23rd | 23rd | 11th | 17th | 18.1 | QB15 |
| NY Jets (16) | 32nd | 25th | 20th | 32nd | 26th | 17.1 | QB15 |
| Tennessee (17) | 29th | 32nd | 31st | 30th | 28th | 21.9 | QB9 |
| Atlanta (18) | 14th | 19th | 10th | 12th | 2nd | 21.8 | QB5 |
Fantasy drafters should consider Shough as a mid-QB2 with the potential to deliver low-end QB1 value, at least when he's facing lower-tier passing defenses. But a significant step forward isn't required for the Saints' offense to improve, and an improved offense might rely on Shough less rather than more, capping his potential value.
2025 Season Review
Tyler Shough was drafted by the Saints early in the second round, 40th overall, of the 2025 NFL Draft. The team spent a fifth-round pick on Spencer Rattler the year before, and he started the seven games Derek Carr missed due to abdominal and shoulder injuries. Carr retired before last season, though he has held the door ajar if the right opportunity came along. It is unlikely to be in New Orleans.
After a spirited training-camp competition, Rattler edged out Shough to be the opening-week starter, though neither inspired confidence. Rattler started the season's first eight games, during which the team went 1-7 and averaged 16 points per game. First-year head coach Kellen Moore made the switch to Shough after Rattler committed six turnovers in a 26-14 loss to Chicago and a 23-3 loss at Tampa Bay.
The offense showed signs of improvement with Shough, particularly between the 20-yard lines, but it continued to struggle in the red zone. The Saints went 5-4 in Shough's starts but averaged fewer than 20 points a game. The Saints lost Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy to a torn biceps before Shough became the starter. The team traded Rashid Shaheed, the team's second-best receiver in yards per game, following Shough's first start. The team's leading rusher, Alvin Kamara, was lost after Shough's first three starts due to ankle and knee injuries. Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill played in all of Shough's starts but delivered arguably the worst season of his career. The Saints also put themselves behind the chains with 32 accepted offensive penalties that cost the team 222 yards over Shough's starts.
Dead in the Red Zone
The Saints scored touchdowns on 44 percent of drives that entered the red zone, the worst rate in the league. They scored just eight touchdowns on plays run from or inside the 10-yard line, split evenly between Rattler and Shough's starts.
With Rattler starting, half of first- and second-down plays run inside the 10-yard line were passes. Kamara played on 17 out of 20 snaps inside the 10-yard line; he had five carries for eight yards and was targeted twice.
Red Zone Play Mix in Rattler's Starts (Weeks 1-8)
| Situation | Plays | Rank | Rush | Pass | Pass Pct | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Zone Total | 60 | 26th | 23 | 37 | 61.7% | 7th |
| Outside 10 Total | 40 | 19th | 15 | 25 | 62.5% | 10th |
| Outside 10 1D/2D | 28 | 15th | 13 | 15 | 53.6% | 17th |
| Outside 10 3D/4D | 12 | 7th | 2 | 10 | 83.3% | 9th |
| Inside 10 Total | 20 | 31st | 8 | 12 | 60.0% | 8th |
| Inside 10 1D/2D | 14 | 31st | 7 | 7 | 50.0% | 12th |
| Inside 10 3D/4D | 6 | 27th | 1 | 5 | 83.3% | 6th |
Red Zone Play Mix in Shough's Starts (Weeks 9-18)
| Situation | Snaps | Rank | Rush | Pass | Pass Pct | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Zone Total | 67 | 28th | 37 | 30 | 44.8% | 27th |
| Outside 10 Total | 37 | 29th | 14 | 23 | 62.2% | 7th |
| Outside 10 1D/2D | 30 | 25th | 17 | 13 | 56.7% | 8th |
| Outside 10 3D/4D | 7 | 30th | 1 | 6 | 85.7% | 5th |
| Inside 10 Total | 30 | 28th | 23 | 7 | 23.3% | 32nd |
| Inside 10 1D/2D | 16 | 31st | 14 | 2 | 12.5% | 32nd |
| Inside 10 3D/4D | 14 | 16th | 9 | 5 | 35.7% | 32nd |
With Tyler Shough starting, the Saints became a run-heavy team inside the 10-yard line, rushing on 88 percent of early-down plays and 64 percent of third- and fourth-down plays, both the highest rates in the league. While that sounds like the hallmark of a strong rushing team, the Saints were abysmal, ranking 30th in success rate, 30th in rushing touchdowns, and 28th in yards per carry inside the 10-yard line. They were stuffed 59 percent of the time, which was ninth-worst in the league, while averaging 0.80 yards per carry after contact, which was eighth-worst.
A contributing factor was the absence of starting center Erik McCoy. To be clear, the running game was not very good with him in the lineup, but it was worse without him. This was especially evident in man/gap runs. In Weeks 1-7, when McCoy was active, almost 40 percent of the Saints' runs were man/gap, and they had a 47.2 percent success rate, ranking 23rd, according to Fantasy Points Data. In Weeks 8-18, without McCoy, just over a quarter of the Saints' runs were man/gap, and their success rate fell to 34.8 percent, third-worst in the league.
Additionally, Taysom Hill struggled after seeing his role increase, with 41 out of 52 carries and 13 of 16 targets coming in Shough's starts. Hill posted career lows in rushing yards, yards per attempt, and rushing success rate. His share of the team's inside-the-10 rushing attempts roughly tripled, from about 11 percent during Rattler's starts to about 30 percent during Shough's, but he did not find the end zone.
Despite a lack of success running the ball, Shough only attempted three passes inside the 10-yard line, completing one, which resulted in a 10-yard touchdown pass to Kevin Austin Jr.
