2026 has been red hot offensively. The league is averaging 23.1 points per team, the fifth-highest total in history and the most since the offensive explosion in 2020. Passing yards ticked up last week; the 22.1.1 average is the 13th-highest. Tyler Shough has the most pass attempts to start a season since Tom Brady in 2021. Bryce Young's 1,268 are the most since Tua Tagovailoa in 2023. CeeDee Lamb fell 2 yards short of becoming the 23rd receiver with 500 yards through 4 games.
Pretty fun!
How does the whole league's target landscape look heading into Week 5?
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
These passing attacks center on two key players. Shared targets can make it hard for the rest of the receiving corps to produce meaningfully. A third option still exists, but targets should be extremely consolidated or high-volume.
| Team Name | Team Targets | Player Name | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | ADOT | YAC | QB Rating | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 35 | Michael Wilson | 13 | 7-95-0 | 37% | 9.5 | 26 | 37.8 | 94% |
| Trey McBride | 12 | 7-31-0 | 34% | 5.8 | 15 | 63.2 | 97% | ||
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 4 | 1-12-1 | 11% | 10.8 | 0 | 39.6 | 65% | ||
| Minnesota | 33 | T.J. Hockenson | 13 | 13-119-0 | 39% | 6.4 | 36 | 104.8 | 83% |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 8 | 4-34-0 | 24% | 0.8 | 30 | 61.5 | 73% | ||
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 4-52-0 | 18% | 8.5 | 39 | 93.8 | 96% | ||
| NY Giants | 29 | Isaiah Likely | 12 | 7-66-0 | 41% | 9.3 | 28 | 38.9 | 66% |
| Malik Nabers | 7 | 6-112-1 | 24% | 16.1 | 7 | 158.3 | 76% | ||
| Malachi Fields | 3 | 2-52-1 | 10% | 21 | 4 | 109.7 | 66% |
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Harrison scored early, giving hope of a bigger day, but volume still went to Wilson and McBride as the Cardinals played another shootout. The shootouts are not stopping in Week 5; Arizona has Detroit's porous defense and strong offense, making the Cardinals excellent plays in DFS and season-long formats. Wilson and McBride have combined for 61% of the Cardinals' targets (90 of 148) on the season, while Harrison's 13 trails Kendrick Bourne's 14. The overall numbers on Wilson and McBride are not fantastic; both are tracking to barely clear 1,000 yards. Wilson has come on while McBride's yardage has faded. Do not be surprised if Harrison is traded. Until that happens, or until an injury, this offense has only two fantasy options.
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Speaking of the Cardinals and McBride. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Hockenson tied his career high and the Vikings tight end record with 13 receptions. Kyler Murray often checked down to deeper receivers, treating Hockenson like his new McBride. The Vikings were without Justin Jefferson, and Murray will be expected to take the chance with Jefferson; otherwise, the leash will get short. The Vikings signed Odell Beckham Jr., suggesting either concern about Jefferson's timeline or disappointment with Jauan Jennings, who has made minimal contributions. New Orleans struggled against Atlanta, though we thought Murray was in a good spot vs. Miami, and production did not follow.
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There is the Jameis Winston we know and love. Likely bounced back after seeing heavy volume without production the previous weeks. Nabers has been utilized at a much deeper target depth, working over the top of Likely, with an entirely new coaching staff. He looked his best all season, playing through contact on a ball in the air. Winston remains the starter for Week 5, and no substantial rumors suggest J.J. McCarthy is playing soon. Washington's defense opens another opportunity to air out the offense. Likely, Nabers needs to be in lineups, while Winston is a Superflex or deeper-league streamer.
