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Every year, NFL players change teams after their respective contracts expire. The player movement creates opportunity for NFL players and fantasy owners alike. This article will look at the players whose contracts are up after the 2014 season and could change teams next offseason, and identify the beneficiaries of the player movement. Free Agency impacts fantasy football and those fantasy owners who anticipate correctly the situations usually come out on top.
Quarterback
Andy Dalton is the only quarterback this year with an expiring contract who will never hit free agency, either due to getting a new deal or playing under the Franchise Tag. Whether you love Dalton or loathe him, he will be in Cincinnati for years to come. It would take an abysmal season for the team to go in another direction.
Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder are all quietly on the last year of their rookie contracts. None of the three has lived up to expectations after being selected in the first round of the NFL draft.
One interesting veteran to monitor is Alex Smith. Will he play well enough to warrant a contract extension with the Chiefs? If Smith departs Kansas City, his successor is not currently on the team.
A quarterback almost guaranteed to change teams is New England's Ryan Mallett. Mallett was a hot name as a potential trade target of the Houston Texans after their coaching change. He could become a hot commodity, signing a contract as a starting passer in 2015.
One lesser known player to watch this preseason is Brian Hoyer of the Cleveland Browns. Hoyer player well in limited duty to begin the 2013 season, but is now relegated to watching rookie Johnny Manziel. There could be a team sign Hoyer to compete with a youngster next spring.
Running Back
This group will have much more movement than the quarterbacks. Running backs are thought to have little value over a long term. This creates churn at the position … and the churn creates opportunity for fantasy owners.
Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter are free agents in San Francisco after the year. Gore has been very productive for the 49ers, but there is little reason for the team to extend his contract. Hunter is more of a complementary back and has a better chance of remaining in San Francisco. His role is locked in and Hunter has little chance of an expanded role, regardless of the circumstances. However, with both backs free agents, it is now easy to see why Carlos Hyde was selected early in the NFL Draft. He will be groomed to be the bellcow for 2015 and beyond. Marcus Lattimore is still recovering from multiple knee injuries and should be monitored in preseason to see if he is regaining the lost explosion.
Fred Jackson is quickly nearing the end of his career and the big handwriting on the wall is that he will not be back in Buffalo after the 2014 campaign. The Bills signed Anthony Dixon from San Francisco and traded for Bryce Brown from Philadelphia. Brown could have an expanded role this season as the aging Jackson is phased out. Both are talented and could push for carries soon.
The Raiders signed Maurice Jones-Drew to a three-year contract a few months ago, almost guaranteeing that Darren McFadden will leave as a free agent. Proving healthy and durable will be huge for McFadden. He has never lacked for talent or opportunity, just production and health.
Knowshon Moreno signed a one-year contract in Miami after a solid year in Denver. Moreno had almost no market for his services in free agency. He has not begun his tenure with the Dolphins well, showing up overweight and out of shape. There could be even less of a market next offseason if this continues.
Many forget how the Chargers scooped up Danny Woodhead on the cheap after he unceremoniously left New England. He only signed a two-year deal at the time. Ryan Mathews is also a free agent after this season. San Diego signed Donald Brown, but cannot expect to move forward without Woodhead and Mathews. Yes, Marion Grice was selected in the sixth round. However, there is no way he and the oft-injured Brown are enough to sustain the Chargers running game. If Mathews can stay healthy another season – a big if – he will be a likely candidate for a contract extension.
The Patriots have experienced turnover at the position almost every year. This will be the final season Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are under contract. New England let LeGarrette Blount depart this offseason (to Pittsburgh) and could allow one or both of these talented runners to leave next year. The team drafted James White, a versatile back from Wisconsin and still have Brandon Bolden buried on the depth chart. Bolden is a Restricted Free Agent, himself, next year. White was selected high enough that the Patriots plan for him to have a role going forward.
The Dallas Cowboys have already begun trying to lock up DeMarco Murray for a few more years. The chances of him playing elsewhere in 2015 is remote, but needs to be listed just in case. There is a chance. Murray is the only viable rusher in Dallas with Lance Dunbar playing the third-down role.
There are others like BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Mikel Leshoure who are not slated to have big roles on their respective teams to begin the season. Green-Ellis is expected to be passed by rookie Jeremy Hill this year. The Colts are hoping Trent Richardson will step up and be the primary ball carrier. Leshoure has virtually little upside in Detroit. He could land in a committee next year, but is not worth accounting for a year in advance.
Wide Receiver
The good wide receivers rarely change teams. Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant are superstars at the position who will not make it to free agency. But, there are several intriguing players who may be wearing different uniforms in 2015.
The Green Bay Packers will have decisions to make. The top two starters, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, are free agents after the year, and the third starter Jarrett Boykin will be a Restricted Free Agent. There is no way the team can keep all three, and this is why Davante Adams was picked in the second round of May's NFL Draft. Adams will need a year to mature and develop. Cobb and Nelson are both very talented so choosing one over the other will be difficult. At best, Green Bay can look to extend Nelson this summer and then slap Cobb with the Franchise Tag if he has a great season.
The Falcons will look to re-sign Roddy White if he is able to rebound from an injury-plagued 2013. White is a top pass catcher and quarterback Matt Ryan needs weapons, especially until Julio Jones proves he can remain healthy season after season. With a great 2014, the market could be strong for the veteran pass catcher.
When he signed a two-year deal with the Broncos, Wes Welker was thought to be helping Peyton Manning win a championship. The two will have one more shot before Welker departs. After the signing of Emmanuel Sanders this spring, and the drafting of Cody Latimer, Welker's departure was sealed. Sanders will replace Eric Decker while Latimer is a possession receiver, drafted to replace the venerable Welker.
The Baltimore Ravens have been dependent on Torrey Smith since Anquan Boldin was traded to the San Francisco 49ers. The signing of Steve Smith will help some, but Smith is way past his prime. There is little chance the Ravens let Smith leave, but there is a chance. There would be a strong market for Smith in free agency.
The Colts have tried to surround quarterback Andrew Luck with good weapons. With both Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks unrestricted free agents after the season, there will be tough decisions for the organization. Wayne is coming back after a knee injury and Nicks was signed after a middling 2013 with the Giants. His free agent value was so low that Nicks was only able to get a one-year deal with Indianapolis. The Colts still have T.Y. Hilton as the speed receiver and selected the very athletic Donte Moncrief in third round of the draft. It is doubtful the team would go into 2015 with just Hilton and Moncrief, but you never know. Indianapolis could always add a receiver in next year's draft and sign a cheap veteran.
Jeremy Maclin is coming back after a nasty injury that derailed his 2013 campaign. If he has a solid year, reuniting with Andy Reid in Kansas City would be an option if he does not return to Philadelphia. Maclin played his college ball at Missouri. While talented, Maclin has yet to perform up to expectations. The Eagles drafted Jordan Matthews to address the loss of DeSean Jackson and could select Maclin's replacement in next year's draft.
Could the 49ers be planning for life after Michael Crabtree with the trade for Steve Johnson? Crabtree will want a contract commensurate of the top players in the league. It is unlikely San Francisco will agree. It all begins with a strong 2014 season.
Cecil Shorts is a solid receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is unknown whether suspended Justin Blackmon will return for 2015. The Jaguars prepared for the loss of Blackmon and Shorts by selecting Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in May. These two rookies are both talented and will could be starters for the team indefinitely. Shorts will have to take a small deal to stay in Jacksonville.
Denarius Moore is an unrestricted free agent and is almost certain to leave the silver and black. While talented, the consistency has not been apparent. Andre Holmes and Rod Streater are Restricted Free Agents so the chances of either departing is small, yet there is a chance so we are including. These three receivers on this list illustrate why the signing of James Jones was important.
Tight Ends
There is little chance the Broncos let Julius Thomas leave in free agency next year, but there is a chance. Demaryius Thomas will need a contract, too. We do not expect either Thomas to hit the open market – with Welker – but there is a chance.
The same goes for Jordan Cameron in Cleveland. With Josh Gordon suspended indefinitely, Cameron has a legitimate shot at being the Browns leading receiver in 2014. There is almost no way the team lets him leave. The Franchise Tag would be used first.
Expectations are rising for Kyle Rudolph this season. With Norv Turner in town and a more stable quarterback situation, Rudolph could rack up the fantasy points. The 2015 free agent situation could go either way depending on the success of the tight end this season. With a great year, the Vikings would be forced to pay up. If Rudolph is injured or regresses, it is possible he leaves town to play elsewhere.
Charles Clay is a tight end off the radar for many. Coming off a strong 2013 season, it would not be a surprise if the Dolphins extended Clay's contract. He is making a little more than $500,000 this season and would be cheap to sign long-term.
Jermaine Gresham will be bypassed by Tyler Eifert this year. Gresham will be playing for another team in 2015 unless he agrees to a lesser role with Cincinnati. Eifert is a player who will see his playing time – and fantasy numbers – increase substantially by the middle of the season.
Owen Daniels signed a one-year deal in Baltimore, following coach Kubiak to the Ravens. Daniels will be the second tight end for the team and offers little upside while Dennis Pitta is healthy. Daniels' health has been in question the past few years and offers little upside.
Rob Housler disappointed a year ago and the Cardinals selected Troy Niklas in the NFL Draft this past May. It might take Niklas a year to get up to speed, especially since he has been plagued by injuries so far. Arizona is not a team who throws to the tight end much, but is still a situation to watch.
We would like to recognize Overthecap.com for the Free Agents listed above. It is a good site for salary cap status for the NFL.
Please feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), Google+, and LinkedIN so feel free to where it is most convenient.
