The Gut Check No.367: What Makes a WR1?

What does a prototypical fantasy receiver look like in a 12-team league? Is he earning a lopsided majority of the workload in the passing game? Is he the leading option in a balanced attack? Does a specific combination of physical skills matter?  

Do teammates of quality "take away" targets from other teammates? This week, the Gut Check examines these questions and profiles receivers with the skills and supporting cast to earn top-12 fantasy production at the position.

Between 2005-2015, there has been a correlation between top-12 fantasy receivers and at least one fantasy starter at receiver or tight end that forces opposing defenses to respect balance in the passing game.

I examined 11 years of top-36 wide receiver rankings and top-12 tight end rankings. The percentage of the team representation as WR2s, WR3s, and TE1s during that 11-year period (72.4%) is lower than the percentage of WR1s with at least one fantasy-worthy cohort (78.8%), which is a sign of positive correlation. Here's the data for those of you curious.

Pct. of Teams Represented among WR2s-WR3s-TE1s 

Pct. of WR1s With Fantasy Starter Cohorts at WR or TE

Top Fantasy Wide Receivers With Starter Teammates at Receiver and/or Tight End 

Note: Rankings in parenthesis are provided for the secondary options ("Starter Teammates"). Quarterbacks listed for teams with three more fantasy starters or a single WR1 that didn't have any fantasy starter teammates (listed with an asterisk).  

OBSERVATIONS

Balanced Passing Games Rule

For the past 11 years, nearly 80 percent of the top-12 receivers come from balanced offenses with productive players that put defenses in a bind and create opportunities for primary options. Sometimes it's a seam stretcher and reliable check-down magnet from the slot like Tyler Eifert who helps A.J. Green see optimal targets. Other teams have a "possession plus" receiver capable of plays all over the field like Allen Hurns complementing Allen Robinson.  

ROAD BLOCK

It can also work in reverse, Torry Holt was the intermediate and short possession man with Isaac Bruce the big-play threat. Steve Smith (NYG) was the top-12 possession man often working from the slot and Hakeem Nicks was the big-play option. Terry Glenn's speed to stretch defenses made it easier to give Terrell Owens short underneath plays where he could run away from defenses after the catch.  

Offenses can also have peers capable of both big plays and chain moving. I'd say Holt and Bruce were close to even. So were Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Allen Robinson is more explosive than Allen Hurns but Hurns holds his own as a multidimensional threat. 

While there isn't enough data to say this is a fact of football life or an undeniable correlation, all of the tight ends in this sample are athletic players capable of stretching the field and forcing safeties to account for them. They are mismatches up the seam, split wide, or in the red zone. 

The quarterbacks who had three quality fantasy starters in the passing game (not including RB) on this list aren't a specific type. There are pocket players like Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning and more mobile types who can throw it off balance like Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, and Brett Favre. Matt Ryan and Drew Brees lie somewhere in between. 

I'm more inclined to guess that, in addition to the most obvious factor of individual skill, the supplemental factors contributing to top-12 receiver production with the most weight are a combination of competent QB play and surrounding talent at receiver or tight end. I'll give more weight to the surrounding talent. 

Monster Fantasy WRs and Lesser QB Performers: "Feed Me, Seymour"

There are mediocre to poor QB performers on this list who have paired with receivers who produced as top-12 receivers without cohorts meeting fantasy starter production standards: DeAndre Hopkins and the Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett combo, Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme, Percy Harvin and Christian Ponder, Joey Galloway and Chris Simms, Lee Evans and J.P. Losman, Calvin Johnson and Dan Orlovsky, Brandon Lloyd and Kyle Orton, Steve Johnson and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Larry Fitzgerald and John Skelton.

Not all of these WR1s performing without a strong supporting cast are size-speed-agility freaks like Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, and Randy Moss. Some are straight-line speedsters like Galloway and Evans. Others are acrobats in tight coverage like Smith, Lloyd, and Johnson. 

Factoring 'How Athletic' in Athletic NFL is Overkill, Surrounding Talent Matters Most

My recommendation is not to seek a specific "type" of athlete to place your bets on a potential top-12 receiver. Athletic ability and skill are the first steps to making the league and cracking a starting lineup. Unless the athlete is a once in a decade freak (Moss or Calvin Johnson), the caliber of surrounding talent offers more for a fantasy owner developing his draft list.

Teams with a proven, highly productive receiving weapon at tight end, slot receiver, wideout working alongside the receiver in question is a stronger indicator of hitting on that potential top-12 fantasy receiver. 

Emmanuel Sanders was a player I recommended often in 2014 for multiple reasons. I always considered Sanders a talent as far back as his days playing for June Jones at SMU. Joining Peyton Manning was another obvious factor. The analysts who got it wrong about Sanders often combined their doubts about Sanders' talent with the possibility he wouldn't earn enough opportunities in an offense with Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas.

It's dangerous to dismiss a player solely on the grounds that he might not earn enough opportunities. Even without Manning's skills, the offensive setup with these two receivers alone was enough to place a mid-round bet on Sanders. One potential concern is with players having incomplete skill sets in offenses where there are other weapons who potentially can make more of their targets and limit that incomplete player's upside. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick's career is nowhere on the same plain as Manning and he did enough to support two WR1s last year. Considering the skepticism surrounding Blake Bortles' fantasy prospects this year, the same could be said for the Jaguars quarterback. 

APPLYING THIS INFORMATION TO 2016 DRAFTS

That's why you read all this information. Here are my projected top-12 receivers and my how they fit with my observations of this information.

1. Antonio Brown: Losing Heath Miller and Martavis Bryant would be a blow for most potential WR1s but a strong offensive line, two good receiving backs, and Ben Roethlisberger in his prime still make Brown a safe bet. If Sammie Coates Jr, Markus Wheaton, and Ladarius Green offer a moderate amount of replacement value to Miller and Bryant, Brown will remain one of the safest receivers on this list. 
2. Odell Beckham: It's a rare occurrence when a rookie replacing a veteran is an instant upgrade but this may be the case with Sterling Shepard. Rueben Randle has the physical ability of a strong fantasy WR2 but he has never played to his potential. Shepard's skills remind me of Manning's old running mate Steve Smith. The Giants already consider Shepard the starter. Beckham, like Brown, has a unique combination of elite physical skills and technical acumen that makes him one of the safest receivers in fantasy drafts. 
3. Julio Jones: Jones is one of those rare physical studs who can win the ball against anyone. His 2015 campaign was arguably more impressive than Browns because the Falcons could not field a receiver or tight end who could have started for another team in the league last year. I had concerns about Jones performing as a top-5 option for those reasons and how it might change Matt Ryan's decision-making. No more. Mohamed Sanu is an upgrade and should help Matt Ryan run a more efficient offense that makes Atlanta more competitive. I wouldn't go so far to say that Sanu is as strong of an upgrade as many believe but Jones is good enough that he's arguably the safest WR1 on the list even if I think Brown and Beckham have more upside because of quarterback play. 
4. A.J. Green: Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd will not adequately replace Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu this year and Tyler Eifert is a good bet for a slow start. It won't matter for Green. He's not as strong as Julio Jones but he's as talented with the ball in the air and quicker after the catch. As long as Andy Dalton leans on Green, expect Top-12 fantasy production. "Lean on Green." I like it.  
5. Dez Bryant: Bryant is one of the best receivers in the game. He's also the one I'm most concerned about as a fantasy owner. The aged version of Jason Witten and fourth-year option Terrance Williams are competent players but this offense goes nowhere without a healthy Tony Romo. If the veteran quarterback gets hurt, the only fantasy option I'll want in Dallas is Ezekiel Elliott. If Romo stays healthy, Bryant is capable of top-five production. Since I don't project injuries, Bryant earns this lofty perch but be warned. 
6. DeAndre Hopkins: Few are considering the possibility that Brock Osweiler could be worse than Brian Hoyer. Many football fans have short memorie
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