Out of the Gate

Everybody will tell you that a win is a win, but let's face it....we all want to start 4-0. Early victories give a fantasy owner breathing space and allow for early trash talking. Additionally, winning early allows one to trade away overvalued hot players and acquire the players that can win the Championship. So what is the secret to winning early? First, you need to understand player value, but since you found this site.....we'll assume you are past that step. Equally important, though, is to analyze the first five weeks of the NFL schedule.

Many websites will publish schedule strength values, but I'll save you the time and tell you that they are mostly worthless. They usually have to do with wins the previous season which the last I checked has nothing to do with fantasy scoring. A crude method I have devised over the years is to simply use the FBG staff rankings at the defensive team position and adjust for whether the game is being played at home or away. The table below summarizes this point well:

For purposes of this metric, a bye is calculated at -3. Playing a team like Pittsburgh would earn a team a -7 if Pittsburgh is at home or a -3 if Pittsburgh was away. It's an over-simplification because all defenses are not equal. Some yield yards, but create turnovers. Others pressure the QB. Some defenses shut down the opponent's best WR, etc. But despite these limitations, I think applying this metric across the early schedule does give a pretty good relative approximation of the teams that have easy and hard schedules out of the gate.

So let's do just that (and sort by the largest sums). Easiest schedules appear at the top of this table (in green). The hardest schedules appear at the bottom of the table (in red)

The Easiest Schedules:

1. The San Francisco 49ers play a neutral or plus matchup each of the five weeks including three games at home. RB Raheem Mostert is the player I am targeting in all of my drafts.
   
   
2. The Chicago Bears play a neutral or plus matchup each of the five weeks including four games at home. RB David Montgomery is positioned to benefit here. The winner of the quarterback battle between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky should be able to hold onto the job with early success and could be a sneaky value play.
   
   
3. The Jacksonville Jaguars play a neutral or plus matchup in four of the first five weeks. A lot of these matchups are on the road which should bode well for QB Gardiner Minshew's passing statistics.
   
   
4. The Baltimore Ravens get three games at home and Cincinnati in week 5. Their tough matchup (against Kansas City in week 4) also has shootout potential. QB Lamar Jackson is a reach at his current ADP but could have even more value after the Cincinnati game.
   
   
5. The Dallas Cowboys have two tough road games (Rams and Seahawks) in the early schedule, but get stat-padding matchups against the Falcons, Browns, and Giants at home.

The Hardest Schedules:

1. The New York Giants face a murderous row out of the gate with five negative matchups in their first five games. Three of these games will also be on the road. Your Giant players that seemed like good value might be better to trade for than drafting.
   
   
2. The Miami Dolphins face both the Patriots and the 49ers on the road and have only one plus matchup in their early schedule. The 2020 Dolphins have more talent this year, but they still might struggle mightily in the early season.
   
   
3. The Houston Texans play the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers (two of the games on the road) in the first three weeks. No NFL team has a harder start.
   
   
4. The Vegas Raiders draw both the Patriots and Chiefs on the road in the early going. Each of their first five games is a negative matchup.
   
   
5. The Broncos' early schedule is mixed, but playing Pittsburgh and New England on the road is exceptionally difficult in the early going.

Bottom Line:

If you want to draft a team that starts hot, lean on players from San Francisco, Chicago, Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Dallas while minimizing players from Tennessee, Denver, Las Vegas, Houston, Miami, and New York Giants.