Running Back Roulette With Early Best-Ball Values: The Fantasy Notebook
By Bob Harris - Exclusive to Footballguys
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Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Setting the Market Before It's Set
As noted last week, I'm all in on best-ball drafts. I love them. I say this realizing you might not share in my enthusiasm -- especially this time of year. After all, we're heading into the first week of April. While the bulk of free agency is in our rearview mirror, moves are still coming, and the NFL Draft is more than three weeks away.
But that's what makes this moment valuable.
Early best ball isn't about building the perfect team -- it's about spotting mispriced talent before the market corrects. Even if you're not diving into the draft rooms yet, following current ADP trends -- and how they evolve -- is a powerful way to set baselines and sharpen projections.
That's the plan here. I'm comparing early best-ball ADP with Footballguys' 2025 Draft Projections to find where expectations and opportunities diverge.
Last week, we tackled quarterbacks. This week?
RB Values: Follow the Volume, Look For Discounts
Best ball shifts the RB strategy. No waivers, no trades, no start/sit decisions -- just spike weeks and survival.
But that doesn't mean best-ball results don't inform redraft. Certain truths apply across formats. Chief among them: Volume is king.
That said, we're not chasing just any volume. We want the right volume at the right price. Based on early Average Draft Position (ADP), Rounds 1 through 3 are packed with actionable opportunities.
I'll walk through each round, highlighting key names, comparing roles and projections, and explaining how I'm splitting the hairs between similarly priced backs. You might see things differently -- and that's okay. You're pretty smart.
The goal is to provide insight into my processes to help inform yours.
Let's dive in . . .
Round 1: Workhorses Vs. WR Stars: Are The RBs Worth It?
The list of running backs with first-round price tags is mostly what you'd expect:
Yes, Jeanty going at the tail end of the first stanza is a little surprising. Still, a quick look at the full Footballguys 2025 Underdog Average Draft Position data suggests drafters are high on this entire class (six rookies are being drafted among the first 36 running backs), but let's start breaking things down.
The Cream Of The Crop
As Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith recently reminded readers, Saquon Barkley had one of the best seasons ever by a running back. He rushed for 2,504 yards over the regular and postseasons, breaking the previous single-season record Terrell Davis held while leading his new team on its Super Bowl run. Though Barkley had a chance to take down Eric Dickerson's regular-season rushing title, the Eagles decided to rest their starters in their finale against Barkley's former team, the Giants.
Eagles GM Howie Roseman thinks it was the best season a running back has ever had. In fact, he took that a step further.
"In my opinion," Roseman said, "The best season for any skill position player in NFL history."
Along the way, Barkley racked up 351.3 fantasy points, the second most among all running backs. His 22 points per game, however, were the most in the league.
The question is, can he repeat it? And is he worth the first or second pick overall to find out?
Barkley had 482 touches last season. As ESPN.com's Mike Clay noted, that's the most a running back has handled since DeMarco Murray had 497 in 2014. All told, 15 running backs have hit 400 touches (including the playoffs), and only five of those repeated as top-5 fantasy producers the following year . . .
CONTINUED...