Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | San Francisco | -13.5 | 51.5 | 32.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Washington | Carolina | -4.5 | 51 | 27.75 | +++ | ++ | |
| Dallas | Tampa Bay | -7 | 46 | 26.5 | ++ | +++ | |
| Seattle | Los Angeles | -14.5 | 38.5 | 26.5 | ++ | +++ | +++ |
| Oakland | San Diego | -2.5 | 50 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Arizona | New Orleans | -2.5 | 50 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Buffalo | Cleveland | -10 | 42.5 | 26.25 | ++ | +++ | +++ |
| Green Bay | Chicago | -6.5 | 42.5 | 24.5 | + | + | ++ |
| Minnesota | Indianapolis | -4 | 44.5 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| Kansas City | Tennessee | -5.5 | 43 | 24.25 | + | + | + |
| New Orleans | Arizona | 2.5 | 50 | 23.75 | |||
| San Diego | Oakland | 2.5 | 50 | 23.75 | |||
| New England | Denver | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
| Baltimore | Philadelphia | -6 | 41.5 | 23.75 | + | ++ | |
| Carolina | Washington | 4.5 | 51 | 23.25 | |||
| NY Giants | Detroit | -4.5 | 41.5 | 23 | + | ||
| Houston | Jacksonville | -6 | 39 | 22.5 | + | +++ | |
| Miami | NY Jets | -2.5 | 38.5 | 20.5 | ++ | ||
| Indianapolis | Minnesota | 4 | 44.5 | 20.25 | |||
| Denver | New England | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Dallas | 7 | 46 | 19.5 | |||
| San Francisco | Atlanta | 13.5 | 51.5 | 19 | |||
| Tennessee | Kansas City | 5.5 | 43 | 18.75 | |||
| Detroit | NY Giants | 4.5 | 41.5 | 18.5 | |||
| Chicago | Green Bay | 6.5 | 42.5 | 18 | |||
| NY Jets | Miami | 2.5 | 38.5 | 18 | |||
| Philadelphia | Baltimore | 6 | 41.5 | 17.75 | |||
| Jacksonville | Houston | 6 | 39 | 16.5 | |||
| Cleveland | Buffalo | 10 | 42.5 | 16.25 | |||
| Los Angeles | Seattle | 14.5 | 38.5 | 12 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Kirk Cousins (Redskins)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks), LeSean McCoy (Bills)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Taylor Gabriel (Falcons), DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins)
- Defense: Seahawks, Bills, Texans
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Derek Carr (Raiders), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Tyrod Taylor (Bills)
- Running Back: Rob Kelley (Redskins), Latavius Murray (Raiders), David Johnson (Cardinals),
- Receivers: Dez Bryant/Cole Beasley/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Tyler Lockett/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Seth Roberts (Raiders), Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd/J.J. Nelson/Jermaine Gresham (Cardinals), Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods/Charles Clay (Bills)
- Defense: Packers, Ravens, Dolphins
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Sam Bradford (Vikings), Alex Smith (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Christine Michael/Ty Montgomery (Packers), Jerick McKinnon/Matt Asiata (Vikings), Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Terrance West/Kenneth Dixon (Ravens), Lamar Miller (Texans)
- Receivers: Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Randall Cobb (Packers), Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Jeremy Maclin/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Giants, Chiefs, Falcons