Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | NY Jets | -16.5 | 43.5 | 30 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Oakland | Indianapolis | -3.5 | 53 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -3 | 52.5 | 27.75 | +++ | ++ | |
| Atlanta | Carolina | -2.5 | 51.5 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
| Dallas | Detroit | -7 | 44.5 | 25.75 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Seattle | Arizona | -8 | 43 | 25.5 | ++ | ++ | ++ |
| Green Bay | Minnesota | -7 | 43 | 25 | + | ++ | + |
| Washington | Chicago | -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 3 | 52.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| San Diego | Cleveland | -6 | 43.5 | 24.75 | + | ++ | + |
| Indianapolis | Oakland | 3.5 | 53 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | -5 | 44.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| Carolina | Atlanta | 2.5 | 51.5 | 24.5 | + | + | |
| Tennessee | Jacksonville | -5 | 43.5 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| Buffalo | Miami | -3.5 | 41.5 | 22.5 | |||
| NY Giants | Philadelphia | -3 | 41.5 | 22.25 | |||
| Chicago | Washington | 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | |||
| Los Angeles | San Francisco | -3.5 | 40 | 21.75 | + | ||
| Houston | Cincinnati | -1 | 41 | 21 | |||
| Kansas City | Denver | -3.5 | 38 | 20.75 | ++ | ||
| Cincinnati | Houston | 1 | 41 | 20 | |||
| Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 5 | 44.5 | 19.75 | |||
| Philadelphia | NY Giants | 3 | 41.5 | 19.25 | |||
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | 5 | 43.5 | 19.25 | |||
| Miami | Buffalo | 3.5 | 41.5 | 19 | |||
| Detroit | Dallas | 7 | 44.5 | 18.75 | |||
| Cleveland | San Diego | 6 | 43.5 | 18.75 | |||
| San Francisco | Los Angeles | 3.5 | 40 | 18.25 | |||
| Minnesota | Green Bay | 7 | 43 | 18 | |||
| Arizona | Seattle | 8 | 43 | 17.5 | |||
| Denver | Kansas City | 3.5 | 38 | 17.25 | |||
| NY Jets | New England | 16.5 | 43.5 | 13.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Derek Carr (Raiders)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Latavius Murray (Raiders), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Malcolm Mitchell/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Seth Roberts (Raiders)
- Defense: Patriots
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower (Saints), Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Kenneth Farrow/Ronnie Hillman (Chargers)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Taylor Gabriel (Falcons), Dez Bryant/Cole Beasley/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Tyler Lockett/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd/J.J. Nelson/Jermaine Gresham (Cardinals), Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods/Charles Clay (Bills)
- Defense: Chiefs, Seahawks
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Cam Newton (Panthers), Marcus Mariota (Titans)
- Running Back: Rob Kelley (Redskins), Doug Martin (Buccaneers), Frank Gore (Colts), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), DeMarco Murray (Titans)
- Receivers: Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Randall Cobb (Packers), DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins), Mike Evans/Adam Humphries/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Tyrell Williams/Dontrelle Inman/Antonio Gates/Hunter Henry (Chargers), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Phillip Dorsett/Jack Doyle (Colts), Antonio Brown/Eli Rogers/Ladarius Green (Steelers), Kelvin Benjamin/Ted Ginn Jr/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Rishard Matthews/Tajae Sharpe/Delanie Walker (Titans)
- Defense: Packers, Rams, Chargers, Cowboys
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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