Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3 | 28.25 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -7.5 | 27.5 | 47.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Indianapolis | San Diego | -3 | 27.25 | 51.5 | +++ | ++ | |
| Dallas | Chicago | -7.5 | 26 | 44.5 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| Miami | Cleveland | -9.5 | 25.75 | 42 | + | +++ | +++ |
| Arizona | Buffalo | -4 | 25.5 | 47 | + | + | |
| NY Giants | Washington | -4.5 | 25.25 | 46 | + | + | |
| Atlanta | New Orleans | 3 | 25.25 | 53.5 | + | + | |
| Carolina | Minnesota | -7 | 25 | 43 | + | ++ | ++ |
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 24.75 | 46 | + | + | |
| Seattle | San Francisco | -9 | 24.5 | 40 | + | +++ | |
| San Diego | Indianapolis | 3 | 24.25 | 51.5 | |||
| Baltimore | Jacksonville | -1 | 24 | 47 | |||
| Tennessee | Oakland | -1.5 | 24 | 46.5 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Los Angeles | -5.5 | 23.75 | 42 | + | ++ | |
| Jacksonville | Baltimore | 1 | 23 | 47 | |||
| Kansas City | NY Jets | -3 | 22.75 | 42.5 | + | ||
| Oakland | Tennessee | 1.5 | 22.5 | 46.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | Denver | -4 | 22.5 | 41 | ++ | ||
| Buffalo | Arizona | 4 | 21.5 | 47 | |||
| Philadelphia | Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 21.25 | 46 | |||
| Washington | NY Giants | 4.5 | 20.75 | 46 | |||
| Houston | New England | -1 | 20.75 | 40.5 | + | ||
| Detroit | Green Bay | 7.5 | 20 | 47.5 | + | ||
| New England | Houston | 1 | 19.75 | 40.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Kansas City | 3 | 19.75 | 42.5 | |||
| Chicago | Dallas | 7.5 | 18.5 | 44.5 | |||
| Denver | Cincinnati | 4 | 18.5 | 41 | |||
| Los Angeles | Tampa Bay | 5.5 | 18.25 | 42 | |||
| Minnesota | Carolina | 7 | 18 | 43 | |||
| Cleveland | Miami | 9.5 | 16.25 | 42 | |||
| San Francisco | Seattle | 9 | 15.5 | 40 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Andrew Luck (Colts)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram II (Saints), Eddie Lacy (Packers), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Jay Ajayi/Arian Foster (Dolphins)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead IV/Michael Thomas (Saints), Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Jared Cook (Packers), T.Y. Hilton/Phillip Dorsett/Dwayne Allen (Colts)
- Defense: Miami, Seattle
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Frank Gore (Colts), Fozzy Whittaker/Cameron Artis-Payne (Panthers)
- Receivers: Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley (Cowboys) Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks)
- Defense: Dallas, Carolina, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Eli Manning (Giants), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Cam Newton (Panthers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Matthew Stafford (Lions)
- Running Back: David Johnson (Cardinals), Rashad Jennings/Shane Vereen (Giants), Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), DeAngelo Williams (Steelers), Thomas Rawls/Christine Michael (Seahawks), Charles Sims (Buccaneers)
- Receivers: Jarvis Landry/DeVante Parker/Kenny Stills (Dolphins), Larry Fitzgerald/Malcom Floyd/John Brown (Cardinals), Odell Beckham Jr Jr./Sterling Shepard/Victor Cruz (Giants), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Jacob Tamme (Falcons), Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Antonio Brown/Markus Wheaton/Jesse James (Steelers), Golden Tate/Marvin Jones Jr/Anquan Boldin (Lions)
- Defense: Kansas City, Houston