Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3 | 28.25 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -7.5 | 27.5 | 47.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Indianapolis | San Diego | -3 | 27.25 | 51.5 | +++ | ++ | |
| Dallas | Chicago | -7.5 | 26 | 44.5 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| Miami | Cleveland | -9.5 | 25.75 | 42 | + | +++ | +++ |
| Arizona | Buffalo | -4 | 25.5 | 47 | + | + | |
| NY Giants | Washington | -4.5 | 25.25 | 46 | + | + | |
| Atlanta | New Orleans | 3 | 25.25 | 53.5 | + | + | |
| Carolina | Minnesota | -7 | 25 | 43 | + | ++ | ++ |
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 24.75 | 46 | + | + | |
| Seattle | San Francisco | -9 | 24.5 | 40 | + | +++ | |
| San Diego | Indianapolis | 3 | 24.25 | 51.5 | |||
| Baltimore | Jacksonville | -1 | 24 | 47 | |||
| Tennessee | Oakland | -1.5 | 24 | 46.5 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Los Angeles | -5.5 | 23.75 | 42 | + | ++ | |
| Jacksonville | Baltimore | 1 | 23 | 47 | |||
| Kansas City | NY Jets | -3 | 22.75 | 42.5 | + | ||
| Oakland | Tennessee | 1.5 | 22.5 | 46.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | Denver | -4 | 22.5 | 41 | ++ | ||
| Buffalo | Arizona | 4 | 21.5 | 47 | |||
| Philadelphia | Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 21.25 | 46 | |||
| Washington | NY Giants | 4.5 | 20.75 | 46 | |||
| Houston | New England | -1 | 20.75 | 40.5 | + | ||
| Detroit | Green Bay | 7.5 | 20 | 47.5 | + | ||
| New England | Houston | 1 | 19.75 | 40.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Kansas City | 3 | 19.75 | 42.5 | |||
| Chicago | Dallas | 7.5 | 18.5 | 44.5 | |||
| Denver | Cincinnati | 4 | 18.5 | 41 | |||
| Los Angeles | Tampa Bay | 5.5 | 18.25 | 42 | |||
| Minnesota | Carolina | 7 | 18 | 43 | |||
| Cleveland | Miami | 9.5 | 16.25 | 42 | |||
| San Francisco | Seattle | 9 | 15.5 | 40 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Andrew Luck (Colts)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram (Saints), Eddie Lacy (Packers), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Jay Ajayi/Arian Foster (Dolphins)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Michael Thomas (Saints), Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Jared Cook (Packers), T.Y. Hilton/Phillip Dorsett/Dwayne Allen (Colts)
- Defense: Miami, Seattle
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Frank Gore (Colts), Fozzy Whittaker/Cameron Artis-Payne (Panthers)
- Receivers: Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley (Cowboys) Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks)
- Defense: Dallas, Carolina, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Eli Manning (Giants), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Cam Newton (Panthers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Matthew Stafford (Lions)
- Running Back: David Johnson (Cardinals), Rashad Jennings/Shane Vereen (Giants), Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), DeAngelo Williams (Steelers), Thomas Rawls/Christine Michael (Seahawks), Charles Sims (Buccaneers)
- Receivers: Jarvis Landry/DeVante Parker/Kenny Stills (Dolphins), Larry Fitzgerald/Malcom Floyd/John Brown (Cardinals), Odell Beckham Jr/Sterling Shepard/Victor Cruz (Giants), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Jacob Tamme (Falcons), Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Antonio Brown/Markus Wheaton/Jesse James (Steelers), Golden Tate/Marvin Jones/Anquan Boldin (Lions)
- Defense: Kansas City, Houston
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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Cole Beasley
Odell Beckham Jr
Antonio Brown
John Brown
Randall Cobb
Tevin Coleman
Brandin Cooks
Jared Cook
Phillip Dorsett
Ezekiel Elliott
Devonta Freeman
T.Y. Hilton
Mark Ingram II
Jesse James
David Johnson
Julio Jones
Marvin Jones Jr
Jarvis Landry
Tyler Lockett
Cam Newton
DeVante Parker
Dak Prescott
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Mohamed Sanu
Sterling Shepard
Willie Snead IV
Matthew Stafford
Kenny Stills
Ryan Tannehill
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
