Vegas Value Chart: Week 4

John Lee Published 09/27/2016

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.

Team	Opponent	Odds	Team Total	Game Total	Passing	Running	Team Defense
San Diego	New Orleans	-3.5	28.5	53.5	+++	+++
Carolina	Atlanta	-4	27	50	+++	++
Washington	Cleveland	-7.5	26.5	45.5	++	+++	++
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	-3	26.25	49.5	++	++
Pittsburgh	Kansas City	-5.5	26.25	47	++	+++
Cincinnati	Miami	-7	25.75	44.5	++	++	++
Baltimore	Oakland	-4	25.25	46.5	++	++
Arizona	Los Angeles	-7.5	25.25	43	+	+++	+++
New Orleans	San Diego	3.5	25	53.5	+
Detroit	Chicago	-3	24.75	46.5	+	+
Dallas	San Francisco	-3	24.5	46	+	+
New England	Buffalo	-5.5	24.25	43		+	++
Minnesota	NY Giants	-4.5	24	43.5		+	+
Denver	Tampa Bay	-3	23.5	44
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	3	23.25	49.5
Houston	Tennesee	-5.5	23	40.5		+	+++
Atlanta	Carolina	4	23	50
Chicago	Detroit	3	21.75	46.5
San Francisco	Dallas	3	21.5	46
Oakland	Baltimore	4	21.25	46.5
Kansas City	Pittsburgh	5.5	20.75	47
Tampa Bay	Denver	3	20.5	44
Seattle	NY Jets	-1	20	39			++
NY Giants	Minnesota	4.5	19.5	43.5
Cleveland	Washington	7.5	19	45.5
NY Jets	Seattle	1	19	39
Buffalo	New England	5.5	18.75	43
Miami	Cincinnati	7	18.75	44.5
Los Angeles	Arizona	7.5	17.75	43
Tennesee	Houston	5.5	17.5	40.5

SUMMARY

3-STARS

Quarterback: Philip Rivers (Chargers), Cam Newton (Panthers)
Running Back: Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Matt Jones/Chris Thompson (Redskins), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), David Johnson (Cardinals)
Receivers: Travis Benjamin/Tyrell Williams/Hunter Henry (Chargers), Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess/Greg Olsen (Panthers)
Defense: Arizona, Houston