Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 10/21 @ 7 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Cincinnati | -6 | 31.75 | 57.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | San Francisco | -9 | 30.5 | 52 | +++ | +++ | |
| Atlanta | NY Giants | -4 | 28.75 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Tampa Bay | Cleveland | -3.5 | 27.75 | 52 | ++ | ++ | |
| Baltimore | New Orleans | -2.5 | 25.75 | 49 | + | + | |
| Cincinnati | Kansas City | 6 | 25.75 | 57.5 | + | + | |
| LA Chargers | Tennessee | -6.5 | 25.75 | 45 | + | + | + |
| New England | Chicago | -2 | 25.25 | 48.5 | + | + | |
| Indianapolis | Buffalo | -7 | 25 | 43 | + | ++ | ++ |
| Philadelphia | Carolina | -5 | 25 | 45 | + | + | |
| NY Giants | Atlanta | 4 | 24.75 | 53.5 | + | + | |
| Detroit | Miami | -3 | 24.75 | 46.5 | + | + | |
| Minnesota | NY Jets | -3.5 | 24.5 | 45.5 | + | + | |
| Cleveland | Tampa Bay | 3.5 | 24.25 | 52 | + | + | |
| New Orleans | Baltimore | 2.5 | 23.25 | 49 | |||
| Chicago | New England | 2 | 23.25 | 48.5 | |||
| Jacksonville | Houston | -4 | 22.75 | 41.5 | + | ||
| Miami | Detroit | 3 | 21.75 | 46.5 | |||
| Denver | Arizona | -1 | 21.75 | 42.5 | |||
| San Francisco | LA Rams | 9 | 21.5 | 52 | |||
| Dallas | Washington | -1 | 21.25 | 41.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Minnesota | 3.5 | 21 | 45.5 | |||
| Arizona | Denver | 1 | 20.75 | 42.5 | |||
| Washington | Dallas | 1 | 20.25 | 41.5 | |||
| Carolina | Philadelphia | 5 | 20 | 45 | |||
| Tennessee | LA Chargers | 6.5 | 19.25 | 45 | |||
| Houston | Jacksonville | 4 | 18.75 | 41.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Indianapolis | 7 | 18 | 43 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II II (Chiefs), Jared Goff (Rams), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Todd Gurley (Rams), Tevin Coleman/Ito Smith (Falcons)
- Receivers: Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds (Rams), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers),
- Running Back: Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Alex Collins (Ravens), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Marlon Mack (Colts)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Colts
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Joe Flacco (Ravens), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Tom Brady (Patriots), Andrew Luck (Colts), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Eli Manning (Giants), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Baker Mayfield (Browns)
- Running Back: Alex Collins (Ravens), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Marlon Mack (Colts), Corey Clement/Wendell Smallwood (Eagles), Saquon Barkley (Giants), Kerryon Johnson (Lions), Latavius Murray (Vikings), Nick Chubb/Duke Johnson Jr Jr. (Browns)
- Receivers: Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Willie Snead (Ravens), A.J. Green/Tyler Boyd/John Ross (Bengals), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Tyrell Williams (Chargers),
- Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Josh Gordon (Patriots), Ryan Grant/Chester Rogers/Eric Ebron (Colts), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Odell Beckham Jr/Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram (Giants), Marvin Jones/Kenny Golladay/Golden Tate (Lions), Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Jarvis Landry/Antonio Callaway/Damion Ratley/David Njoku (Browns)
- Defense: Jaguars, Chargers
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags
Daily FF
DraftKings
FanDuel
Nelson Agholor
Keenan Allen
Peyton Barber
Saquon Barkley
Odell Beckham Jr
Tyler Boyd
Tom Brady
Cameron Brate
John Brown
Antonio Callaway
Nick Chubb
Corey Clement
Tevin Coleman
Alex Collins
Brandin Cooks
Kirk Cousins
Andy Dalton
Stefon Diggs
Eric Ebron
Austin Ekeler
Evan Engram
Zach Ertz
Mike Evans
Joe Flacco
Jared Goff
Kenny Golladay
Josh Gordon
A.J. Green
Tyreek Hill
Chris Hogan
Austin Hooper
Kareem Hunt
DeSean Jackson
Duke Johnson Jr
Kerryon Johnson
Julio Jones
Marvin Jones Jr
Travis Kelce
Jarvis Landry
Marlon Mack
Patrick Mahomes II
Baker Mayfield
Sony Michel
Joe Mixon
Latavius Murray
David Njoku
Josh Reynolds
Calvin Ridley
Chester Rogers
John Ross
Kyle Rudolph
Matt Ryan
Mohamed Sanu
Sterling Shepard
Wendell Smallwood
Ito Smith
Willie Snead IV
Matthew Stafford
Adam Thielen
Sammy Watkins
Carson Wentz
James White
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Jameis Winston
Robert Woods