Housekeeping
Before we start, you may be thinking, this is not David Dodds writing this article. I have the honor and privilege of taking this over article after David wrote it wonderfully the past several seasons. David is moving over to cover Fantasy Draft as that is where a majority of his play will be this season with their Rake Free contests. I have big shoes to fill, and please don’t hesitate to reach out if there are any changes you would like to see.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, I have been the DFS content manager for Footballguys for the past three seasons, and during that time along with my other responsibilities ran a blog in which I broke down my lineups and lineup strategy for that given week. For those who followed the blog, we are consolidating the blog into this article, as the blog was a free piece that when we assessed our content offerings, we felt we were giving away too much for free. The way that this article is going to be structured will be very similar to the blog format which was an overview on general thoughts of the slate along with my favorite lineup and lineup strategy for cash games.
Enough of the housekeeping, let’s jump into Week 1.
Situations that stand out to this week on the main slate.
- Kansas City (vs Jax) – 27.75 points
- Philadelphia (vs Wash) – 27.5 points
- Los Angeles Rams (vs Car) - 26.00 points
- Jacksonville (vs KC) – 24.25 points
- Los Angeles Chargers (vs IND) – 25.5 points
- Seattle (vs Cin) - 26.50 points
Bankroll Strategy-
We are all excited that the NFL is back, however let’s pump the breaks here. Week 1 is by far the least predictable week of any excluding Week 17. We think we know how these teams are going to perform, but the reality is that we are not all Dennis Green and sometimes teams are not who we thought they were. The reality is be careful with Week 1. At the very least treat it as you would Week 8 in terms of bankroll. Far too often, we have seen scenarios where people go all in Week 1 due to the sheer excitement of the NFL being back.
Cash Game Strategy Week 1
Week 1 is different than any other week of the season. We think we know what will happen as we have been studying these games for much longer than any other week of the season, but the reality is that there is a lot of uncertainty as we head into 2019. What we think we know, may not always be the case. In cash games for Week 1, taking the approach of avoiding the situations in which we think we know what will happen, or betting on unproven players to take a giant leap forward is not always advisable.. While inevitably some of these situations will play out the way that we think that they will play out, the reality is that a lot of them will not. In cash games, reducing risk in your lineup is always optimal.
Some of the situations to be cautious with are below:
- Will Chris Godwin take the next step forward in his career?
- Will Miles Sanders have a significant role in Philadelphia?
- Will Dede Westbrook take a step forward?
- What will the Browns offense be under Freddie Kitchens, they have a ton of talent, but will it take them a game to figure out how to incorporate Beckham with the hip injury?
- Derius Guice, this one could be a cautious situation, but we may have some clarity on it before game time. Coach Jay Gruden says the offense is going to run through Guice which on the surface seems to be coach speak. However, there was talk this week on the possibility that Adrian Peterson won’t dress which that would be huge for Guice.
Thoughts Heading Into the Slate
Spend Down at Defense
One of the changes FanDuel made last season was they lowered the salary floor of defenses to $3,000 instead of previously being at $4,000. This ultimately created an incentive to spend less on a defense as a $2,000 savings is a tremendous way to build a cash game lineup.
Spending down at the defense position this week with either Miami or Tampa Bay in hot environments which could lead to slower paced games. If you’re looking to spend up, do it in a GPP, as the salary relief you’ll get with one of the Miami or Tampa Bay defenses should pay dividends in allowing you to spend up at other positions with more high-quality players.
Quarterback Thoughts
In cash games, one way to approach them is to find the value quarterbacks who are going to exceed their salary. This allows you to get the most stud players at the running back and wide receiver position as possible ultimately raising your floor and not having to rely on cheap wide receivers who are highly volatile. This week, the two quarterbacks we are looking at are below. If you can find the salary, Patrick Mahomes II is also in a tremendous spot, but spending down should allow you to enhance the rest of your team.
Wentz is the top cash game quarterback based on price and matchup. Fabian Moreau who plays opposite of Josh Norman is out for this game which is a huge issue for the Redskins secondary as it forces Greg Stroman and Jimmy Moreland both 7th round picks to see significant action in this game. Wentz has all the tools to have an MVP caliber season similar to the one he had in 2017 prior to the injury. With a lot of question marks still surrounding the Eagles running game with Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard splitting the backfield, expect the Eagles to rely heavily on Wentz this week.
On FanDuel this week at just $6,500, Nick Foles is a tremendous value. The only question you have to ask yourself is whether his floor is high enough to be cash game viable. The matchup is a great one as the game is the highest projected total on the slate, and the Jaguars will likely be forced to throw to keep up with the Chiefs offense. One major issue for the Jaguars is left tackle Cam Robinson will likely miss this game making the offensive line and blocking Frank Clark a concern. While you could go with this option, it is probably best in a Cash + lineup which are your 3 man, 5 man, small GPP type lineups.
Running Back Thoughts
This week, is all about finding running backs who are going to get guaranteed touches in good matchups. Players such as Nick Chubb, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Chris Carson should make up the core of your lineups, with potentially sprinkling in Kerryon Johnson and Austin Ekeler who are a little bit more volatile, but do provide a little bit of salary relief. Carson at $6,600 is the top play on the slate as it was just a mis-price by FanDuel and should be the first player you lock in this week.
Wide Receiver Thoughts
This week, in cash games it is either spending all the way up, or going with a cheaper receiver who is the number one receiver in bad offenses. The two players who stand out in this regard are Dede Westbrook and Sterling Shepard. Both players are not on great offenses, but they have limited options around them and the offenses will be forced to move the ball in the air as they will be behind for a majority of the game.
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) - CASH (PROJECTED POINTS = 127.24)
- QB Carson Wentz, PHI - $7,600
- RB Nick Chubb, CLE- $7,400
- RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR- $8,700
- WR Tyler Boyd CIN - $6,900
- WR Adam Thielen, MIN- $7,400
- WR Mike Evans, TB- $7,900
- TE Vernon Davis, $4,000 (Assuming Jordan Reed is out)
- Flex RB Chris Carson SEA- $6,600
- TD Miami Dolphins- $3,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash (Projected Points = 128.60)
- QB Carson Wentz, PHI - $6,700
- RB Nick Chubb, Min- $7,400
- RB Austin Ekeler, CAR- $6,400
- WR Dede Westbrook Jax- $5,900
- WR Adam Thielen, MIN- $7,400
- WR Mike Evans, $7,900
- TE Travis Kelce, KC- $7,800
- Flex RB Chris Carson SEA- $6,600
- TD Miami Dolphins- $3,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ Jacksonville Stack (PROJECTED POINTS = 126.9)
- QB Nick Foles, Jax- $6,500
- RB Nick Chubb, CLE- $7,400
- RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR- $8,900
- WR Dede Westbrook, Jax- $5,900
- WR Sterling Shepard, NYG- $6,000
- WR Mike Evans- $7,900
- TE Travis Kelce, KC- $7,800
- Flex RB Chris Carson, SEA- $6,600
- TD Miami Dolphins- $3,000
