Cracking FanDuel Week 9

Sunday Morning Update

Week 8 Recap- Right Analysis, Wrong Choices- 1-5-2

The fade of Zay Flowers could not have been a better decision. The problem was that he was 75% rostered on DraftKings, yet only ended up being 40% rostered on FanDuel. The issue for Week 8 was two-fold. First, Bijan Robinson and Chris Godwin Jr. had miserable games, with Godwin not catching a pass as Tampa Bay did not complete a pass in their 16-0 win against Atlanta. The second issue was Braelon Allen. Allen was the player who you essentially had to have in order to win. Allen was 75% rostered, and in hindsight it was the right play as Las Vegas has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and Allen has been tremendous, topping 100 yards in three of his last four games.

It's absolutely crazy the generational run that the chalk has had on FanDuel this season. You've essentially had to be perfect with nailing the right plays because there is so much overlap. And those right plays often have had monster games, such as Justin Jefferson earlier this year, Jahmyr Gibbs multiple times, and this week was Braelon Allen. This will change. We are literally talking about choices that have nearly identical props, or in most cases favorable in my position, as well as favorable touchdown odds. I'm riding this out, as frustrating as it has been this season. 

I just want to say that the love I have for everyone reading this is tremendous. We continue to see a significant amount of people click on this article every single week, and despite the rough year, it continues to be one of the most popular FanDuel articles across all Fantasy Football sites, and our most popular feature on Footballguys DFS. 

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,400
• RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $8,800
• RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE, $6,500
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $7,100
• WR Chris Godwin Jr., TBB, $5,400
• WR Germie Bernard, PIT, $5,000
• TE Brenton Strange, JAX, $5,100
• Flex RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $9,800
• TD Detroit, $3,400

Injury Creates Opportunity

A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson are both out for New England. Brown misses his second straight game with ankle and knee injuries, and Henderson is out with an illness after not practicing all week. Rhamondre Stevenson becomes the clear lead back. He played 76% of the snaps last week and has caught all eight of his targets over the last two games, so the receiving role he gets without Henderson makes him a strong cash option. Hunter Henry is questionable with a foot injury, but his limited practice on Friday was a positive sign. If he sits, rookie Eli Raridon steps in at tight end. DeMario Douglas becomes Drake Maye’s top receiver. The one to watch on Saturday is Mack Hollins, who led the team with 15 receptions and 209 yards over the first four weeks. He has to be activated off IR by 4 PM Saturday to play. This is a difficult matchup, as Green Bay ranks seventh in defensive EPA.

Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. are out again for San Francisco, but help is on the way. Demarcus Robinson is back from IR, and Christian Kirk could make his 49ers debut. The bigger question is Christian McCaffrey. He missed Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring injury and was limited Thursday, but he practiced Friday and appears to be trending in the right direction. If he plays, this is about as good as it gets. The 49ers are 10-point favorites against a Raiders defense that has allowed 30+ points in each of its last five games. If he can’t go, rookie Kaelon Black would be an interesting cheap option after running 12 times for 63 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta two weeks ago.

Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion after missing practice all week. That puts Adonai Mitchell and rookie Omar Cooper Jr. at the top of the Jets’ receiving group. Breece Hall is back from his quad injury, but expect a split with Braelon Allen, which makes both of them hard to trust. This is also a tough spot, as the Jets are 9.5-point underdogs in Kansas City, where they’re likely to be throwing from behind.

Cam Skattebo is doubtful with a hamstring injury, and with Tyrone Tracy Jr. on IR, Devin Singletary is in line for close to a full workload. That’s a nice opportunity for a cheap running back on a Giants team that is somehow a 3-point road favorite in Philadelphia. The Eagles are banged up. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are both out, which leaves Makai Lemon as the top receiver with Hollywood Brown and Darius Cooper in the mix. Tanner McKee is questionable with a rib injury, and Saquon Barkley was limited Friday. The more we learn about Philadelphia’s injuries, the better Singletary looks.

Sam Darnold is out with a quad injury, so Drew Lock gets the start against Arizona. Lock has had success against this defense before, throwing for 235 yards and three touchdowns earlier this season, and 43.8% of his passes in that game went to his top receiver. Jaxon Smith-Njigba gets a bump with Lock under center, and Cooper Kupp is a cheaper way to target a Cardinals defense tied for the most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. On the other side, Bam Knight is out with a concussion and Jeremiyah Love is still on IR, so Tyler Allgeier should get almost all of the work. Arizona is an 8.5-point underdog, though, so the game script could cut into his carries.

David Montgomery is out again with the groin injury and hasn’t played since Week 5. Woody Marks stays in the lead role in a game where Houston is a 6-point favorite against the Chargers. Los Angeles may also be without David Njoku, who is doubtful with a fibula injury, and rookie receiver Brenen Thompson, who is doubtful after missing practice all week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable after being limited all week with a rib injury. The bigger story in this game is Detroit’s defense. Jack Campbell, Kerby Joseph, D.J. Reed, and D.J. Wonnum are all out, which takes away their best linebacker, their best safety, a starting corner, and a starting edge rusher. Detroit is still a 6.5-point favorite, but Miami’s passing game becomes a lot more interesting than the spread suggests. Both Dolphins running backs, Jaylen Wright and Kaytron Allen, are questionable with quad injuries.

George Pickens is questionable with a hamstring injury, and Jake Ferguson is questionable with an ankle injury. Both were limited Friday. Pickens looks likely to play, but Ferguson could be a game-time decision in a 1 PM game. KaVontae Turpin is out with a rib injury, which should give Ryan Flournoy more snaps. The Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites against an Indianapolis defense that is without linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither and cornerback Justin Walley.

Deshaun Watson has been cleared from concussion protocol as of Saturday, but it's unclear who will start for Cleveland, although it is leaning towards Shedeur Sanders. Harold Fannin Jr. is playing through his groin injury and remains a top tight end option. KC Concepcion Jr. and Denzel Boston would also benefit from Sanders under center, though Boston was limited with a calf injury. For the Saints, Jordyn Tyson is questionable with a hamstring injury and could make his NFL debut. If he sits again, Devaughn Vele is a cheap full-PPR option.

Washington’s receiver room is thin. Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown are both out, and Terry McLaurin is already out for the season. That leaves Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams as Jayden Daniels’ top two receivers. Williams had seven targets last week against Philadelphia, catching five for 54 yards. The matchup is better than you might think. The Rams lost cornerback Jaylen Watson for the season to a shoulder injury, and Trent McDuffie is questionable after missing every practice. On the Rams’ side, Terrance Ferguson was ruled out after hurting his hamstring in Friday’s practice, and Colby Parkinson is questionable with a rib injury. If Parkinson sits, Tyler Higbee becomes a cheap tight end option.

Christian Watson is playing through a broken rib with protective padding. He has no injury designation, but one big hit could end his day early. Green Bay is also without Micah Parsons, who has started practicing again but isn’t expected back until around Thanksgiving.

Week 9 Strategy The Case Against Jahmyr Gibbs