Cracking DraftKings

1

Patrick Mahomes II

20.2

$6,100

Mahomes is cheaper than Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott on DraftKings despite one of the best spots on the slate. He threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against a tough Denver defense last week, and he has averaged 23 fantasy points per game in the contests where Rashee Rice plays the whole way. The Jets have allowed 23-plus fantasy points to three straight quarterbacks and 14 touchdown passes against one interception, and Kansas City is a big home favorite with one of the highest team totals of the week. At $6,100, he is a bargain.

2

Shedeur Sanders

15.4

$4,000

Deshaun Watson is in the concussion protocol, so Sanders makes his first start of the season against the Saints. He went 3-4 as a starter late last season, completing 56.6% of his passes for 1,400 yards with a 7:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he averaged 11.9 fantasy points per start. That is not a high bar, but at $4,000 he only needs about 12 points to pay off, and New Orleans ranks 25th in yards per attempt allowed and 29th in points allowed. He frees up enough salary to fit almost any combination of stars, and KC Concepcion Jr. gives him a target who has been drawing volume.

3

Brock Purdy

21.7

$6,800

Purdy has thrown 15 touchdowns against four interceptions and completed 69% of his passes, and the 49ers are coming off a bye as one of the biggest favorites on the slate. The Raiders have allowed 30 or more points in five straight games, including 45 in one of them. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr. and Christian Kirk have all been ruled out, which thins out the receiving corps, but it also funnels the passing game to Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, so a Purdy-Kittle or Purdy-McCaffrey stack is easy to build.

4

Malik Willis

19.0

$5,100

Willis is the cheapest way into the best quarterback matchup on the slate. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and 18 touchdown passes in seven games, with four different quarterbacks throwing three or more scores against them. Willis has thrown two touchdowns in each of his last two games and has three rushing touchdowns on the season, which gives him a floor most quarterbacks at this price don’t have. With Miami a touchdown underdog, he should be throwing plenty.

5

Dak Prescott

20.9

$6,500

Prescott has thrown at least one touchdown pass in all eight games and has accounted for 15 total touchdowns, 62.5% of Dallas’ offensive scores. He threw three touchdowns against Philadelphia in Week 7 and added a rushing score against Arizona last week. The Colts have allowed 14 passing touchdowns, which ranks 23rd, and this game has one of the highest totals on the slate. The concern is that Indianapolis has held most quarterbacks under 240 yards, so his upside depends on touchdowns, and CeeDee Lamb’s red-zone role makes that a realistic path.

1

Christian McCaffrey

23.7

$8,000

McCaffrey is $1,000 cheaper than Ken Walker III and $2,000 cheaper than Jahmyr Gibbs, and his role this week may be the best of the three. He is off the injury report after a mild hamstring strain, and the 49ers are coming off a bye. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr. and Christian Kirk have all been ruled out, so he and George Kittle are about all that’s left in the passing game. He has at least three catches in every game this season, which matters with full PPR scoring, and San Francisco is a big home favorite against a Raiders team that has allowed 30-plus points in five straight games.

2

Jahmyr Gibbs

27.5

$10,000

Gibbs has the highest projection on the slate at any position. He ran 23 times for 153 yards against Minnesota last week, his most efficient game of the season against the best defense in the league. Now he gets a Miami defense that has allowed 24-plus points in three straight games, and Detroit is a seven-point favorite in a game with a total around 50. He is the most expensive player on the slate, but he is one of the few players with a realistic path to 35-plus points with the 100-yard bonus.

3

Jonah Coleman

18.9

$5,300

Coleman took over the Denver backfield last week, playing 68% of the snaps and out-touching J.K. Dobbins 15-7. He turned that into 104 scrimmage yards, including a 51-yard catch that set up his own game-winning touchdown, and he was the only Broncos back to see a target. He leads all qualifying backs in explosive run rate, and Carolina has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs and 15-plus PPR points to backs in four straight games. He has the best projected points per dollar of any back in this group.

4

Ken Walker III

24.1

$9,000

Walker has been held to 3.0 yards per carry over the last two games against Seattle and Denver, two of the best defenses in the league, but the workload hasn’t gone anywhere. He handled 21 of Kansas City’s 24 carries last week and has taken 88% of the team’s carries this season. The Jets rank 21st against the run, and the Chiefs are big home favorites, which should mean a heavy second-half workload.

5

Devin Singletary

13.0

$4,600

Cam Skattebo is doubtful with a hamstring injury, Tyrone Tracy Jr. is on injured reserve and Najee Harris was released, so Singletary is the last back standing in New York. He won the Week 7 game with a 30-yard overtime touchdown, and the Eagles rank 28th in rushing yards allowed and have given up more than 100 rushing yards in every game. Lead-back volume at $4,600 makes him one of the best values on the slate.

6

Ollie Gordon II

15.5

$5,600

Gordon handles more than half of Miami’s red-zone carries, which is why he is here. He was held out of the end zone for the first time since taking over the starting job, finishing with 69 yards on 19 carries against New England, and he has no receiving yards since Week 3, which limits him on a full-PPR site. Detroit ranks ninth against the run and Miami is a touchdown underdog, so he likely needs a touchdown to pay off.

7

Woody Marks

14.3

$5,700

David Montgomery has already been ruled out again, so Marks gets another start against the winless Chargers. In three games without Montgomery, he has averaged 19 opportunities and 82 scrimmage yards while playing at least 77% of the snaps. Efficiency is the concern, as he’s averaging 3.5 yards per carry with a long run of 12 yards, but the Chargers have given up eight rushing touchdowns to backs in seven games.

8

Tyler Allgeier

13.3

$5,400

Allgeier was the RB1 overall last week, turning 16 touches into 191 total yards and two touchdowns after Jeremiyah Love and Bam Knight both got hurt. Love is now on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and Knight is out with a concussion, leaving Allgeier and Evan Hull as the only healthy backs. Seattle is a tough matchup and Allgeier is playing through a toe injury, so don’t expect a repeat, but the volume should be there.

9

Rhamondre Stevenson

17.7

$6,100

TreVeyon Henderson has been ruled out with an illness for the second straight week, and in his absence last week Stevenson played 77% of the snaps and handled 22 touches, including a season-high 19 carries. Green Bay has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns in the league and the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs, and New England is a home favorite. His role on passing downs and near the goal line gives him a solid floor.

1

Puka Nacua

23.5

$8,800

Nacua caught 11 of 12 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, and in two games without Davante Adams he has 22 targets and two scores. He’s averaging 12.3 targets and 23.1 PPR points per game with a target share above 32%, and he’s off the injury report. Full-point PPR scoring rewards his short-area role more than half-PPR does, and Washington’s secondary has struggled all season. He is the safest receiver on the slate.

2

KC Concepcion Jr.

11.8

$4,600

Concepcion leads the Browns with 30 catches and has seen eight or more targets in three games. He broke out against Tennessee in Week 7 with eight catches for 129 yards on 10 targets and added three carries for 23 yards, the most scrimmage yards by a Brown in a game this season. Todd Monken has made it clear he wants to get the ball in the rookie’s hands, and the Saints rank 23rd in completion percentage allowed and 25th in yards per attempt allowed. The risk is Shedeur Sanders replacing Deshaun Watson, but a slot receiver who wins quickly is exactly where a young quarterback goes with the ball. He is still looking for his first touchdown.

3

Adonai Mitchell

12.9

$4,500

Mitchell led the Jets with seven catches for 142 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, and now Garrett Wilson has been ruled out with a concussion. Wilson’s absence frees up more than a quarter of the Jets’ targets, and Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. are the top two receivers left. Kansas City is a tough defense, but the Jets are big underdogs and should be throwing plenty. At $4,500 he only needs a fraction of that Raiders game to pay off.

4

CeeDee Lamb

21.8

$8,300

Lamb caught seven of 11 targets for 58 yards against Arizona, one of his quieter games, but the volume is elite. He has a 30.5% target share and 15 red-zone targets, more than a third of the team’s total, and he’s caught a touchdown in four of eight games. Indianapolis ranks 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed, and this game has one of the highest totals on the slate. He is $500 cheaper than Puka Nacua, which makes him a strong pivot.

5

Rashee Rice

15.4

$6,400

Rice led the Chiefs with seven catches for 53 yards and a touchdown in his return from a hamstring injury, and he’s now topped double-digit fantasy points in each of his last three full games. He practiced in full Thursday and is off the injury report. Patrick Mahomes II has averaged 23 fantasy points per game when Rice plays the whole way, and the Jets have allowed 14 touchdown passes. A Mahomes-Rice stack costs just $12,500.

6

Omar Cooper Jr.

11.4

$4,900

Cooper posted back-to-back 100-yard games before going without a target against the Raiders, but with Garrett Wilson out, ESPN’s Rich Cimini expects a significant role for the rookie this week. He’s working primarily out of the slot, and he’ll see far more volume than he did last week. He should be low-owned, and the ceiling is well above his price.

7

Amon-Ra St. Brown

20.2

$8,100

St. Brown is questionable with a rib injury after being limited all week, though he said he expects to be fine for Sunday. He caught seven of eight targets against Minnesota and has 53 catches for 571 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Detroit is a touchdown favorite in a game with a total around 50, and full PPR scoring suits his high-catch role. This is a 1 p.m. game, so check his status before lock, and if he’s out, Jameson Williams gets a significant bump.

8

Antonio Williams

13.0

$4,100

With Terry McLaurin out for the season and Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown both ruled out, Williams and Stefon Diggs are the only healthy receivers who have caught a pass from Jayden Daniels this season. The rookie led Washington in routes, targets and catches last week, finishing with five catches for 54 yards on an 83% snap share. The Rams have been tough on receivers, but they’re dealing with injuries at cornerback, and that kind of volume at $4,100 works in any format.

9

Efton Chism III

9.3

$3,600

A.J. Brown has been ruled out for the second straight week with a knee injury, and Romeo Doubs is also out, which leaves New England thin at receiver. Chism started opposite Kyle Williams last week and caught all five of his targets for 37 yards, including three catches on the Patriots’ touchdown drive. He did lose a fumble, but the coaching staff didn’t have the bodies to bench him. He is a short-area slot option, which plays better on DraftKings with a full point per catch, and at $3,600 he is a salary saver who can return value with five or six catches.

10

Malik Nabers

17.7

$7,300

Nabers missed Thursday’s practice with a knee issue but returned to a full session Friday and has no injury designation. He was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month after catching 36 passes for 509 yards and two touchdowns in four October games, and he led the NFL in receiving yards over that stretch. The Giants are coming off a bye, and the Eagles rank 29th in explosive pass rate allowed.

1

George Kittle

19.1

$6,000

Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr. and Christian Kirk have all been ruled out, so Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are essentially the 49ers’ passing game. The last time Evans and Samuel sat, Kittle set season highs with eight catches for 88 yards on 10 targets. He has topped 65 receiving yards in all but two games with five touchdowns, and the Raiders have allowed the second-most receptions and touchdowns to tight ends. He is projected for nearly six more points than any other tight end in this group, and at $6,000 he is the best tight end play on the slate.

2

Greg Dulcich

9.8

$3,100

Dulcich has at least four catches in each of his last three games, including a team-high five catches for 86 yards against the Jets in Week 7 and four for 43 against New England last week. He has been one of Malik Willis’ primary targets since the spring, and his speed fits an offense built on play-action. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and with Miami a touchdown underdog, the Dolphins should be throwing more than usual. At $3,100, he is the best salary saver at the position and frees up money for Jahmyr Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey.

3

Tyler Warren

13.1

$4,600

Warren caught just four passes for 18 yards in his return from a groin injury, but he matched a career high with 10 targets and has seen nine-plus in three of his last four games. The bigger storyline is Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are taking offers ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline, Taylor reportedly expects to be traded, and Indianapolis could limit his carries to protect the asset, which would push even more of the offense through the passing game. Dallas has the worst defense in the league by EPA, and this game has one of the highest totals on the slate with the Colts as underdogs.

1

Arizona

7.2

$2,000

This is a contrarian play built on Seattle’s injuries, at the minimum price for a defense. Sam Darnold is out with quad and rib injuries, and Drew Lock will start despite a right elbow injury that limited him all week and kept him from throwing much over the last two weeks. Seattle will also be without left tackle Charles Cross, left guard Quenton Nelson and receiver Rashid Shaheed. Lock did throw three touchdowns against Arizona in Week 2, and the Cardinals have struggled on defense all year, but at $2,000 this is a pure salary saver with upside if Lock’s elbow limits him.

2

New Orleans

9.8

$2,900

Deshaun Watson has been ruled out with a concussion, so Shedeur Sanders will start for Cleveland. Watson had taken a league-high 33 sacks, including eight against Pittsburgh last week, and Sanders took sacks on 9.8% of his dropbacks with a 4.7% interception rate as a starter last season. Cleveland games have averaged just 39 combined points, the second fewest in the league, and the Browns’ implied total is around 20. The Saints are coming off a bye and playing at home. The one concern is that New Orleans ranks last in pressure rate, but this is the highest-projected defense on the slate.

3

Philadelphia

8.8

$2,500

The Eagles are at home against a Giants team that hasn’t won a road game in Philadelphia since 2013. Cam Skattebo is doubtful, which leaves Devin Singletary as New York’s only healthy back, and Nolan Smith Jr. has a sack in three of his last four games. J.J. McCarthy has played well since taking over, so this isn’t a smash spot, and Philadelphia has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in every game. At $2,500, though, the Eagles are $400 cheaper than New Orleans, and that can be the difference in fitting a top running back.