TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, DK Edition

John Lee's TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, DK Edition John Lee Published 11/02/2019

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

LOW-SCORING WEEK? We have hit a point in the season where more teams (four this week, six next week) are getting their respective rest weeks. Additionally, we also lost a key game (Jacksonville-Houston) from the main slate this week because of an early London start. The result is that we have gone from 28 teams' worth of players early in the season to only 20 teams' worth of players this week, resulting in tougher decisions about players because there are simply less from which to choose. The consequence(s) is typically that overall scores are lower, "safe" cash game options tend to be more limited, and the amount of overlap on ownership is increased. It is the latter variable that you can exploit--by taking stances on those players who are, in your eyes, over-owned due to group-think on these limited player pool weeks, you can get a leg up on the competition by fading them and/or rostering their teammates for leverage. For example, as of the writing of this article, it appears that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin could reach ~ 25% ownership in GPP lineups on Sunday, largely because of an implied passing gamescript for the Buccaneers and because their backfield is a three-way committee that offers zero fantasy appeal. Imagine, however, if Cameron Brate scores a touchdown, a running back scores a touchdown, and the Bucs kick a few field goals; the result will be that at least 1/3 of tournament rosters will feature one (or both) of Evans and Godwin, who will not have delivered on not inconsequential salaries. Fading those high-caliber receivers will not be comfortable and maybe it is not the right decision for you, but the principle is the focus of this week's tip: Take stances on players you feel strongly about on weeks where the player pool is limited.

2019 FORMAT:

NAME OPP. SALARY PROJ. % CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Warren Moon @CAR $6,400 11% Yes «««« 4 stars = Best GPP selections.
Joe Montana KC $8,000 18% - ««« 3 stars = Better GPP selections.
Dan Marino NYG $4,400 3% Yes «« 2 stars = Good GPP selections.
Jim Kelly @OAK $5,100 7% - « 1 star = Average GPP selections.

A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:

  • The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
  • The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
  • The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
    • 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
    • 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
    • 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
    • 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
  • If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.

QUARTERBACKS

NAME OPP. SALARY PROJ. % CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Philip Rivers GB $5,100 6% Yes «««« MG3's continued struggles puts onus on Rivers to score.
Mitchell Trubisky @PHL $5,000 2% - «««« GPP special: Could get pulled, could score 30 vs. PHL.
Matthew Stafford @OAK $6,800 9% - ««« Gets OAK pass funnel defense. 2+ TDs in all but 1 game.
Kyle Allen TEN $5,200 3% - ««« Exposure to WRs driving Allen's spot in these ranks.
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ $4,800 2% - ««« Faces 21st DVOA pass defense in passing gamescript.
Jameis Winston @SEA $6,100 9% - «« 300+ passing yards in 4 of last 5 games. Excellent WRs.
Sam Darnold @MIA $5,900 3% - «« Just here for the matchup vs. MIA's turnstile defense.
Brandon Allen CLE $4,100 2% - «« Stacked w/Fant, Allen enables CMC/Dalvin GPP lineups.
Russell Wilson TB $7,100 15% Yes «« Crowd fave has easy path vs. TB; quiet in last 2 games.
Carson Wentz CHI $5,700 6% - « Here for the Ertz stacks vs. TE-friendly defense.
Matt Moore MIN $4,800 4% Yes « Journeyman hit 4x this salary vs. GB last week.
Aaron Rodgers @LAC $6,900 8% - « Lack of excitement around WR-CB matchups = less ARod.
Derek Carr DET $5,500 10% - « Has yet to surpass 300 yards in a game this year.
Kirk Cousins @KC $6,700 4% - « Upside is there, but this looks like a Dalvin showcase.
Josh Allen WAS $6,500 7% - « Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Daily FF DraftKings Davante Adams Brandon Allen Josh Allen Keenan Allen Kyle Allen Geronimo Allison Danny Amendola Robbie Chosen Cole Beasley Odell Beckham Jr Le'Veon Bell Cameron Brate John Brown Derek Carr Chris Carson Nick Chubb Justin Coleman James Conner Dalvin Cook Kirk Cousins Jamison Crowder Sam Darnold Stefon Diggs Jack Doyle Kenyan Drake Eric Ebron Evan Engram Zach Ertz Mike Evans Noah Fant Ryan Fitzpatrick Joe Flacco Myles Garrett Chris Godwin Dallas Goedert Kenny Golladay Melvin Gordon III Jimmy Graham Chris Harris Jr Dwayne Haskins Casey Hayward Derrick Henry Hunter Henry Tyreek Hill T.Y. Hilton Austin Hooper Jordan Howard Josh Jacobs Diontae Johnson Aaron Jones Marvin Jones Jr Travis Kelce Jarvis Landry Tyler Lockett Marlon Mack Baker Mayfield Christian McCaffrey DK Metcalf Anthony Miller David Montgomery David Moore DJ Moore DeVante Parker Zach Pascal Adrian Peterson Hunter Renfrow Allen Robinson II Aaron Rodgers Curtis Samuel Jaylen Samuels Devin Singletary Jonnu Smith JuJu Smith-Schuster Matthew Stafford Courtland Sutton Ryan Tannehill Adam Thielen Mitch Trubisky Marquez Valdes-Scantling Darren Waller Denzel Ward Sammy Watkins Carson Wentz Tre'Davious White Greedy Williams Mike Williams Preston Williams Tyrell Williams Russell Wilson Jameis Winston
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