It’s hard to believe we’re a week away from the NFL regular season. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, accordingly, a lot can change from our original expectations. Here’s a quick look at some of the most significant changes from my initial thoughts back in early May.
On Second Thought…
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) is the better value than Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk is younger than Larry Fitzgerald, but is he better? We all know DeAndre Hopkins is the new alpha dog, but training camp reminded us Fitzgerald is just as likely to be the team’s other 1,000-yard receiver, yet you can draft him quite a few rounds after Kirk.
Miles Boykin (BAL) isn’t draftable as a sleeper
I was out on an island in the early summer, expecting Boykin could emerge as a 1b to Marquise Brown’s 1a. But another quiet camp and strong play by veteran Willie Snead has me regretting all those best-ball shares I acquired of Boykin already.
Allen Robinson (CHI) is the riskiest of the top-10 receivers
I almost gave Amari Cooper the nod for riskiest WR1 because of his questionable status for Week 1, but Robinson edges him out because of the uncertain situation. Neither Nick Foles nor Mitch Trubisky took command of the quarterback room this summer – and two bad quarterbacks do not equate to fantasy stardom for high-volume receivers. Robinson has been a fantasy darling with bad quarterbacking before – in Chicago and Jacksonville – so don’t avoid him, but be mindful of the risks.
A.J. Green (CIN) is going to break hearts again, but Tyler Boyd will fix them
Another year, another lousy hamstring. At some point, the “injury-prone” label becomes valid. I can’t imagine drafting Green in the fifth or sixth round, hoping this summer’s malady is minor when every other year it ends up being a season-crippling issue. Boyd, on the other hand, had another stellar camp and has built a rapport with Joe Burrow. That will translate to fantasy success, even though Boyd comes off the board later than Green.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) will not be denied
Amari Cooper is a legitimate fantasy star and NFL caliber No. 1. Michael Gallup was better than Cooper last year and is going to break the bank as some team’s No. 1 on his next contract. But CeeDee Lamb – drafted as a “nice to have” by Dallas, showed all summer that he’s going to be their crucial cog. When the team’s own staff writers rated Lamb the No. 1 player in camp, it’s time to start buying the hype train.
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) is better than Courtland Sutton, already
Jeudy was my second-favorite rookie receiver entering the draft (behind CeeDee Lamb), and he’s answered every question this summer. As long as Drew Lock isn’t a total washout, Jeudy is going to make fantasy managers who rostered him very, very happy. As Denver insider Cecil Lammey noted, “however early you’re drafting Jerry Jeudy, it’s not early enough.”
Allen Lazard (GB) isn’t the answer to the No. 2 puzzle
The Packers’ inability to find a dynamic counterpart for Davante Adams has become the stuff of legend, and the latest hopeful – Lazard – has faded before the season begins. He may still be the guy, but it was his role to lose this summer, and he might have lost it with a quiet, forgettable camp. Last year’s failed hopeful – Marquez Valdes-Scantling – was Aaron Rodgers’ pick as the most impressive receiver (other than Adams) in camp. It’s a cycle of futility, it seems.
DJ Chark (JAX) is Jaguars-proof
Jacksonville is taking a page from their Floridian MLB counterparts – the Marlins – and tanking in a full-on rebuilding mode, as owner Shad Khan spends his time focused on soccer and professional wrestling. The surgical dismantling of a once talent-laden roster is sad, and it’ll be a long season for Jaguars fans. But DJ Chark is transcendent. Like Terry McLaurin in D.C., Chark will be a target vacuum and be able to do enough on his own to overcome bad game scripts and suboptimal quarterbacking.
Mecole Hardman (KC) may still be a year away from relevance
Colleague Sigmund Bloom is fond of telling subscribers to make sure they’re coming away with pieces of great teams on draft day. And he’s right. You should make sure your roster is full of players who are on can’t-miss offenses because if their number is called, great things can unfold. Mecole Hardman fits the bill, but some of us hoped he would do enough this summer to push for the No. 2 role over Sammy Watkins. That didn’t happen. Hardman appears to be still stuck in the No. 4 spot behind Hill, Watkins, and DeMarcus Robinson. His time will come; it just might not be until 2021.
Keenan Allen (LAC) remains underappreciated
Allen used to be undervalued because of an inaccurate “injury-prone” label. Now that he’s shed the durability concerns, he’s underappreciated because of the quarterback change. While Tyrod Taylor isn’t Philip Rivers, he’s still an accurate, veteran quarterback. And with Mike Williams already banged up (and not that talented, to be honest), and questionable depth behind them, Allen should be a 10+ target receiver in ideal game scripts.
Josh Reynolds (LAR) is a fantasy non-factor
With Brandin Cooks in Houston, I initially projected Reynolds as the primary beneficiary. That was wrong. Not only is Los Angeles likely to use more 12-personnel – thus removing the need for a fantasy-relevant No. 3 receiver – but Reynolds isn’t very good. While catch rate isn’t a perfect statistic, because you have to adjust for the type of routes run, the quality of quarterbacking, and game script, even an optimistic analysis of Reynold’s career points to a guy with bad hands. Really, really bad hands. A quiet camp sealed it; he’s not draftable.
Bryan Edwards (LV) may be better than Henry Ruggs, at least in terms of fantasy value
Tyrell Williams went on Injured Reserve, and the immediate reaction was to bump Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow higher. While they benefit, conceptually, both were going to start anyway. It’s Edwards’ stock that gets the most significant boost because he will now join Ruggs in the starting lineup. Edwards has been as electric as Ruggs this summer and made as many highlight-reel plays. I won’t be shocked if Ruggs it the better fantasy player, but I’d much rather draft Edwards six to eight rounds later.
Preston Williams (MIA) is a smarter draft choice than DeVante Parker
Ah, DeVante Parker. How many years did his talent lure our fantasy frigates into crashing rocks? But then 2019 happened, and all was forgiven. Except Parker reminded us in August why he was such a spiteful mistress. Lots of missed time, again, should be cause for concern at his ADP. Meanwhile, Preston Williams was explosive as a rookie before tearing his ACL, and was back on the field ahead of schedule and was putting on a show late in camp while Parker was sidelined.
Adam Thielen (MIN) will return to top-12 status
The consensus outlook in Minnesota is all wrong. Yes, they’re not going to be a pass-happy team evocative of the Mike Martz Rams. But they’re also not going to be a ground-and-pound team suggestive of last year’s Titans. New play-caller Gary Kubiak has called plays for 21 NFL seasons, and his teams have averaged 16th in passing attempts – 580 throws per season. If Cousins even approaches 540 attempts, given the lack of other receiving talent, Thielen will vault back into WR1 status.
Gunner Olszewski (NE) is a name we may need to know
You mocked Belichick when he traded for an undersized punt returner in Miami – who turned out to be Wes Welker. You laughed when Belichick replaced Welker with a former option quarterback turned defensive back turned receiver named Julian Edelman. And you’re about to make the same mistake again with Gunner Olszewski. The special teams ace quietly turned in the most impressive camp of anyone other than Edelman. While everyone else is hoping N’Keal Harry is a gamer, you can throw out Olszewski’s name in the final round of your draft and possibly secure the next magic trick in the Patriots’ arsenal.
Sterling Shepard (NYG) stands above his teammates
Darius Slayton was among the most surprising rookies in 2019 and proved he belongs. But he did most of his work with either Golden Tate or Sterling Shepard hurt. With all three vying for roles in camp, it was Shepard who stood out every day. Tate and Slayton are also talented and will have their moments. But on a relative basis, Shepard is the Giants receiver with the upside to help win a championship.
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) deserves more respect, particularly in PPR formats
Sometimes, even when you make detailed projections for every player in the league, you can whiff on a player. That’s what I did with Crowder earlier this year because I mistook him for a plodder who can’t stay healthy. But he played 16 games last year and converted 122 targets into 78 receptions for 833 yards and six touchdowns. Those aren’t All-Pro numbers, but on a team with no discernible options beyond him, Crowder has a 120-target floor with a 150-target upside at a fraction of the cost.
DeSean Jackson (PHI) is the Eagles receiver to draft, but don’t overpay
Jackson had eight receptions for 154 yards and two touchdowns against Washington last year. It was as emphatic a homecoming as we’ve seen in the league in many years, and portended great things. But as we know, Jackson would only catch one more reception (Week 9) in 2019. Despite totally rebuilding the receiving corps this summer, with three rookies set to make the 53-man roster, Jackson finds himself back in a familiar role. He’s the No. 1 option entering Week 1 against…Washington. Jalen Reagor’s shoulder displacement gives Jackson a few weeks of fantasy stardom if he can stay on the field.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) could lead the AFC in receptions
Like many analysts, I was skeptical of the Steelers entering this year. Last year’s train wreck left a lot of failed fantasy teams in its wake. But then I remembered – Duck Hodges. DUCK. HODGES. 2019 is a mulligan, in golf parlance, for the Steelers offense. Now that we’ve seen Ben Roethlisberger back on the practice field, without a gut, and pain-free for the first time in 15 years, it’s time to start thinking of the Steelers as an offense you want to target on draft day. Smith-Schuster is in his prime, healthy, and has chemistry with Roethlisberger that can’t be discounted.
Trent Taylor (SF) is the deepest sleeper worth knowing
Before Trent Taylor tore his ACL last summer, head coach Kyle Shanahan said he had the chance to be the team’s best receiver. That’s high praise for a player with three career touchdowns in three NFL seasons. Still, it’s also rooted in what Shanahan saw of Taylor in practice, mainly when working with Jimmy Garoppolo. Taylor is a long shot, but the 49ers are coming off a Super Bowl appearance, yet there’s no proven, go-to receiver on the roster.
