One of the best things about Footballguys is the sheer number of analysts we have on staff. With so many different and well-formed opinions to sift through, our subscribers can always get a 360-degree view of player analysis, strategies, rankings, reactions to breaking news, and everything else that goes along with winning at fantasy football.
Each summer, our staff articles on Undervalued and Overrated players are among the most heavily viewed on the site. But what should you do when the competing opinions of so many analysts inevitably land a player on both lists?
Ideally, you want to take in all the information you can and come to a decision on your own after considering every side of the argument. You may even do some statistical research to break the tie. Unfortunately, not everyone has the time to dig deeper.
The goal of this article is to help both types of fantasy gamers. If you want in-depth player analysis beyond the blurbs in our Undervalued/Overrated features, there is plenty here for you. And if you need someone to cast the deciding vote on the industry’s most divisive players, you also came to the right place.
Are the following players undervalued or overrated? Let’s decide once and for all.
*The ADPs shown below are from Fantasy Football Calculator’s PPR data.
Trevor Lawrence
Staff Votes for Undervalued - 3
Staff Votes for Overrated - 2
Why He’s a Value
Matt Waldman: There are concerns Urban Meyer is showing the NFL that he's on his way to becoming the next Steve Spurrier or Lou Holtz--excellent college coaches who were not prepared for the realities of pro football. Even so, Lawrence is an excellent prospect who wins in and outside the pocket. Think Andrew Luck with better wheels. Luck was not the early master of coverages that many made him out to be, which is why I'm comfortable with the comparison. Expect the Jaguars defense to generate a lot of garbage-time scenarios. With this young and talented cast, Lawrence should deliver top-12 fantasy production.
Why He’s a Value Trap
Ryan Weisse: There is a lot of hype behind being the first overall pick, but there are too many unknowns to make him your fantasy quarterback in 2021. First, we have no idea if Urban Meyer's system will work in the NFL. The Jaguars have an established offensive coordinator, but Darrell Bevell was in Detroit the last two years, which wasn’t exactly a hotbed of fantasy production. Second, the wide receivers are still unproven for the most part, and who is their tight end? Basically, Lawrence’s weapons are questionable. In redraft, he’s not worth gambling on. Wait until he's on waivers four weeks into the season.
Which is it?
Lawrence is UNDERVALUED at his current ADP, and Waldman hit the three key reasons why:
- There is more to getting drafted first overall than hype. Lawrence has it all -- size, pocket awareness, athleticism, accuracy, improvisational talent. And best of all...
- He’s got legs. Lawrence possesses the short-area quickness and burst to excel on the option plays Meyer called frequently for his quarterbacks near the goal-line during his college coaching career. And that same mobility allows Lawrence to extend plays and create long gains as a passer. These are traits we should actively seek out in our fantasy quarterbacks.
- Jacksonville’s defense allowed 30.8 points per game last season, which ranked second-to-last in the NFL. While they made some additions in the off-season, the Jaguars field the league’s youngest defense and will be changing schemes in their first year under defensive coordinator Joe Cullen. Lawrence should enjoy garbage time opportunities galore and see additional passing volume, in general, due to Meyer’s plan for the offense to play up-tempo.
As for Weisse’s concerns:
- We don’t know if Meyer’s offense will translate. But it will likely take some time for opposing defenses to adjust to his fast-paced spread attack. You’ll recall Chip Kelly’s Eagles offenses finished inside the Top 5 in scoring in each of his first two NFL seasons before falling off a cliff.
- Bevell is an accomplished offensive coordinator with 14 years of NFL experience. He oversaw a Top 6 scoring offense for five consecutive seasons in Seattle (2012-2016). His last two years in Detroit went poorly because Matthew Stafford was either missing games or playing injured. If anything, Bevell lends credibility to Meyer’s operation.
- Most of Lawrence’s weapons are young, but they also ooze upside. D.J. Chark topped 1,000 yards and had eight touchdowns in his second season, at age 23. Laviska Shenault might be the most athletic wide receiver in the entire league, 31-year-old Marvin Jones still has plenty left in the tank, and 6’6” skyscraper Collin Johnson eliminates the need for a pass-catching tight end.
Jalen Hurts
Staff Votes for Undervalued - 2
Staff Votes for Overrated - 3
Why He’s a Value
Victoria Geary: Hurts will be this year's Josh Allen or Kyler Murray. He possesses tremendous rushing upside, and his ADP remains a value in drafts, hovering between QB10 to QB12. Hurts’ 37.8 fantasy points in Week 15 was 2020's sixth-highest single-game score from a quarterback, which is exactly the type of ceiling you want in your lineup each week. When he took over in Weeks 14-16, the Eagles jumped to first overall in total yards per game and fourth in rushing yards per game. If we dive further into Hurts' 52% completion percentage from 2020, the context shows he was not afraid to chuck the ball downfield. 46% of his passing attempts were thrown 10 or more yards, which was the highest rate in the NFL. With a healthy offensive line, the addition of Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, a growing rapport with tight end Dallas Goedert, and a sub-par defense, the table for a top-5 fantasy finish is set for Hurts.
Why He’s a Value Trap
Ben Cummins: In the three games he both started and finished last season, Hurts ran for over 100 yards once and threw for more than 300 yards twice. These numbers shouldn’t have come as a surprise after he capped off an awe-inspiring collegiate career by throwing for 3,851 yards and 32 touchdowns and rushing for 1,298 yards and 20 touchdowns in his senior season at Oklahoma. Hurts could easily make me look silly here, but he’s currently getting drafted ahead of Mathew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Trey Lance. I prefer all four to Hurts. New head coach Nick Sirianni needs to prove his competence, and his apparent reluctance to buy into Hurts as the Eagles’ starting quarterback isn’t helping. Neither is Deshaun Watson trade speculation.
Which is it?
Hurts is UNDERVALUED at his current ADP. Look back on a list of last year’s Top 10 quarterbacks. With the exceptions of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, each player listed ran for at least 300 yards or scored five times on the ground.
Hurts rushed for 238 yards in his three complete games in 2020. Even if his rushing yards per game average were to drop by as much as 50%, he would need to be legendarily bad as a passer to finish outside of this year’s Top 10. Fortunately, there are reasons for optimism.
- Hurts’ pass-catchers from a year ago were dismal. He was forced to play with the dried-out husk of Alshon Jeffery, former AAF quarterback Greg Ward, and Travis Fulgham, a former sixth-round draft pick who was cut after one season by the receiver-needy Detroit Lions. Devonta Smith, a more seasoned Jalen Reagor, and a healthy Zach Ertz are significant upgrades.
- He played behind an offensive line that fielded a record 14 different player combinations in 2020. The healthy returns of starting guard Brandon Brooks and perennial Pro-Bowl tackle Lane Johnson provide a shot in the arm for the entire offense.
- Sirianni doesn’t inspire confidence, but what choice does he have besides riding with Hurts this season? He can’t sell Joe Flacco to Eagles fans. And if he could somehow defend trading for a quarterback under suspicion for 22 different counts of sexual misconduct, Deshaun Watson would have to escape suspension to play for Philadelphia this year.
As Geary alluded to, players like Stafford and Burrow have great potential but don’t share Hurts’ ceiling, which rests comfortably inside the Top 5 players at the position. Don’t overthink drafting a quarterback in Rounds 9-10 who can realistically pad his stats with over 1,000 rushing yards.
J.K. Dobbins
Staff Votes for Undervalued - 3
Staff Votes for Overrated - 2
Why He’s a Value
Andrew Davenport: Last season, the Dobbins’ snap count spiked after Baltimore's Week 7 bye. From Week 8 forward, he was the PPR RB11 in total fantasy points. The fact that he's being drafted in the mid-RB2 range is the definition of value. Dobbins may have some bouts of inconsistency due to a lack of passing game involvement, but he's a virtual lock for 1,200 total yards and double-digit touchdowns. Getting his safe floor with the potential for more receiving work or a high touchdown total is exactly the kind of value, with upside, to chase in drafts.
Why He’s a Value Trap
Jason Wood: We all want Dobbins to be an every-down workhorse. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries.
Which is it?
This one is too easy. Dobbins is UNDERVALUED, and he'll be deserving of a pick in the top half of Round 1 at this time next year. Wood must have missed this rundown on how to navigate the infamous "Running Back Dead Zone."
Amari Cooper
Staff Votes for Undervalued - 4
Staff Votes for Overrated - 2
Why He’s a Value
Jason Wood: Amari Cooper proved again last year he's not giving up his spot as Dallas' No. 1 easily. Last year, he was on pace for a monstrous 1,600-yard season with Dak Prescott healthy but managed a 77-catch, 1,003-yard, 6-touchdown mark without him. Dallas' offense should be at or near the top of the league with Prescott and the offensive line healthy. Cooper was the No. 8 fantasy receiver in 2019 when things were clicking. That's his baseline expectation this year, yet he's being drafted several rounds later.
Why He’s a Value Trap
Pat Fitzmaurice: Cooper is a terrific receiver, but CeeDee Lamb looks like a superstar, and Michael Gallup is a great No. 3. But I'm less worried about target competition than I am about Cooper's slow-healing foot. He's back in camp now, but Cooper's recovery was so prolonged that it's fair to wonder whether his foot will be an ongoing problem.
Which is it?
We finally have ourselves a challenge. Fitzmaurice is correct to worry about Cooper’s ankle despite his return to preseason action. Cooper has piled up a lengthy list of lower-body injuries since 2019 (ankle, quad, knee, hamstring, ankle again), and we know he's at less than 100% to start the year. “Don't draft players you already know are hurt” is a fantasy football axiom for a reason.
It’s also dangerous to play the small-sample extrapolation game with Cooper’s splits in four games with Prescott. Dallas’ defense got smoked in the first half of games against the Falcons, Seahawks, and Browns in Weeks 2-4, respectively. The resulting game scripts necessitated an unsustainable 54 pass attempts per game for Prescott across that sample.
While we should expect a more balanced offensive attack from the Cowboys this year, it’s not necessarily a reason to fade Cooper. Dallas played at the second-fastest situation-neutral pace of play in 2020, and their defense didn’t improve much on paper. The offensive pie remains large enough for Cooper to carve out his usual slice while accounting for progression from Lamb, who has all the trappings of a breakout superstar.
If we remove Cooper’s 51 targets, 37 receptions, 401 yards, and one touchdown in Weeks 1-4 of 2020 from his 30 total career games played with Prescott, his per-game averages include 7.7 targets, 5.2 receptions, 74.5 yards, and .54 touchdowns per game. Extrapolating this 26-game sample over 16 games results in 254 PPR fantasy points, roughly the equivalent to last seasons’ WR10, Adam Thielen.
Cooper is getting drafted as a borderline Top 15 wide receiver, which puts Wood on the winning side of the argument. Currently, Cooper is UNDERVALUED, or at the very least, appropriately valued if you want to ding him for entering the season hurt.
Rob Gronkowski
Staff Votes for Undervalued - 3
Staff Votes for Overrated - 4
Why He’s a Value
Matt Waldman: O.J. Howard was a favorite fantasy value for me last summer, but his Achilles injury cost him that opportunity to make good on it -- and likely a triumphant return to elite starter skills. Gronkowski looked like the player of old down the stretch, and I expect more of the same in 2021. He'll earn some high-leverage shots up the seam and easier looks thanks to the presence of three excellent wide receivers. Gronkowski and Brady also had to get acclimated to the progressions and coverage calls they were used to running in New England that was different under Bruce Arians. Look for them to be more aligned with the Buccaneers’ offense this year.
Why He’s a Value Trap
Ryan Hester: Gronkowski's workload will be managed throughout the regular season as it was last year with Tampa Bay attempting to make another deep playoff run. He also shares a position room with a younger, more athletic, former first-round pick in O.J. Howard and has to compete for targets with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and a number of running backs capable of catching passes.
Which is it?
Gronkowski is a VALUE TRAP. He is the best tight end of all time, ranked eighth in tight end PPR scoring in 2020, looked rejuvenated in the playoffs, and has a mind-meld with Brady. We have every reason to expect Gronkowski to approximate his cumulative numbers from last season.
The trouble is, if you miss out on an early-round tight end, you should be aiming higher than what Gronkowski can offer at this point in his career. Several players are available in the same tier of tight ends (or later) who have the potential to give you more than the occasional difficult-to-predict spike week sprinkled in between a handful of sub-five-point performances. Go with Mike Gesicki, Jonnu Smith, Gerald Everett, or Cole Kmet instead.
