Cracking FanDuel Week 20

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update

Check back throughout the weekend for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.

At minimum we will have two updates this weekend, possibly more.

Update #1 Saturday 2:54PM EST

First and foremost, apologies for the shortened article this week, still not feeling well.

We still don't have news on Leonard Fournette. I'm holding the lineup as is for now. We should get some more news prior to 4PM EST which is when Fournette needs to be activated by. If Fournette is active, we will be monitoring if any news comes out of the Buccaneers beat reporters about snap counts or limitations. A healthy Fournette, I would prefer over Singletary or Mitchell, but I can't say that with 100% confidence at the moment.

Best of luck everyone this week.

Sunday 7:42AM EST

The start to this week would qualify as it went as well as it could have gone, but still not perfect. Last week for example, we relatively knew we were going to cash based off of how highly rostered For reference, I'm using a 100 person contest when quoting roster percentages, so it can vary based on your contest, but should be in the similar ballpark. We will talk about Head to Head strategy further below on the Lineup Strategy piece.

The Good

Eli Mitchell- 32%- This one was huge. For Mitchell to only score 8.6 points is massive. Interestingly enough, 8 people had the exact same lineup of A.J. Dillon Eli Mitchell, and Davante Adams. Those lineups are pretty much done for.
Joe Burrow- 10%- These lineups are pretty much dead. To only get 13 points out of your quarterback with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, and Tom Brady coming up on Sunday is going to make it really hard for these lineups.
Randall Cobb- 10%- Maybe I was just lucky in this 50/50, but for 10% of people to use Randall Cobb was very surprising
Deebo Samuel- 15%- At $8,600, Deebo was largely a disappointment which is a great thing for our lineups. Deebo was able to muster just 9.8 FanDuel points as he did not top 50 rushing or receiving yards this week.

My Roster:
Tee Higgins- 36%- Higgins rebounded nicely and it seemed a lot of people were scared off of him. To get 13.1 points out of a $6,400 player is huge this week.
Davante Adams- 76%- Adams wasn't great, as he only had 13.5 points which for a player who is $8,700 you're going to want more from. However, I didn't expect him to be 76% rostered. I was expecting him to be in the 30-40% range as I didn't think most people would go with the double stack of Kupp/Adams which it appears people are going with.

Sunday Morning Lineup Strategy

This week is all about how you feel in your contests. The big question this week is whether to play Devin Singletary or Leonard Fournette. Fournette seemingly is going to be much more popular than Singletary based on everything that is being talked about throughout the industry. Here's how I would approach the topic:

If you have a comfortable lead in a head to head, or are in a 50/50 that has a percent rostered distribution similar to the one I'm referencing above, then I would switch from Devin Singletary to Leonard Fournette just to cancel out your opponents. If you are in a Head-to-head where you might have faced A.J. Brown, or faced someone who didn't take Davante Adams, but took another player who had a great game, then you may want to go with Devin Singletary just for the uniqueness factor of having a player who can compete and potentially catch up on some points against Fournette in your opponents lineup.

Primary lineup:

• QB Tom Brady, TB, $7,800
• RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, $5,700
• RB Cam Akers, LAR, $5,700
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,500
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,600
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,400
• TE Tyler Higbee, LAR, $5,400
• Flex Leonard Fournette, TB, $7,000
• TD Cincinnati, $3,400

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.

• Kansas City (vs Buffalo) 28.5 points
• Green Bay (vs San Francisco) 26.75 points
• Buffalo (at Kansas City) 26 points
• Tampa Bay (vs LA Rams) 25.25points

Week 19 Recap

Week 19 was another great week as if you could avoid a few land mines you were in great shape. Avoiding Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins ended up being incredibly profitable even with Darrel Williams who scored negative points!

What went right?

• Zay Jones was critical. As the punt play of the week, he was able to put up 14.6 FanDuel points and was fairly low rostered.
• Elijah Mitchell was a solid piece to the roster as he had 96 yards and a touchdown.

What went wrong?

Things are bound to go wrong on such a small slate and limited options. This week a number of things went wrong, but they went wrong for most people.

• Darrel Williams getting injured early in the game was awful, but he was very highly rostered so it was not as crushing. Having a player score negative points and still winning is not something that happens every week.
• Dak was not a great play, but ended up working out due to the fourth quarter comeback as well as the rushing touchdown that he added. Sometimes it requires a little bit of luck to do well in this game and while Dak struggled, to still get 21 points out of him was very lucky.

Format

This week, we are primarily going to focus in on the Saturday-Monday slate. We will also be providing lineups for the Sunday only slate in case you view this article on Sunday Morning.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling is doubtful this week with a back injury. This should help both Davante Adams as well as Allen Lazard this week as the Packers are projected to score the second most points on the week.
• Leonard Fournette will once again be a game-time decision. He needs to be activated off of IR prior to 4PM on Sunday to play this week. Will likely be another week where if he plays he’s a great play, if not, Ke’Shawn Vaughn will once again be a fantastic play.

Strategy Thoughts: How to Approach Week 20

Week 20 is an interesting week as there are three superstars on this roster that you’re going to want to consider. Having to choose between Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp is going to be incredibly difficult this week.

This week, the decision is really what you can afford and how you value the running back position. For me, I don’t see a lot of difference in players such as Devin Singletary and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but I see a significant difference in Davante Adams down to A.J. Brown or even lower. This week, you can very easily take both Kupp and Adams as they’re the two most consistent players at the position, while punting on both Cam Akers and Clyde Edwards-Helaire where if they can find the end zone, you’re in a great position.

Obviously, it goes without being said that on a four game slate the margins are fairly thin. Be careful with your bankroll, now is not the time to chase losses or go big after wins.

Commentary to come, dealing with Covid at the moment.

LINEUPS

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 120.1)

• QB Tom Brady, TB, $7,800
• RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, $5,700
• RB Cam Akers, LAR, $5,700
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,500
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,600
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,400
• TE Tyler Higbee, LAR, $5,400
• Flex Devin Singletary, BUF $7,200
• TD Cincinnati, $3,400

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – FBG Optimal Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 123.3)

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,800
• RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $7,800
• RB Cam Akers, LAR, $5,700
• WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $5,900
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $8,600
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,400
• TE Tyler Higbee, LAR, $5,400
• Flex Devin Singletary, $7,200
• TD Tennessee, $4,100

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Sunday Only Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 120.9)

• QB Tom Brady, TB, $7,800
• RB Leonard Fournette, TB, $7,000
• RB Cam Akers, LAR, $5,700
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,500
• WR Odell Beckham, LAR, $6,500
• WR Gabriel Davis, BUF, $5,300
• TE Rob Gronkowski, TB, $7,100
• Flex Devin Singletary, BUF $7,200
• TD Kansas City Chiefs, $3,700