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Sunday Morning Update
No update this week. Going to go with the same lineup. Best of luck everyone
- QB Joe Burrow, CIN, $7,500
- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, $5,700
- RB Cam Akers, LAR, $6,200
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,700
- WR JaMarr Chase, CIN, $8,000
- WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,400
- TE George Kittle, SF, $5,800
- Flex Elijah Mitchell, SF, $7,000
- TD Kansas City, $3,700
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
Kansas City is the only team that meets the criteria here of over 26 points.
- Kansas City (vs Cincinnati) 30.75 points
Week 20 Recap
Week 20 was another good week based off of the Sunday Morning update. Going with Leonard Fournette over Singletary was critical to survive having minimal exposure to the Kansas City Buffalo game. The one thing here is that it is critical to continue to evaluate your lineup on these multi day slates just because you get so much more information every time a game finishes.
What went right?
- Tee Higgins had a nice bounceback week after disappointing many in the prior week. Higgins had 96 yards and seven catches all while being sub-7k
- The swap from Devin Singletary to Leonard Fournette was the difference in cashing and not as Fournette had a fantastic game scoring two touchdowns and adding 9 receptions for 56 yards on top of the 51 yards he earned on the ground.
- Cooper Kupp was surprisingly lower owned than I thought he would be as most people went with Davante Adams and then had Ja’Marr Chase or other receivers in their lineup. Kupp was fantastic last week with 183 yards and a touchdown.
What went wrong?
- Tom Brady was the wrong call at quarterback. On a slate that had Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II go crazy, taking Brady was just a bad play that almost cost me.
- Cam Akers was highly disappointing as to get a running back on a team that scored 30 points who touched the ball 27 times score just 4.5 points is crazy low.
Final Week
This has been a great year and I want to thank you for following along this season as well as subscribing to Footballguys. It has been one of our best seasons doing this as we’ve avoided some critical injuries, got some lucky breaks, and made some great late swaps. It’s been a lot of fun, and hopefully we’ll be back next season to do this all over again. As always you can reach out to me at knotts@footballguys.com or on Twitter
Approaching a Two Game Slate
We are going to keep this article short and sweet this week as there just are not a lot of decisions to make. On a 15 game slate, it can often take me 7-8 hours to align on a cash game lineup. This week, it took all of 20 minutes as there are a few must plays for me (Kupp, Higgins, Akers, Mitchell) so it really comes down to how you want to build the rest of your roster. You'll see some people do some creative things such as completely game stacking one of these two games (likely Cincinnati vs Kansas City), which can work if it turns out to be similar to the Buffalo vs Kansas City game although for me, you lose out on Cooper Kupp in this scenario which seems to be sub-optimal.
On a two game slate, the first advice is tread very carefully. We wouldn’t advise you to play a cash game format on this small of a slate but I know that a lot of you are still going to do that anyway, so we might as well do the research. The problem is that the amount of overlap that we’re going to see this week is going to be extremely high and it really gets down to just a handful of players facing off against each other.
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Quarterback |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
20.1 |
7500 |
At $7,500, Burrow allows for some much needed cost savings on this slate. Burrow dominated the earlier matchup against the Chiefs throwing for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Chiefs' secondary has struggled allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and if the Bengals have any chance this week, it will be based on the arm of Burrow. |
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2 |
24.4 |
8800 |
The decision between Mahomes and Burrow is incredibly tight, and if you can afford Mahomes, you should probably take the Chiefs quarterback. The Bengals secondary has been abysmal this season allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game |
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Running Back |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
12.7 |
7000 |
This is going to be another week where we are taking a popular player who failed to perform. We've been on Mitchell a lot this year, but were off of him last week. This week, we're getting back on Mitchell. Mitchell has topped 85 yards in both of his two meetings against the Rams this season, and has the highest yardage prop of any running back on this slate. |
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2 |
13.3 |
6200 |
Akers is simply too cheap if his role stays the same, as he had 27 touches last week. The concern is the two fumbles and whether his role will change, but this is a team that has invested a lot in Akers and expect him to still see the majority of the workload this week. |
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3 |
9.8 |
5700 |
Volume is the big issue for Edwards-Helaire as he had just 8 touches in his first game back from injury. He looked great though as he averaged 8.6 yards-per-carry and should see some additional volume this week. You're still relying on him to find the end zone or break a long run which is concerning and the reason he's not higher at his price tag. |
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4 |
16.1 |
8200 |
Mixon is just too highly priced for the output. The Chiefs shut Mixon down in their first meeting as he only carried the ball 12 times as the Bengals went pass heavy in that contest. Over the playoffs, the Chiefs have not allowed a running back to top 30 yards on the ground as both Devin Singletary and Najee Harris struggled against this defense. |
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
13.5 |
6200 |
At what point does someone at FanDuel realize that they've underpriced Tee Higgins all season? The guy had 96 yards receiving last week and sees his price decrease down to $6,200. |
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2 |
19.4 |
9700 |
On a two game slate to get someone at Cooper Kupp's talent level is something that is going to be difficult to pass up. |
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3 |
15.2 |
8100 |
The decision between Tyreek Hill and Ja'Marr Chase is going to be one that is going to make or break your lineup. I slightly prefer Hill based off of the touchdown upside as well as being on the better team. However, if it comes down to $100 that you need to make your team fit, Chase is a more than acceptable play this week. |
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4 |
15.7 |
8000 |
This one is interesting as if you base it off of his prior game, Chase should be number one on the board as he had 266 yards and 3 touchdowns against this Chiefs defense. However, that should make the Chiefs focus even more on how to stop him this week. Chase has topped 100 yards in four of his last five games, but has scored a touchdown in just two of his last nine which is the concern. He's still a great play and a key piece if the Bengals want to have a chance this week. |
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5 |
9.5 |
5600 |
Top punt play wide receiver. Aiyuk was shut out last week against Green Bay, but did have 107 yards against this Rams defense in Week 18 and 66 in Week 19. With Jalen Ramsey going to be shadowing Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk could be the player that the 49ers rely on this week. |
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Tight End |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
14.6 |
7700 |
The Bengals have struggled with the tight end position for most of the season as their linebacking group is one of the worst coverage defenses in the NFL. The only question is whether you can afford Kelce, which is very difficult this week without making significant sacrifices. |
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2 |
11.8 |
5800 |
To get a player of Kittle's talents at just $5,800 is too hard not to pass up. Kittle has struggled recently failing to top 30 yards in four of his last five games, but will need to be a key part of this offense if they're going to have any success against the Rams this week. |
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3 |
8.2 |
5500 |
Higbee is a decent pivot off of Kittle. Higbee has been consistent, but that consistency has been between 40-55 yards in five of his last six games. There's not much to be excited about with Higbee, but if Kittle struggles he would be the other tight end you would want unless you go up to Kelce. Could make for a good pivot in a late swap situation. |
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Team Defense |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
8.2 |
3700 |
At $3,700 to get a defense that is facing Joe Burrow who was sacked 9 times last week it's going to be too good not to pass up. The Bengals offensive line is a mess at the moment |
Lineups
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 124.4)
Obviously having a lineup with just one Chiefs player is a risk, but they’re priced up too high and focusing on the value of this slate.
- QB Joe Burrow, CIN, $7,500
- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, $5,700
- RB Cam Akers, LAR, $6,200
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,700
- WR JaMarr Chase, CIN, $8,000
- WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,400
- TE George Kittle, SF, $5,800
- Flex Elijah Mitchell, SF, $7,000
- TD Kansas City, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Footballguys Optimal Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 125.9)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,800
- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, $5,700
- RB Cam Akers, LAR, $6,200
- WR Odell Beckham, LAR, $6,300
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $8,000
- WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,400
- TE George Kittle, SF, $5,800
- Flex Deebo Samuel, SF, $8,400
- TD Kansas City, $3,700
No GPP Lineup this week. The reason for this is that on a two-game slate, there are so many different ways you can go this week and the margins are so thin that it's difficult to recommend just one lineup. The approach I would take is to take a game stack scenario. Many, many people are going to be on KC/Cin, so taking an approach of Stafford/Kupp/Deebo could make a lot of sense. The key is that you don't want to go too heavy on one game and still get a couple of pieces from the other game.
