Dominate Your League
A Footballguys Premium Subscription will give you the edge with lineup and waiver wire advice tailored to your league.
Save Time, Win More with Footballguys.Join Now
Season-long player props can be a fun way to cash in on your hunches about which players will have great seasons and which will disappoint. We typically cover weekly player props on Monkey Knife Fight and are excited to do so every week again this season. Stepping back and looking at the bigger picture of season-long props requires a similar analytical process, but some key variables are different. We do not care about a specific matchup or LIKELY game script. Instead, we are looking at how we expect the player's team will perform over the entire season to gauge whether game scripts will be favorable in a macro sense. Plus, durability becomes a key factor to consider.
With COVID-19 likely to wreak havoc on player availability again, the overall lean will be towards taking the under whenever we do not feel strongly about a player's odds of hitting the over comfortably. We are going to advise fading some outstanding players. However, there are also some season-long props listed below that are just too juicy to pass up the over. In fact, we will argue some are near locks to go over as long as the player can stay healthy. Let's dive into 10 of the most interesting, high-profile, season-long player props on Monkey Knife Fight.
Quarterbacks: More Passing Yards
Tom Brady More Than 4,550.5 Passing Yards
Footballguys Consensus Passing Yards Per Game: 301.9
Over the final 10 games of the 2020 regular season, Brady averaged 309.2 passing yards per game. The Tampa Bay offense looked unstoppable over stretches late in the season. We have seen Brady put up big numbers in this offense, and we are projecting Brady to throw for more than 5,000 yards if he plays 17 games. As mentioned above, if it is close, we go with the under. In this case, the projections are not particularly close. Brady should comfortably clear 4,550 passing yards if he hits anywhere near his ceiling.
Let's put on our imagination caps and think that maybe it took Tom Brady a bit of time to learn a new offense last season. You know, first time with a new coach/team in 20 years.— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) August 28, 2021
His 16-game pace from Weeks 10-17:
Brady arguably has both the best passing-game weapons of his entire career and the best in the entire NFL. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are talented players in the middle of their primes. Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are amongst the best players in NFL history at their positions. It took Brown and Gronkowski a bit of time to work their way into playing shape, but by the end of the 2020 season, both were mismatch nightmares for opposing defense. Plus, Brady now has a reliable pass-catching running back in Giovani Bernard. The pieces are all in place for Brady to challenge for the NFL passing yardage championship.
Durability Aside from serving a four-game suspension in 2016, Tom Brady has not missed a game since 2008. In terms of durability, he is the gold standard. He has shown an ability and willingness to play through injuries and has perfected a training and nutrition regimen that has proven incredibly effective at allowing him to stay on the field year after year.
Josh Allen More than 4,517.5 Passing Yards
Footballguys Consensus Passing Yards Per Game: 272.5
The Footballguys passing yardage consensus feels conservative here. The Bills increased their passing play percentage from 55.0% in 2019 to 61.7% in 2021. With the way Allen played down the stretch of the 2020 season, we could see that passing play percentage continue to increase. In fact, the Bills offense really hit its stride in 2020 once offensive coordinator Brian Daboll amped up the number of passing plays. "Balance is important if it’s working. If one of them (the run or the pass) is not working, you better not have too much balance. You better do the other thing more,” Daboll said last November. The starting offense played just one half in the 2021 preseason, and the offense was extremely pass-heavy.
What Bills fans saw from Josh Allen and the starting offense today is what us in the media have been seeing basically every single day at practice since training camp began. Been saying on the radio how good he and they have been, so it’s good to see that show up in front of fans— Sal Capaccio ðŸˆ (@SalSports) August 28, 2021
Durability Allen is one of the most physically imposing quarterbacks in the NFL. He has not missed a game during his two full seasons as the Bills starter.
Quarterbacks: Less Passing Yards
Justin Herbert Less Than 4,550.5
Footballguys Consensus Passing Yards Per Game: 281.3
Barring injury, this one should come down to the wire. If Herbert matches our projection of 281 passing yards per game, he would need to play all 17 games to hit the over. When it doubt, the default in 2021 should be to take the under. There are going to be some COVID-related missed games. There is the potential that Herbert would sit out a meaningless Week 17 game. There is an injury risk for every player. The value here is on the under because Herbert has so many realistic paths to going under and only a relatively narrow path to hitting the over.
Continue reading this article with a 100% free Insider subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, ESPN