Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.
Week 17 Review
Last Week: +2
Season Total: +8.6
We managed another winning week, hitting a 3X and a 4X.
Week 17 Picks
5: Chiefs-Bengals TDs (+3):
4: Rams-Ravens TDs: (-1)
3: Defensive Battle in Dallas: (+2)
2: MNF Stars: (-1)
We only hit one side of this one. Diontae Johnson had 17.1 fantasy points but Nick Chubb came up way short of the 14.5 fantasy points we needed. The Browns giving their best player just 12 touches was baffling.
1: Vikings-Packers TDs (-1)
We take the loss here, though in reality this one would not have been played once it was announced that Sean Mannion would be one of the starting quarterbacks.
5: Saturday Night Sleeper
Dak Prescott LESS than 250.5 passing yards
Jalen Hurts LESS than 195.5 passing yards
- Week 18 is all about finding edges in terms of how motivated teams are. This feels like a spot where we might be able to find some value due to motivation.
- The Eagles have clinched a Wild Card spot already. While a win would push them up to the 6th seed, it would likely mean a matchup against the Buccaneers (who would move up to the 3rd seed with a Cowboys loss). A loss would put the Eagles in the 7th seed, but the matchup would again likely be against Tampa Bay in this scenario.
- The Cowboys currently hold the fourth seed and would need help to move up. While they have some motivation to go out and get the win, they have already locked up the division and are going to face a major test in the first round, likely against the AFC West runner-up.
To correct this, the Cowboys getting the 2 seed would require:— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) January 4, 2022
- The Cowboys beating the Eagles
- The Panthers beating the Bucs
- The 49ers beating the Rams
- The Seahawks beating the Cardinals
I didn't have that last one in there in the original tweet.
- From a bigger picture perspective, both of these passing numbers are fair if we knew for sure both teams would play starters the whole game. If there is even a 10% chance that the starters are not out there in the second half, we are getting real value on the unders here. If one team jumps out to an early lead, do not be surprised to see the other pull some starters.
4: Bills-Jets Yards
Josh Allen MORE than 250.5 passing yards
Zach Wilson MORE than 183.5 passing yards
- We get a correlation play here in a game where we should expect both teams to be motivated. The Bills need a win to lock up the AFC East. While the Jets do no not need a win (it would hurt draft positioning), the franchise wants badly to end the season on a high not. The offseason will be much more pleasant for all involved if Zach Wilson can end the season on a high note against a division rival. He showed more flashes against Tampa Bay last week than we have seen in any game this season.
- The Footballguys consensus projection for Josh Allen is 283 yards, so we are getting major value on the over here. Zach Wilson is projected for 187 passing yards, so we are also getting a small amount of value there, also.
- In the previous meeting between these two teams, Allen threw for 366 yards and the Jets duo of Mike White and Joe Flacco threw for 298 yards.
- Allen has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his past three games against the Jets.
- No team has allowed a higher yards per attempt (8.2) or passer rating (104.7) than the Jets.
3: Passing overs in NO
Matt Ryan MORE than 195.5 passing yards
Taysom Hill MORE than 190.5 passing yards
We get a strong correlation play going in the same direction on both passing props.
We are getting serious value on the plus side of both of these props. The Footballguys consensus projection is 220 passing yards for Ryan and 204 for Hill.
Hill started two games against the Falcons last season, throwing for 230-plus yards in both outings.
The Saints have won three straight with Hill as the starter and are on the brink of locking up a playoff spot with a win and a 49ers loss.
Ryan has averaged 296 passing yards per game in 26 career starts against the Saints.
Ryan has thrown for 200-plus yards in 16 of his last 17 starts against New Orleans and torched the Saints for 343 yards on the road two months ago.
If you are into narratives, we should consider the possibility this will be Matt Ryan’s final game ever with the Falcons. He is going to want to go out on a high note.
Tomorrow’s @lockedonfalcons features @tori_mcelhaney to recap the #Falcons Week 17 loss, what will motivate the #Falcons in Week 18 and whether or not the Matt Ryan Era will come to end on Sunday.— Aaron Freeman (@falcfans) January 5, 2022
But watch it tonight at 8:30 pm ET!https://t.co/5GBbsfAIBP pic.twitter.com/mBpsDRkqxo
2: Passing Correlation in Baltimore
- The Monkey Knife Fight line of 12.5 fantasy points for Mark Andrews is the most puzzling of the weekend and one we want to look to take advantage of. The Footballguys Consensus Projection is 17.2 fantasy points for Andrews.
Greg Roman said TE Mark Andrews has always been a good player, but "we're seeing him grow into great right in front of our eyes."— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) January 6, 2022
Andrews leads all NFL tight ends in catches, yards and is tied for first in touchdowns.
- Andrews has topped 12.5 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games (88%).
- We are going with a small correlation play here by putting our chips on the passing games of both teams and fading the running games.
- While we do not want to go too far down the narrative rabbit hole, this is very likely to be Ben Roethlisberger’s final career start. The Steelers odds of making the playoffs are roughly 6% and everything seems to indicate this will be Roethlisberger’s final season. All else being equal, expect the Steelers to allow him some extra passing attempts, especially in the red zone.
- Roethlisberger was solid against the Ravens last month, throwing for 236 yards and 2 touchdowns with a QB rating of 111.8.
- As noted in the Footballguys Passing Matchups, this Ravens defense has become one of 2021’s purest examples of a “pass funnel” unit. Opponents are airing the ball out against the Ravens more than ever, a decision that’s panned out far more often than not. The Ravens have given up 400-plus passing yards in 25% of their games this season.
1: Rams-49ers Touchdowns
- The Footballguys Consensus Projection is 1.69 combined touchdowns for the Rams duo of Cooper Kupp and Sony Michel, a huge number that gives us a very realistic chance at tow or three combined touchdowns just between the two top Los Angeles options.
- From a touchdown expectation perspective, Michel is getting elite usage. Over the past five weeks he has 18 carries from inside the 10-yard line. He has four or more goal-to-go carries in four-of-five starts.
The LA Rams feel like a completely different team since RB Sony Michel has taken over. A very dangerous team in all three phases of the game.#LARams #RamsHouse #NFLTwitter https://t.co/cDj9jku4en pic.twitter.com/NS2xQ0nO3Y— Ramblin' Fan (@RamblinFan) January 5, 2022
- Cooper Kupp is averaging nearly a touchdown per game this season (15 touchdowns in 16 games).
- While the Week 10 matchup against the 49ers was one of the rare games Kupp did not get into the end zone, he did have 11 catches for 122 yards.
- The 49ers could be without three starting cornerbacks on Sunday. Kupp is hard enough to hold in check with a full strength defense. Against backups, Kupp should be able to finish up his 2021 season in style.
#49ers have added safety Jimmie Ward onto COVID reserve list with cornerbacks K’Waun Williams & Dontae Johnson, plus RB Raheem Mostert (on IR)— Cam Inman (@CamInman) January 4, 2022
Practice squad moves:
Re-signed RB Brian Hill
Cut P Colby Wadman
- Both defenses are allowing almost a touchdown per game to opposing backs. The Rams have given up 14 touchdowns while the 49ers have given up 15.
- Elijah Mitchell looks on track to start in a must-win game for the 49ers. He has emerged as a go-to offensive weapon, with 20-plus carries in each of his last four starts.
All eyes were on Jimmy Garoppolo’s thumb today, but it’s notable that this guy — Elijah Mitchell — was back at practice. Mitchell had a season-high 27 carries in earlier game vs. #Rams. pic.twitter.com/Zka0QaMDVa— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) January 6, 2022
- Mitchell has been getting strong usage in the scoring zone. He has touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line in three straight games.