Early season dynasty player valuation is all about gauging the market and the vantage point of either believing or deceiving by the data points of a game or two. Here are the critical dynasty players in the trade market after Week 1:
Quarterbacks
Taylor Heinicke: Budget-Busting Premium Format Pickup
Have pause investing heavily in Heinicke. Ryan Fitzpatrick is on the shelf with a hip injury for a projected two months and possibly longer. However, the key point is Heinicke has yet to stay healthy in the NFL and has been a nomad for years of passing interest by teams. While Heinicke is burning waiver budgets to the tune of >50% this week, explore adding Kyle Allen instead for 5% or less (or even FCFS following the waiver run). Allen was the Washington starter last season and could be the starter within a week or two if Heinicke's durability stays its previous course. Heinicke has a questionable build and plays with reckless abandon. Like a shooting star, Heinicke's light can extinguish almost as soon as it shines in the sky.
Mac Jones: Stability Enabled
Against a quality Miami defense, Jones continued his steady play from the preseason, showing timing and rhythm for the Patriots' passing game. Jones played a clean game and if not for a Damien Harris late-game fumble, would have notched a win as well. It is dreadfully early but Jones had the look of being a Superflex value within the 2021 class, commonly going in the late-first or early-second round of rookie drafts and easily QB5. Jones is on his way to being one of the best values on the board early in his career.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott: The End is Near
Is he done or just the focal point of a difficult Tampa Bay matchup and really having one goal line crack to post a passable fantasy game? Elliott had a big edge over Tony Pollard in snaps and Dallas had success through the air. Rostering the clear starter on a potent offense like Dallas with the historical profile of Elliott is a good thing. Do not overthink this one and snap sell off a poor season debut.
Najee Harris: Follow the Opportunity
Harris fit the workhorse moniker in his NFL debut, seeing 100% of the snaps. The production did not follow suit with an elite showing (49 total yards, 5.9 PPR points), but opportunity is key and benching a running back like Harris is a classic 'getting cute' move with lineup decisions. Harris also had a hearty four red zone opportunities, the touchdowns and overall production will come.
Elijah Mitchell: Running Back Revelation
Week 1 for the 49ers backfield was one of the surprising rides. Trey Sermon was inactive and Raheem Mostert exited the game early. It was Elijah Mitchell, not JaMycal Hasty, dominating the backfield with more than double the snaps of Hasty. Sermon is poised for a role in Week 2 with Mostert out for the season and Mitchell did see Hasty with more goal line and passing game work. Mitchell has already been sold in dynasty for a Round 1 pick straight up this week in the market and Travis Etienne. The sell window is open for Mitchell and for meaningful capital. This backfield can whiplash multiple times in the coming months and locking in a Round 2 pick plus a quality injury-away running back elsewhere, or even upgrading from Round 2 to Round 1, are strong historical plays.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks: Houston, We Have a Problem
The Texans were a punching bag this offseason between the lack of draft picks, Deshaun Watson, and the shell of a team. Week 1 resulted in a resounding win over Jacksonville with Tyrod Taylor hitting 331 total yards and no turnovers. This was not the plan. Also on display was clarity with the RB1 and WR1 roles as Mark Ingram had 26 carries and Brandin Cooks led the team in targets and hauled in notable downfield receptions. Is Houston better than the assumed worst team in the NFL this year? Ingram was on waiver wires as recently as last week in some leagues and Cooks has had minimal dynasty respect over the past few years with his regular NFL trading and yet to hit for a truly elite WR1 season. Even if Taylor and Houston's passing game ends up being Tier 4 for the season (QB25-32), the historical average finish for the attached WR1 for that level of a passing game is WR34, with a 40% chance at a top-24 finish. Cooks is poised to be a value yet again in his productive career.
Chiefs' WR2 Black Hole
Dynasty GMs want Mecole Hardman, of Round 2 pedigree, to be the answer behind Tyreek Hill. However, Hardman has been a disappointment to date. Demarcus Robinson is cheap. Byron Pringle is even cheaper as a stash. The trio combined for 5-35-0 in Week 1 as Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce dominated the Chiefs' passing game yet again. Clyde Edwards-Helaire almost matched the ancillary wide receivers' cumulative passing production on his own from the running back position. This is a square peg and round hole scenario. Hardman was a hyper-athletic but production meager wide receiver prospect who snared Round 2 pedigree and the alluring Kansas City landing spot. Liquid exits are still possible, but the insulation is fading. Expect the Chiefs to address the position if specifically Hardman does not work out this season in 2022. Recent trades to sell Hardman of interest include:
- Hardman for Tyler Higbee
- Hardman for 2nd
Pivoting to a 2nd or 3rd and an injury-away running back is another trade idea.
Tight Ends
O.J. Howard: Roster Albatross
It is tough to be optimistic about Howard, who posted a 6% snap share and was firmly behind Rob Gronkowski and, more surprisingly, Cameron Brate in the Tampa Bay rotation. While a Round 1 pedigree, Howard is buried at present and would project in a committee with Brate even if Gronkowski is out. Holding Howard is tough in 25 and fewer roster spot formats, especially if sitting as a team's TE3.
T.J. Hockenson: Elite Tier Party Crasher
While Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are off to a strong start as stalwarts of the tight end position, Hockenson is poised to join the top names. The Lions reek of garbage time with a questionable-at-best defense. Also, the Detroit wide receivers are a rag-tag bunch. Despite 38 completions, no Detroit receiver collected more than three receptions, with their two running backs and Hockenson snaring 63% of the team's reception total. Kyle Pitts was the flashy young tight end of the offseason, but Hockenson is the steak with substance, already with a quality NFL track record of production, and now a cleared-out opportunity with a good enough Jared Goff under center.
