Sunday Showdown Week 16

Photo: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. A swing pass to the third-string fullback can heavily alter the leader boards. Showdown can be a fun way to enjoy a Prime-Time game, or it can be an entire DFS portfolio. No matter the reason for playing, fortune favors the bold, and this article will never tell you a player is off-limits; even the third-string fullback. There are some cases where a great play will be so highly owned that their upside isn't worth losing the opportunity to be contrarian by fading them.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head lineups use median projections but a little variation goes a long way towards not getting duplicated.

Game Strategy

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys need to get their high-powered offense back on track before the end of the regular season. What better team to get right against than their division rivals? If Washington were a better team, perhaps some ownership would drop off the Dallas side of the ball due to their recent slump. Unfortunately, even with Taylor Heinicke back, Washington lacks the firepower to warrant more than one or two players per build. Managers are going to have to figure out how to get unique while still building heavily in favor of the Cowboys. As ten-point favorites, Ezekiel Elliot, and Tony Pollard should be lineups staples.

Captain Consideration

1. Antonio Gibson
2. Dak Prescott
3. Amari Cooper
4. CeeDee Lamb
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Terry McLaurin
7. Tony Pollard

Football Team Offense

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke $10,400 - Captain or Flex

Taylor Heinicke is returning from the Covid-19 list after Washington was forced to give Garret Gilbert the start last week. Heinicke has reached the bonus only once this season and has just one rushing touchdown, so his upside is extremely limited. He makes sense in lineups with four Cowboys, paired with one Football Team receiver, or Antonio Gibson.

Running Back

Antonio Gibson $8,400 – Captain or Flex

Antonio Gibson has averaged 5.5 targets per game since J.D. McKissic was lost for the season in week 12. That is just enough passing work to be worth considering pairing Gibson with Heinicke as the only two members of the Football Team. To be unique, Gibson can be played at Captain with Heinicke, and four Cowboys in hopes of a receiving touchdown.

Receiver

Terry McLaurin $8,800 – Flex

Given Terry McLaurin’s talent, he seems underpriced. Unfortunately, Washington has been unable to feature him in any capacity of late. His last game with more than 5 targets was week 12. Given McLaurin’s lack of recent production, he may go under-owned, especially with the plethora of viable receivers on the Dallas side of the ball. Betting on McLaurin’s ability, and hoping he can get back to the 10 targets he was receiving earlier in the year may be a wise decision.

Curtis Samuel $4,800 – Flex

Curtis Samuel was able to put in a limited practice and is now seemingly has a chance to play. Given Washington’s struggles to feature their best players, it seems difficult to believe that Samuel will be able to get involved. He has had more than 1 catch only once this year, and that was in week 4 before his re-injury. He should be $1,000 and would be an interesting target if that were the case.

Other Targets

Ricky Seals-Jones $4,600 - Flex

Ricky Seals-Jones has found himself more involved since Logan Thomas first injured himself, and especially of late since Thomas was lost for the year. He has quietly averaged nearly 6 targets per game since week 4 and is one of the only Washington players who should probably cost a bit more. Given his price and likely lack of ownership, Seals-Jones is one of Washington's strongest plays.

Cam Sims $2,000 – Flex

Cam Sims is only viable if Samuel manages to miss the game, as he is the only Washington receiver who would be earning snaps at a reasonable price tag. Adam Humphries and DeAndre Carter are both too expensive to find their way into lineups for any reason other than low-owned shots in the dark.

John Bates $2,200 - Flex

John Bates has had at least one target in each game, but one, since first seeing action. He is projected for a slightly lower market share than Seals-Jones, but is $2,400 less, and will go virtually unowned. In chalky lineups with five Cowboys, Bates is the perfect low-owned Washington run-back option to save ownership.

Cowboys Offense

Quarterback

Dak Prescott $11,400 – Captain or Flex

Dak Prescott has been struggling over the past three weeks, although the team has been able to put up reasonable totals. The last time he hit the 300-yard-bonus was week 12 against Las Vegas. Washington does not have enough offensive firepower to push Prescott for that type of performance but expect him to use this game at home against a division rival to clean up his act. Prescott should have an efficient game, but without a real ceiling projection, it’s better to roster Dallas position players at Captain and hope they connect for a receiving touchdown.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott $9,400 – Captain or Flex

Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have settled into a true 60/40 split. Their price differences are fair given their respective production. Elliot is a slightly more appealing captain given his recent work in the passing game for Cowboys onslaughts with Prescott. Managers tend to avoid rostering running backs from the same team in showdown even though it appears in the top 1% of lineups on a regular basis.

Tony Pollard $6,800 – Flex

Tony Pollard is cheap enough to warrant Captain consideration and can be played in lineups with Elliot to add uniqueness to a build. He has had over 10 opportunities in each of the last three games and has the bonus of being used as a kick returner. Feel free to roster Pollard, and the Cowboys defense for the old double dip should Pollard manage to score on a kick return as he did in week 12.

Receiver

CeeDee Lamb $10,000 - Captain or Flex

For much of the year, CeeDee Lamb’s price gap between him and Cooper did not match his production. Over the past three games, Lamb has separated himself from the rest of the Dallas receiving corps. Given the $2,200 difference, the field may be lower on Lamb and higher on Cooper. This week would be a great time to be overweight on Lamb in hopes that his trend of 9 or more targets per game continues for a fourth week.

Amari Cooper $7,800 – Captain or Flex

From a point-per-dollar perspective, Amari Cooper is essentially the same play as Lamb. He is averaging close to 5 targets per game over the past 3 weeks, which has been lower than his season average. He decided to voice his frustration with his recent lack of targets, and Prescott responded in agreement. Insert the squeaky wheel narrative here. Cooper should be more involved in the Cowboys offense, and Prescott seems to know this. Whether that results in action is yet to be seen, but Cooper fits well in Cowboy-heavy builds.

Michael Gallup $7,400 –Flex

Michael Gallup has played over 90% of the snaps in every week but one since week 11. He sees the field more often than Lamb given his position on the outside, which could help make up some of the ground in the target category. All three of the Cowboys receivers are viable at price and should be played together in Cowboys onslaughts with Prescott at Captain.

Other Targets -

Dalton Schultz $6,200 – Flex

Dalton Schultz is at risk of being lost in the shuffle with so much excitement to play the Dallas receivers. He has a commanding lead in Tight-end snaps with over 80% in each of the last 5 weeks. He is an awkward price where people may elect to go down to some cheaper Washington options to pay up for the expensive Dallas options. He has maintained a respectable target share of late and turned 8 targets last week into 8 catches, and a touchdown.