Unlock More Content Like This With a Footballguys Premium Subscription
"FBG is the best fantasy football advisory service anywhere."
Nigel Eccles, Co-Founder, FanDuel
An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. Dave Kluge has listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and lets you know what to do with them in Week 6's "Three Up, Three Down" article.
The first running back selected in this year’s drafts was already a dynasty darling. But fears of a timeshare with Michael Carter or Zach Wilson’s ability as a quarterback kept Breece Hall’s value suppressed throughout redraft season. It’s time to throw those concerns out the window. Hall is here to stay. He’s now the RB7 on the year, finishing as a top-15 PPR running back in four straight weeks. According to JJ Zachariason, Hall complied 43 percent of the Jets’ carries in the first three games and 65 percent in the last two. After Sunday’s game, he became the ninth player in NFL history to amass more than 25 targets and 50 carries in his first five games. Michael Carter vultured two goal-line scores, which hurt Hall’s overall performance, but his 197 scrimmage yards were still enough to finish as the week’s RB3 in PPR leagues. There’s always risk with rookies and how they will transition to the NFL. But scouts had a near-unanimous opinion that Hall was the top rookie coming into the league this year. He drew comparisons to Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor as the next elite talent in the league. A 4.39 40-yard dash and a 9.96 Relative Athletic Score painted the picture for his upside. But his ability to draw targets and rip off chunk plays through his first few weeks should clear any concerns about being a possible bust. Hall should be grouped in dynasty leagues with Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and whoever else is in your top tier. For redraft leagues, he should be viewed as a back-end RB1 with a ceiling as high as anyone else’s. If you’re in a league where someone thinks there’s an opportunity to sell high on Hall, sell the farm to get him.
I already covered Breece Hall. And I could have easily picked Ken Walker to write about this week. We will likely look back at Week 5 as the coming-out party for these rookie backs. Pierce rumbled his way to 113 scrimmage yards and a score, marking his third straight game with 100-plus yards and a touchdown. Pierce sits as the RB8 in PPR formats despite a slow start to the season. He’s seen his number of opportunities go up in all but one week so far this year. According to PFF, Pierce’s 17 missed tackles against the Jaguars on Sunday were the most they have ever recorded in a single game. Pierce was a fourth-round pick who landed in a less-than-favorable situation. Because of that, he was a very polarizing player in the offseason. Managers who took the risk of drafting Pierce now feel great about their decision. He’s fourth in the league in rushing yards and sixth in carries. With just 15 targets on the year, he hasn’t been especially involved as a pass-catcher. That could limit his upside, and it’s tough banking on 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground every week. But after just four total targets in his first three weeks, Pierce has seen six and five over his last two outings. There might be time to nab Pierce from a leaguemate before he completely takes over as a true workhorse. Going forward, Pierce should be valued as a top-20 running back with good potential to finish the year as an RB1.
Continue reading this content with a PRO subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE